Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[cstrunk]

Drier Austin is going to take me some time to get used to.

 

You moved to the wrong part of the country if you want to see rain all the time. Austin is not in a tropical climate. It will be characterized by higher intensity precipitation events but they are typically more infrequent.

[NTXYankee]

Latest run of the HRRR and 4K NAM are developing heavy rain across DFW well ahead of the main line. 4k NAM has 5"+ across parts of Dallas and Collin County.

Latest runs of HRRR still popping cells over us later this evening around 8 or 9 guess we shall see what happens.

[bubba hotep]

HRRR has backed off the blob of heavy rain across DFW but now has more discrete looking cells out ahead of the main line across DFW. That is a bit concerning...

[jm1220]

You moved to the wrong part of the country if you want to see rain all the time. Austin is not in a tropical climate. It will be characterized by higher intensity precipitation events but they are typically more infrequent.

This is essentially the dividing line between the more arid and humid parts of Texas, as well as the upland/plains divide in Texas. It explains the large diversity of wildlife and plants/trees, as well as being in Flash Flood Alley. Orographic lifting helps create some of the huge rain events here, but the affects of the Southwestern climate are also felt. We're not El Paso but also not Houston.

[bubba hotep]

Not part of the main show, so won't clutter their thread with it, but an interesting looking storm moving into Dallas

 

NWS Fort Worth ‏@NWSFortWorth  3m3 minutes ago

537pm: Few storms from south Dallas back to Cleburne. Shear is strong. Watching for rotation. #dfwwx #txwx

 

[raindancewx]

Snowed in Albuquerque today, but I don't think it really "stuck" at the airport. It was 55F early in the morning and then fell to the 30s by 3 pm - pretty powerful cold front. Eastern and elevated parts of the city have had two to five inches of snow, but most places just got a dusting. Some places just north of the city actually had their first snow in late October.

[Quixotic1]

We got absolutely smoked about 20 min ago.

ETA: rain was drowning out the TV and sideways. Lot of lightning in it. I see looking at the radar they're starting to get "that look".

[Quixotic1]

Snowed in Albuquerque today, but I don't think it really "stuck" at the airport. It was 55F early in the morning and then fell to the 30s by 3 pm - pretty powerful cold front. Eastern and elevated parts of the city have had two to five inches of snow, but most places just got a dusting. Some places just north of the city actually had their first snow in late October.

Congrats on the event. I'm jelly!

[raindancewx]

[bubba hotep]

We got absolutely smoked about 20 min ago.

ETA: rain was drowning out the TV and sideways. Lot of lightning in it. I see looking at the radar they're starting to get "that look".

Same here, very deep spring like thunder as well!

[bubba hotep]

NWS Fort Worth ‏@NWSFortWorth  1m1 minute ago

Warm front has lifted north. Should be a lull until later tonight. We will be sending up a supplemental wx balloon at midnight. #txwx #ctxwx

[Jebman]

One thing positive I'd like to mention is the NWS' handling of this system - much more professional, they did not overforecast rain this time over AUS and vicinity.

 

Just to be safe about overnight, I am expecting the front to just blow over, with perhaps just enough rain for a car top coating. Communities farther to the northeast should get strong storms overnight with 2-3 inches of rain.

 

Congrats on the snow farther north!

[bubba hotep]

Can't wait for him to write up a winter weather AFD!

 

[bubba hotep]

Wind is really starting to kick here tonight! 

[cheese007]

Tornado watch issued for portions of the metroplex 

[NTXYankee]

Still very skeptical of the line of storms, it is humid and very windy but not much in the way of warnings with the storms thus far that will affect this area. Guess we'll find out after midnight if I wake up to a storm.

[Quixotic1]

NWS Fort Worth ‏@NWSFortWorth 1m1 minute ago

Warm front has lifted north. Should be a lull until later tonight. We will be sending up a supplemental wx balloon at midnight. #txwx #ctxwx

It would be interesting to stay up and see the shear profiles.

ETA: DPs in the 70s is juicy anytime of year but in November? Wow.

[bubba hotep]

Tornado watch issued for portions of the metroplex 

[Jebman]

Those winds are gusty! Not surprising with a 55kt LLJ at the 850mb pressure surface! That's only about 4000-4250 feet overhead. Couple gusts well over 30 mph, and this even without rain bringing the winds down to the ground.

[cheese007]

Tornado warning for Tarrant county

 

EDIT: Now Collin county. Moving right along 121

 

EDIT: Sirens going off

[Quixotic1]

Up for early am tornado drill......

[cheese007]

Circulation keeps cycling right along 121

[DoctorMu]

Tornado warning - South Brazos Co until 5 am. Rotation near Brenham moving NE.  Hook echo.

[bubba hotep]

Pretty significant fence, tree, and shingle damage in my area. By far the worst I've seen.

[aggiegeog]

Sipapu Ski Resort which is very close to my family's place up there just reported that they are up to 23" from this storm.

[bubba hotep]

Based on pics from my wife and friends and given how localized the damage is, I'm thinking we got hit by a weak tornado this morning.

[aggiegeog]

17 inches at Red River to go along with the 23" at Sipapu. It looks like most mountain locations had 1-2" of liquid with temps primarily in the 20s. some of the higher peaks have to be in the 40 inch range considering around 2" liquid and temps in the teens and single digits.

[aggiegeog]

As Ntxw has brought up on Storm2k, the current set up/12Z GFS modeled set up for next week is fairly similar to last year's November cold outbreak. The Alaskan ridge was centered along the AK/YK border at 570 while the GFS is putting it in the NE GoA at 570. This set up, if it happens would likely bring down temps in the 20-25 range for lows.

[cstrunk]

That was a pretty lame event for most of East Texas for all the hype that was given to it for days leading up to the event. I had a hard time believing that a squall line that formed in West Texas and would reach East Texas in the morning hours of mid-November would pack much of a punch. My gut was right. That was one of the lamest tornado watches issued for the area. I think there were maybe 2-3 wind reports in the area? A severe thunderstorm watch would have been just fine, mentioning the possibility of a brief spin-up.

 

Rainfall totals have been less than the widespread 2-4 inches predicted as well.

 

I guess the wedgefest out west zapped all the energy out of the system... 

[Quixotic1]

That was a pretty lame event for most of East Texas for all the hype that was given to it for days leading up to the event. I had a hard time believing that a squall line that formed in West Texas and would reach East Texas in the morning hours of mid-November would pack much of a punch. My gut was right. That was one of the lamest tornado watches issued for the area. I think there were maybe 2-3 wind reports in the area? A severe thunderstorm watch would have been just fine, mentioning the possibility of a brief spin-up.

 

Rainfall totals have been less than the widespread 2-4 inches predicted as well.

 

I guess the wedgefest out west zapped all the energy out of the system... 

 

I disagree.  the 4AM hanging out in the hall way thing was surreal.  

 

I don't know if others had loudspeakers, I'd like to know what they were saying.  The echo was so bad it sounded like I was standing at the 54th Parallel in Korea.