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PhillipS

Greenland Melt Discussion

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gis is about to get horse torched

I'd be surprised if this happened over Greenland. The NAEFS 8-14 day temp probabilities are much more reliable than OP model runs. No torch detected near Greenland

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/[email protected][email protected][email protected]@[email protected]_186.png

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The GFS and Euro both break out a big torch

ClassiC stalled vortex to the South pumping warm moist air into GIS while a major ridge sits on top.

The models show days on end with 5-10C 850s along the W/SW/SE coast of GIS.

this is the classic major melt signal.

I'd expect albedo to plummet with major melt ponds before July 1

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Greenland is so far behind on melt this year that we will never catch up to 2012 or probably even last year. There is only like 7 weeks left of major melting with max insolation as we wasted most of June with the cold pattern after no preconditioning in May.

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It looks like DMI has removed the sea level contribution charts as i don't see them on the site anymore.  Albedo is much better when compared to last year at this time because of the slow start to the season.

 

post-1243-0-08015200-1435329979_thumb.gi

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So it begins...

 

greenland_melt_area_plot_tmb.png

Melt has vigorously picked up. And the biggest torching during this -NAO is just starting.

The graphic above shows 30-35% For the past 10 days.

Given the modeled temps the next 10 days. I would think it will jump to 40-50% average with a one day peak of 65-75%.

ASTA around GIS have blown up.

Snow is mostly gone on the land areas. Albedo is finally plummeting.

Late start but major melt underway.

If this pattern holds the next 7 weeks then this year will abruptly be bad.

post-917-0-06562400-1435652595_thumb.gif

post-917-0-21894400-1435652624_thumb.gif

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Melt has vigorously picked up. And the biggest torching during this -NAO is just starting.

The graphic above shows 30-35% For the past 10 days.

Given the modeled temps the next 10 days. I would think it will jump to 40-50% average with a one day peak of 65-75%.

ASTA around GIS have blown up.

Snow is mostly gone on the land areas. Albedo is finally plummeting.

Late start but major melt underway.

If this pattern holds the next 7 weeks then this year will abruptly be bad.

attachicon.gifRtavn422.gif

attachicon.gifRtavn902.gif

You have about 4 weeks before Greenland melt will decline quickly (climo). Your "7 weeks" is a stretch.

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Amazing we had the winter we did with a strong +NAO.

 

In any case, models show Greenland finally warming up as a ridge builds into the area. This is after a few more days of cold conditions with -10C 850s atop the ice sheet..A lot of cold continues to get dumped into the United Kingdom and Northern Europe where 850s are below 0C in many areas even in the middle of June, and this should accelerate with a significant trough moving into Spain/France as the NAO declines in the coming week.

 

Shouldn't have been so 'amazing' frankly.  

 

I realize I am but one voice opposed to a shrill din of bandwagoneers .. but no, 'been pounding the "NAO over rated drum" for a number of years. 

 

But hey - the only way to heard is to published so, taken fwiw -

 

The EPO domain space and its timed relay into mode changes in the PNA, together serve as the primary cold loading patterns over N/A. The NAO is merely an assist, but not required.

 

People pull statistics out of the cherry tree that show that x-y-z years were negative NAOs when more snow occurred, thus the natural conclusion is a-b-c. But no, ..that is all more likely because there is a weak negative correlation in the PNA/NAO relationship. Such that a rising PNA tends concurrently with a falling NAO over the longer term.  Retrograde events do take place from time to time, but the rest state is west to east...

 

NAO doesn't dictate snow events people.  In fact, a "statically" negative NAO is a suppress flow exertion and that causes perturbations in the atmosphere to dampen/shear.  The NAO may have positive last year on the whole, but I bet you dimes to donuts it was fluctuating up and down, above 0 SD, as the PNA/EPO were doing their thing.   

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Latest from NSIDC on GIS surface melting:

 

greenland_melt_area_plot_tmb.png

 

I believe it is safe to say that recent surface melting has made up for the slow start to the melt season.  I wonder is some of the acceleration of the surface melting is due to the snow melting off and exposing the darker surface of the glacial ice.  Here is the albedo change plot from DMI:

 

Alb_SM_EN_20150704.png

 

The DarkSnow team, led by Dr Jason Box, is now in Greenland studying the processes that affect the albedo of glacial ice.  If you haven't visited their website [link], it's worth a read

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Greenland is beginning to make up for it's slow start.  The model ENS are pretty warm for the next week as well.

 

accumulatedsmb.png

 

Little chance it makes it to the drop of 2012, but interesting to see how much ground a short period of time can "make up"

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Holy ****.

Really that is incredible.

That's a huge area that is only 1000-1500M up on the most gentle slopes in Greenland.

So there is a large surface area open to major melt.

Above 1500M is much tougher to get that

aobNV6y.jpg

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Still pretty strong melt in Greenland.  Models show the ice sheet cooling off later this week, which should slow losses a bit.  Compare this to 2013 or 2014 and we are way ahead.

 

2015:

 

 

 

SMB_combine_SM_acc_EN_20150720.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013:

SMB_combine_SM_acc_EN_20130715.png2014:

2014:

SMB_combine_SM_acc_EN_20140721.png

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