Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

To the south of Ft. Worth 

 

[radarman]

The Godley cell...  JoCo EM says not a lot of damage but notes a few trees down.

 

[cheese007]

Watch extended until 1AM for parts of DFW

[NTXYankee]

Watch extended until 1AM for parts of DFW

Based on trends I don't really know why, the storms are having a difficult time

[cheese007]

Based on trends I don't really know why, the storms are having a difficult time

Yeah I was confused too. Subsidence is expected to take out any storms that manage to form along the dryline

[bubba hotep]

Looks like anything north of I20 is really struggling in the DFW area.

[Quixotic1]

Looks like anything north of I20 is really struggling in the DFW area.

Thats twice I've gotten nada. The old yard is starting to crack.

ETA: hoping the secondary line blows up.

[raindancewx]

I don't know necessarily believe this but...the NAM isn't always wrong. That would be our top April snowstorm in decades for Albuquerque.

 

[NTXYankee]

Looks like anything north of I20 is really struggling in the DFW area.

That is where models really blew up storms too. The ones south of 20 though are starting to lose some steam. Guess after three good events Mother Nature said not this time.

[bubba hotep]

Well this was a dud.

Yea, there was always a good chance of that for the DFW area. The setup was just kind of sloppy from the synoptic scale on down. That Pacific impulse had pretty bad timing and couldn't over come the cap this morning. Then it looks like there was just enough lingering subsidence behind it to keep things from going off this afternoon. Maybe we will get a surprise late tonight as the cold front overtakes the dryline, the atmosphere sure wasn't worked over this evening

 

ETA: The funny thing is that, IMBY, we have gotten 3 rounds of rain today and are over an inch total. 

[bubba hotep]

Few cells trying to make one last run off the dryline? 

[bubba hotep]

The next 7-10 days looks pretty boring.

[NTXYankee]

The next 7-10 days looks pretty boring.

Indeed though not a bad thing, I get more work done and first couple weeks are our busy time. Less time looking at model trends, SPC discussion, and radars.

[aggiegeog]

A cool 50 degrees and off and on showers to start off April, I'll take it.

[bubba hotep]

FWD put out a monthly outlook graphic today and I can't remember them doing that since moving to the area:

 

 

When you look to the longer range for some clues the current MJO isn't any help, there for a while it looked encouraging but then collapsed into the COD and looks to stay there:

 

So where do we go from there? The AAM/GWO is always something to look at and this paper should be of interest to anyone who digs springtime svr wx . It is a short simple read with a ton of great references, some that I've read before and some that I will be reading. They point to GWO Phase 8 - 2 as possibly being the ones to focus on in the the MAMJ time frame. This what I consider the key graphic:

 

 

And what do the models show coming up here as we move towards mid-April and the dates that FWD highlighted:

 

 

and the corresponding teleconnections:

 

 

The ensembles seem to support this with the Euro being on the slower side of the window and the GFS being on the faster side. Then beyond that, the weeklies seem to support us being wet to the end of April and Texas doesn't do wet April with gentle rain showers. Watching this unfold will at least make the next week of boring nice weather go by faster Also, flipping through some analogs for this period doesn't seem to help with '98 still being horrible. If you factor in the cold N. Atlantic and ignore everything else, you get some interesting matches but who knows how that will hold up. 

[bubba hotep]

Pretty good agreement b/w the Euro EPS and GEFS that we return to wetter conditions beyond D10. Below is the 00z GEFS but the 00z Euro EPS looks similar:

 

[raindancewx]

Need 0.02" in April to avoid Feb-Apr 2016 ending up as the driest Feb-Apr period since at least 1931 in Albuquerque.

 

I have no idea how to guess what will happen during the Monsoon with any skill, but my inclination is August is way overdue to be wet, and July is due to quiet down locally, with September doing whatever it is set to do, probably dry if the La Nina kills East Pacific hurricanes. June is often pretty wet in La Ninas, but the El Nino is likely to still be around atmospherically. 

