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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Late night/early morning storms are always worrisome because there's no way of knowing what kind of boundaries they will leave behind. Like you said, any discrete cells that fire in the afternoon could have a volatile environment to work with.

It doesn't sound like a mcs type issue this time around Tuesday night unlike the one a few weeks ago, so that should help.

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Calderon

Calderon

Posted
Posted

It doesn't sound like a mcs type issue this time around Tuesday night unlike the one a few weeks ago, so that should help.

Which could further complicate the forecast for Wednesday. That said, things could change but I'd expect a few SVR elevated hailers overnight Tuesday and where those boundaries setup depends on intensity, horizontal mixing, and so on that are still too far beyond short-term models. 

 

I would stay very aware for Wednesday, it could be the first hefty setup for the Metroplex this spring. 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Which could further complicate the forecast for Wednesday. That said, things could change but I'd expect a few SVR elevated hailers overnight Tuesday and where those boundaries setup depends on intensity, horizontal mixing, and so on that are still too far beyond short-term models. 

 

I would stay very aware for Wednesday, it could be the first hefty setup for the Metroplex this spring. 

 

Maybe we will get an extra balloon launch from FWD on Wed

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Well...looks like nine drier than normal Marches in a row for me. I should have followed my own research. When we get >2.7" precip in Aug+Oct there is a 93% (!) shot of snow in the following March, and March averages 31% above normal precip. 

 

Funny thing is we haven't had >2.7" in Aug+Oct since 2006. In the super drought (PDO-, AMO+) of the late 40s-50s we had a similar period, with a huge gap in rainy Aug+Oct from 1946-1956 (inclusive, 11 years), comparable to the dry Aug+Octs of 2007-2015 (inclusive, nine years).

 

When we get <1.53" rain in August+October we only average snow in ~50% of the following Marches. Usually drier than normal too.

 

The good news is the cyclical nature of August+October rainfall implies we're due for a string of wet Augusts and Octobers. Once that happens, winter should be back in full force in the SW for a long-term era.

 

t9RtAZT.jpg

 

VxTmbNE.jpg

 

Cool stuff! I'll be back out that way in May and I'm hoping for some interesting weather. 

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

We're likely about to end our longest streak of months with measurable precipitation in Albuquerque since the mid 1990s - every month from Feb 2014 to Feb 2016 has had rain or snow - 25 months (inclusive). No streak longer than that since 1993-1995.

 

All it would take would be 0.01" of precip in March to extend the streak...but March precip is apparently impossible right now.

 

Anyone have ideas for the monsoon this year?

 

El Nino years that went to La Nina or Cold Neutral include:

1942, 1946, 1954, 1959, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1978. 1983, 1988, 1995, 1998, 2005, 2007, 2010

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

New D3, SPC mentions upgrades possible in the southern areas 

 

CenqiWjVAAAdYZH.jpg

 

FWD thinking from the night AFD:

 

AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION INCREASES LATE TUESDAY...SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE
MOISTURE IS MOST ABUNDANT. HOWEVER...THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
BE CAPPED BY AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALOFT PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING INITIALLY. HOWEVER...STRONGER
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS CUTOFF LOW.
VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE AIDED BY THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK POSITIONED OVER NORTH
TEXAS.

A SURFACE DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER IN THE DAY. ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP IN
MIND REGARDING THE DRYLINE POSITION WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS MAY INHIBIT THE EASTWARD MIXING OF THE
DRYLINE IN WHICH CASE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WOULD BE INFLUENCED
PRIMARILY THROUGH ADVECTION FROM THE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT. THIS
MAY CAUSE ITS POSITION TO BE FURTHER WEST THAN SOME GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN ADVERTISING. AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING ARRIVES...THE EML
CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LIFTED AND
COOLED...ELIMINATING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND ALLOWING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
THE 700-500MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN FAT CAPE PROFILES WITH VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40 KTS
OR GREATER WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL STORM MODE.
LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT WITH SURFACE BASED
STORMS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO
THREAT WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...VEERED WIND
PROFILES WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE WOULD LEAD TO
RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FAVORING SPLITTING STORMS AND
REDUCING STORM RELATIVE HELICITY...POSSIBLY ACTING TO REDUCE THE
TORNADO THREAT. WE SHOULD GET A BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE
AND THE SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION AS WE MOVE INTO TIME RANGE OF
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

IMO, it is kind of pointless to look at finer details too far out but I haven't seen any wide sweeping hodos that would suggest large amounts of storm relative helicity. It seems that is more a reflection of the larger scale synoptic setup not favoring a widespread area of enhanced tornado potential, at this time. However, unresolved mesoscale features could enhance the risk in localized areas within the warm sector over N. Texas. 

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Not sure but it looks like a fetch of pacific moisture that will replace an EML that will provide a cap. If it arrives at night or early morning, no big deal. During the afternoon at peak heating would basically leave us uncapped.

