Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 hmm I missed that It was a clear character attack..so rather than stoop down to the ghetto..I chose to rise above and move on. Still think we need to watch Tuesday nights clipper. GGEM and some ensemble support for a quick hitter pike south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 It was a clear character attack..so rather than stoop down to the ghetto..I chose to rise above and move on. Still think we need to watch Tuesday nights clipper. GGEM and some ensemble support for a quick hitter pike south Euro has that on Pennsylvania pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Euro has that on Pennsylvania pike. Remember 2 days ago when the Euro had yesterdays snow as a miss? Not saying that happens here..but with no blocking and climo..that at least argues north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Remember 2 days ago when the Euro had yesterdays snow as a miss? Not saying that happens here..but with no blocking and climo..that at least argues north But...in that situation the euro was an outlier. Now it's in the envelop of the majority of the guidance so it should be weighed higher. I'm not a net...but I did sleep in a holiday inn last night and you didnt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 It's anywhere close to the shore. Seabreeze is a localized affect, and is effected by finite difference in air mass across relatvely smaller distance. That's why the gradients between the pre and post SB boundary is so intense. Here'a a question I've always had...what determines the shallowness of a BDCF? Does it all depend on the gradient along the boundary? I know BDCF's are typically very shallow in nature, one reason they typically aren't great producers of convection or severe convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 They were there, and real... just didn't pan out. Having said that, a lot of us started warning that winter's back might be broken when we discussed March as a spring month back whence. If not, certainly it was carrying around a piano of a seasonal change signal. We just started from such a low anomalous state, that the climb out could certainly have performed better. Buuut, spring is fickle round dees pahts... We could be 60-70 for a week and still get bowling blue-balled, too 19 inches of snow -5.5 helluva way to break a back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Spring appeal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 PF I'm not sure why you wouldn't read an obviously educated met's thoughts who has an entertaining way of using the English language to give his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 I'm not sure why you wouldn't read an obviously educated met's thoughts who has an entertaining way of using the English language to give his thoughts.whoooosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjr Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 It was a clear character attack..so rather than stoop down to the ghetto..I chose to rise above and move on. Still think we need to watch Tuesday nights clipper. GGEM and some ensemble support for a quick hitter pike south Maybe you should go back and read what you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Spring appeal Steve, it's spring...it's been spring for some time. And, it began as it usually does, in March, this year... Get over it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Steve, it's spring...it's been spring for some time. And, it began as it usually does, in March, this year... Get over it - John, doesn't feel or look like it, Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Here'a a question I've always had...what determines the shallowness of a BDCF? Does it all depend on the gradient along the boundary? I know BDCF's are typically very shallow in nature, one reason they typically aren't great producers of convection or severe convection. That just really comes down to the amount of mass being transported behind the front. If it's a big jolted +PP response NE and the environmental set-up permits its displacement toward the SW, it's going to come in thick and lift the antecedent air mass up into the evacuation depths ...essentially completely cycling the troposphere. They can be that momentous. Others are feeble and are transporting less mass, and may only be in the bottom 200 or 300 mb of the atmosphere. In fact, often when these shallower boundaries come through, dark and ragged based CU may drift quite a ways out over the BD air mass before dissipating. Others may be weak BDs, but the sea-breeze sort of collocates with it, and intensifies its immediate effectiveness on modulating an afternoon. You just sort of get a feel for what form a particular BD is likely to take after watching a decades worth of weather charts and suffering their incursions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Kevinyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 John, doesn't feel or look like it, Steve Yeah, well I grant you that... But, it was espoused back when that it would not be a rapid transition. But that shouldn't matter. Climate defines March as a spring month. That's the end of it... If it snows ..particularly after the ides of March, its known in climate and the Meteorological communities as SPRING snow for a reason. Aside, I agree that for those that want warmth and real bona fide "feel" to transition season, it's been a slow and arduous journey this year. However, there are more days above 32 now, chilly or not, and the snow has actively receded over the last three weeks. You start with 45" ...yeah, of course there still snow on the ground. Having said that... yeah, one thing I also agree with is that there's really no boundaries in time/space wrt to the weather. Or for specific weather entities and events, for that matter. There use to be tropical and extra-tropical lows. Then, there became necessities for "subtropical" or even more amorphously, 'hybrid' lows, because the thermodynamics/physics of cyclones can have not only simultaneous processes, they can happen in unequal measures. The same should really hold for seasonal transitions. In 2012, spring cam in November! Does anyone remember the weird green up around Thanks G ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 