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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
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Notice one of the years I posted was 2004:  The Christmas Miracle for you folks on the Texas coast.  Like a Nor'easter.  Some people got over a foot.   

That was an incredible storm. I have not had a chance to ever look back into it, was it a coastal low that timed perfectly behind an Arctic front?

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
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That was an incredible storm. I have not had a chance to ever look back into it, was it a coastal low that timed perfectly behind an Arctic front?

Going based purely on memory, but an arctic front had dropped through the entire state and kinda stalled a bit just into the GOM. The FROPA was on the 23rd and the coastal formed on the 24th and just crushed south Texas up to SE Texas. Had a friend in Corpus sending me pics of Palm trees covered in snow. Lol.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
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Buda dropped to 46 degrees a couple of nights ago. This location is so far into deep south Texas that i dont think we have to worry about snow here this winter.

 

We might have to be concerned with additional rain, though.

 

 

Precip is blossoming and moving NNE: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

The good news is that it will miss Austin/Buda, for now.

The bad news is that whoever is unlucky enough to be in the path of those yellow returns will soon see runoff and possible flash flooding.

In February I saw sleet one morning and there was ice on my car a couple of times. That's about it for winter in central TX. Anything beyond that essentially shuts Austin down. 

 

The funniest, most ironic thing is that I probably saw heavier rain rates per hour last Friday than snow rates per hour back home. 

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
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Wish I was in the mountains right now. NM at resort level is getting snow now with temps in the 20s. Their forecast is for snow today then dry and sunny until another storm next week with lows around 20 and highs around 40. Snow making season should be going strong up there too with those temps.

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
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what a dud.

 

expecting about a sixty-fourth of an inch of rain.

 

This is a north TX/AR special.

 

why the fook did I even put the rain buckets out?

 

Classic KEWX AFD - NWS blaming poor initialization of the models lmao

man I was REALLY looking forward to some more Onion Creek action

 

In tonight's edition........latest NWS excuses for the cold front "thunderstorms" fizzling out over south central Texas, Arkansas gets crippling amounts of rain, historic flooding from the front and training 

 

Sure the models are data sparse over mexico, duh

 

Its obvious that radar trends show heavier rain over NE TX and the Missouri/ Arkansas region. So, be sensible, NWS. Change the forecasts for south central TX to variable clouds, 40 percent chance of a passing shower, 50 percent chance of a thundershower tonight as the front passes. The front IS progressive, isn't it? So, high end totals of 1-2 inches are about right, especially farther north and east.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
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The HRRR keeps the line broken until it gets E of DFW and it looks like the 12z Euro does the same. Downtown Dallas is all drizzle and mist right now, so not getting any sun in the near future.

Sky lightening up near airport with peaks of sun. Visible has good breaks not far.
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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
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partly cloudy with sunshine at times. Feels like late summer down here, not early November

 

band of showers forming about 30 miles to my west. This line will train over the same areas and move NNE.

 

throughout this particular system, that has been where the rain forms then it moves NNE.

 

Those folks have probably gotten in on 2-3 inches so far yesterday and today.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

what a dud.

expecting about a sixty-fourth of an inch of rain.

This is a north TX/AR special.

why the fook did I even put the rain buckets out?

Classic KEWX AFD - NWS blaming poor initialization of the models lmao

man I was REALLY looking forward to some more Onion Creek action

In tonight's edition........latest NWS excuses for the cold front "thunderstorms" fizzling out over south central Texas, Arkansas gets crippling amounts of rain, historic flooding from the front and training

Sure the models are data sparse over mexico, duh

Its obvious that radar trends show heavier rain over NE TX and the Missouri/ Arkansas region. So, be sensible, NWS. Change the forecasts for south central TX to variable clouds, 40 percent chance of a passing shower, 50 percent chance of a thundershower tonight as the front passes. The front IS progressive, isn't it? So, high end totals of 1-2 inches are about right, especially farther north and east.

I wouldn't call this a dud yet. Models have the front sagging south and stalling near us overnight, with training storms. HRRR 18z has 3-5" of rain around Austin. The Hi-res NAM has a similar situation, and it sniffed out the huge rain totals from last Friday.
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Jebman

Jebman

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Remember tho, the vaunted HRRR was the model that showed us all the "heavy rain" we were supposed to get this morning around 6am CST, lmao.

 

Hell we could not even sustain a light shower!!!!

 

Check out this loop http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

 

That corridor, if you will, well west of I 35, has hung in there tough as Rocky Balboa against Ivan Drago in Moscow on Christmas Eve. Rain forms along it then it moves NNE right on time. there is also rain forming to the east of I 35.

I dont think this one is for I 35 near Austin, Buda, Kyle or San Antonio. I think the conveyor will continue as we have seen for the past 18 hours. 

 

We'll get a brief shower as the front goes by at a steady pace, then clearing and drier and cooler.

 

I also have a feeling South Central Texas is gonna dry out, kind of like in mid July, but without the high heat of mid July.

 

El Nino is tired of south central TX, I think it is going to start hosing down the Rockies with dozens of yards of snow.

 

 

 

What ever happened to us getting just a steady light rain from isentropic ascent over a front for 24 hours totaling about an inch and a half?

 

These days it is feast or desperate famine - NO exceptions

And, we ARE desperate, when we are struggling just to have a light rain shower because we are 30-50 miles east of the conveyor belt.

 

Sun is out, we have 85/72 conditions.

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