 

On a five-year basis August is about as dry as it's ever been (0.9" avg, normal is 1.5"), while July (2.55", normal is 1.35") is about as wet as it's ever been on a five year basis. I lean towards something like for summer in Albuquerque/NM:

 

H2 June: 0.5" (mild,wet)

July: 1.0" (dry, very hot)

Aug: 2.2" (mild, wet)

Sep: 0.3" (mild, dry)

 

 

Hopefully, it would then rain/snow a lot in October. The city tends to be snowy in March (93% chance of snow) if the prior August & October were both wet. 

 

[bubba hotep]

Need 0.02" in April to avoid Feb-Apr 2016 ending up as the driest Feb-Apr period since at least 1931 in Albuquerque.

 

I have no idea how to guess what will happen during the Monsoon with any skill, but my inclination is August is way overdue to be wet, and July is due to quiet down locally, with September doing whatever it is set to do, probably dry if the La Nina kills East Pacific hurricanes. June is often pretty wet in La Ninas, but the El Nino is likely to still be around atmospherically. 

 

On a five-year basis August is about as dry as it's ever been (0.9" avg, normal is 1.5"), while July (2.55", normal is 1.35") is about as wet as it's ever been on a five year basis. I lean towards something like for summer in Albuquerque/NM:

 

H2 June: 0.5" (mild,wet)

July: 1.0" (dry, very hot)

Aug: 2.2" (mild, wet)

Sep: 0.3" (mild, dry)

 

 

Hopefully, it would then rain/snow a lot in October. The city tends to be snowy in March (93% chance of snow) if the prior August & October were both wet. 

 

 

It was a dry March in the SW for sure:

 

[bubba hotep]

The ensembles are starting to shift the rainfall anomalies westward in the longer range and that matches pretty well with what the Euro weeklies were showing.  

 

[bubba hotep]

Welcome back! WPC D6&7 QPF

 

[raindancewx]

Weatherbell has NM/TX within 1F of normal (+ or -) for June-August. Seems cool to me, we're going to roast here if it stays bone dry through May/June.

[Roy]

Is it looking cool and wet into early May at times at least in general terms right now? I want to go to the Renaissance Festival this year, but all my April weekends are being taken up by high school journalism events except this weekend. My wife can't take much heat, so want to go when it's hopefully not 85-90ish....

[bubba hotep]

'16 continues to lag behind '83, '92 and '98 and based on analogs things look kind of bleak:

 

 

 

Good thing '16 has been doing it's own thing this whole time. We look wet AMJ

[Quixotic1]

Take away the first few days of 98, and 16 is almost a mirror image.

[raindancewx]

I'm fairly optimistic for Apr-Jun moisture here. The Gulf of Mexico hurricanes that (likely) develop July/Aug should interfere with the predominant patterns in the Summer in interesting ways.

[bubba hotep]

Take away the first few days of 98, and 16 is almost a mirror image.

That is kind of scary because '98 goes bone dry for AMJ. Luckily, '97/98 has been a pretty bad analog up to this point.

[Roy]

Analogs work until they don't, so we will see, just hope being the first Nina that will help us stay wetter. The trend seems to be a little bit drier now for next week, so hope that doesn't get worse.

[jdrenken]

Speaking of the day 5...

 

 

 

Testing: Severe Weather Pattern Projection Based on the Recurring Rossby Wave Train, Bering Sea Rule, and Typhoon Rule. The RRWT oscillation period average is used to project the initial future date that is expected to hold similar weather pattern ingredients as previous oscillation period weather patterns, +/- 3 days. The projections will be maintained once the projection date is ~30 days from realization. Methods used to confirm original projection will consist of modeled BSR(~30 days), current RRWT oscillation period(~30 days), observed BSR(~20 days), modeled TR(~16 days), observed TR(~8 days), and GFS/GEM/EURO model guidance(~3 days).

[bubba hotep]

Latest thinking from FWD:

 

[Chinook]

The GFS predicts pretty decent CAPE and shear ahead of the advancing dryline on Monday. This could kick off several discrete storms with 0-6km shear of around 45kts. We'll have another 3 days of model runs before this happens.