But I'm a layman. :0)

Hah! You guessed better than I did though.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Kind of along those lines, I was thinking that the jet streak associated with that enhances upper level divergence when it comes in setting off storms (earlier or later depending on timing) (This is my simplified way of looking at, obviously a lot more going on when you start thinking about Q-G theory and what not). Last week we waited on the dryline to fire and then when that didn't happen had to wait for lift from the trough to spread over the area. The models seem to struggle with impulses coming out of the Pacific, so we might be in for some surprises or late model shifts. For an example, think back to last week, the flow was pretty uniform at 12z on Wednesday but this Wednesday looks totally different at 12z with the Pacific impulse thrown in:

 

Last week Wed 12z

 

gfs_uv250_namer_3.png

vs. this Wed at 12z 

 

gfs_uv250_namer_9.png

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

Anyone have an April forecast? I think the Omega Block pattern will repeat to some degree with the NW drying/warming. SW likely due for some good rain/snow - STJ usually merges with the Polar jet once or twice in the Spring in El Nino years, less warmth against average than Feb-Mar. Texas/SE/CA/Mexico drier than March

 

I'm looking forward to seeing when we next get >=2.7" rain in August+October - it's been nine years, but it's happened ~29 times in 85 years. Last streak <2.7" of comparable length was 1946-1956...it's due to end soon. 93% of Marches following a wet August/October (>=2.7") get snow (27/29) here...so it's interesting that we haven't reached 2.7" in almost a decade.

 

tjFt7Mj.png

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

You asked analogs last night so this is off the top of my head: 59, 83, 73 and 98. Just going by really strong niños. 83 was either a negative neutral or weak Nina. The others went strong. The models seem to indicate a pretty stout flip so I would tend to punt on 83. The other three would look good.

I would take 59 and 83 instantly. They ended up being good winters locally. 73 and 98 were disasters. 98 we were still hitting 100 in October. It was miserably hot and dry. The winter had one cold snap with flurries. Ugh..

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Latest thinking from FWD:

 

WEDNESDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY ACTIVE DAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY A 150 KNOT JET ORIENTED FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. TWO MODES OF CONVECTION ARE LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FIRST BEING ORGANIZED STORMS ON AN EASTWARD
MOVING DRYLINE AND THE SECOND BEING MORE DISCRETE STORMS OR
MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR TO
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DRYLINE WILL MOST LIKELY NOT ENTER WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

 

CetvK83XIAA1HVu.jpg

 

CetjzYmXIAADxsJ.jpg

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

You asked analogs last night so this is off the top of my head: 59, 83, 73 and 98. Just going by really strong niños. 83 was either a negative neutral or weak Nina. The others went strong. The models seem to indicate a pretty stout flip so I would tend to punt on 83. The other three would look good.

I would take 59 and 83 instantly. They ended up being good winters locally. 73 and 98 were disasters. 98 we were still hitting 100 in October. It was miserably hot and dry. The winter had one cold snap with flurries. Ugh..

 

Lock it up :lol:  Based on trends the past few months, bet the heat until it is a loser. 

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Nam 4k continues to be on the tame side for the DFW area. It seems to be focusing on areas to the east. It looks like it tries to fire off the dryline but those cells are short lived.

I don't follow the 4K that much as it always seems off to me. WRF says dryline activity so there is hope. Gut says we see sun and dryline slower like last time but gut can be wrong too

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

I don't follow the 4K that much as it always seems off to me. WRF says dryline activity so there is hope. Gut says we see sun and dryline slower like last time but gut can be wrong too

4k seems to be best of the NAMs but that isn't an award anyone wants! The theme across the models seems to be kind of random unorganized convection firing off from smaller impulses in the warm sector tomorrow. That could make for a low confidence forecast with a lot of wait and see what happens in the afternoon.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Latest thinking from FWD:

 

Ceu3piKWQAIvvGy.jpg

 

CevpjR0WEAAy28Z.jpg

Looks kind of similar to last Wednesday, then everything shifted West, so I say crap shoot at this point :popcorn:

 

Interesting enough, the NAM 4K increases dewpoints to 70-72 in this area tomorrow afternoon, increasing surface cape, and other parameters on the 18z run.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Dryline is sharpening up nicely across the Panhandle this evening. The HRRR wants to move some storms through the area late morning and the 24hr Experimental HRRR sets off the dryline in the evening sending another round of storms through DFW. 

 

ayrpef.png

NAM is also showing morning storms, but both models seem to hint at pretty good clearing behind it and capes approaching 2,000+. Always concerned when seeing that morning stuff though.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

NAM is also showing morning storms, but both models seem to hint at pretty good clearing behind it and capes approaching 2,000+. Always concerned when seeing that morning stuff though.

 

The trend today on the 4k NAM has certainly been towards making the dryline more active tomorrow evening. As of right now, it looks like north of I-20 up into southern Oklahoma might be the area to watch. It will be interesting to see what the Euro shows in a few hours. 

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

The trend today on the 4k NAM has certainly been towards making the dryline more active tomorrow evening. As of right now, it looks like north of I-20 up into southern Oklahoma might be the area to watch. It will be interesting to see what the Euro shows in a few hours.

I was just watching the 4k come in now (like watching election returns, lol). It has 70 degree dewpoints to Oklahoma, if that happens that would be insane. Tornado parameters not too shabby either.

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