That just really comes down to the amount of mass being transported behind the front. If it's a big jolted +PP response NE and the environmental set-up permits its displacement toward the SW, it's going to come in thick and lift the antecedent air mass up into the evacuation depths ...essentially completely cycling the troposphere. They can be that momentous. Others are feeble and are transporting less mass, and may only be in the bottom 200 or 300 mb of the atmosphere. In fact, often when these shallower boundaries come through, dark and ragged based CU may drift quite a ways out over the BD air mass before dissipating. Others may be weak BDs, but the sea-breeze sort of collocates with it, and intensifies its immediate effectiveness on modulating and afternoon. You just sort of get a feel for what form a particular BD is likely to take after watching a decades worth of weather charts and suffering their incursions. The BDCF which was responsible for the huge hail in CT in June of 1995...that was obviously a strong BDCF given it was able to provide sufficient lift in order to get > golf ball hail, but do you recall the process behind why that front was so potent. Was there a s/w involved such like you mentioned above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 The BDCF which was responsible for the huge hail in CT in June of 1995...that was obviously a strong BDCF given it was able to provide sufficient lift in order to get > golf ball hail, but do you recall the process behind why that front was so potent. Was there a s/w involved such like you mentioned above? Got to be careful there, too - I recall that.. I don't think the BD was particularly strong. But, shear components in the vertical were fantastic. I think I recall a hodo g that was like perfectly wound up, if memory serves. Ryan might actually know? Anyway, I remember that day, and watching that sucker on Rad up at UML's lab. The anvil debris spread clear across back through eastern Ma. It as a very envious afternoon Good positive shear, and good in situ SB/ML CAPE don't need particularly strong triggers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Spring appealnice better snow sig on the satellite and s ri than most of sne....lol march 29....ridiculous...bid ftw...hope the cod show up soon!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Spring appealhttp://i1103.photobucket.com/albums/g462/steveginx/Mobile%20Uploads/Screenshot_2015-03-29-14-58-21-1_1.png nice snow hole in my area. AIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Got to be careful there, too - I recall that.. I don't think the BD was particularly strong. But, shear components in the vertical were fantastic. I think I recall a hodo g that was like perfectly wound up, if memory serves. Ryan might actually know? Anyway, I remember that day, and watching that sucker on Rad up at UML's lab. The anvil debris spread clear across back through eastern Ma. It as a very envious afternoon Good positive shear, and good in situ SB/ML CAPE don't need particularly strong triggers.. yeah I would think vertical shear values were probably quite high...and of course some pretty elevated helicity values...otherwise you wouldn't get hail that big lol. Typically you don't have shear values like that associated with BDCF's so obviously the shear was associated with something else...crest of the mlvl ridge? (I could probably just go to EWALL to find this out but I'm already distracting myself enough from studying lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 yeah I would think vertical shear values were probably quite high...and of course some pretty elevated helicity values...otherwise you wouldn't get hail that big lol. Typically you don't have shear values like that associated with BDCF's so obviously the shear was associated with something else...crest of the mlvl ridge? (I could probably just go to EWALL to find this out but I'm already distracting myself enough from studying lol) Glad to have been of service! Muah hahahaha j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 tues night and wed the last to the south of us snow til next season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Oh Nammy with more spring appeal. Windexy to close the month then synoptic snows to open Napril Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Glad to have been of service! Muah hahahaha j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 well if the nam is too far nw its prob congrats acy to belmar to mtk to bid and ack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowciopath Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Rgem at 54hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 tues night and wed the last to the south of us snow til next season? I wouldn't say that with certainty, no.. This is a slower transition type of spring this go. It's more likely that we alternate between warm appeals and languished snow chances, while in time, favoring the former of the two. Probably before the end of April we can say that, whereas other years, ...one could be more comfortable saying so in March. I would caution, however, that 7 of the warmest N/A years in history took place in the last 12 hours, and of those... I think 4 were so for the four climo sites of SNE, and despite that warm result... we have seen snow in 5 of those Mays. Will can check those numbers, but I think that's fairly close enough. Close enough to make the point. Even in "comfortable" years... I don't think I'd put that pistol up to my temple, tho - not on March 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Rgem at 54hr Wow. Pretty stark differences between the 18z GFS and the RGEM run, lol. The 54 hour panels are just a little different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowciopath Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Wow. Pretty stark differences between the 18z GFS and the RGEM run, lol. The 54 hour panels are just a little different. gfs_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Lol yup... This system is currently in NW Canada, so hopefully the RGEM and GEM have some insider info that the GFS and EURO aren't picking up on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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