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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

***I don't care how much. Bring it. Chances are, next year heads into a Nina and in this PDO regime we'll be begging for it. That 15"+ May dried up quickly***

-----

This statement proves you are a Texan. Anyone who has lived here long enough eventually experiences a drought and hears about the epic drought of the 1950s. This is the nature of the Weather Beast in Texas; scorching heat and burning dryness, followed by brutal cold and massive rainfall. There is no happy medium except for two seperate periods, lasting only a few days MOST years; these are called "Fall" and "Spring"...

and they will have tornadoes.

 

Mostly true.  Though I've only been here 43 years.  You know a Texan by how they react to the sirens going off.  "What?  Oh, it's probably a test."

 

Drought is the worst.  Speaking only in terms of no human casualties, flood waters recede and homes can be rebuilt but drought takes decades to recover from, if at all.  

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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Looks like the models are backing off an epic rain event for this weekend but it still looks good for another 2-4" for a lot of areas. The analogs look wet through November and the Euro weeklies seem to support that. However, it looks like we may be waiting on the cold. I don't see anyway we match the cold nation wide November that so many El  Nino's seem to have. 

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

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Looks like the models are backing off an epic rain event for this weekend but it still looks good for another 2-4" for a lot of areas. The analogs look wet through November and the Euro weeklies seem to support that. However, it looks like we may be waiting on the cold. I don't see anyway we match the cold nation wide November that so many El  Nino's seem to have.

Storms won't be the problem this year. Cold might be. If we can get the same NW flow we've had for two years, we've got a shot. Canada looks a little barren right now, but it's still early. cross polar flow is probably not going to happen so we'll need some home grown cold. 09-10 was like that. Just cold enough.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Storms won't be the problem this year. Cold might be. If we can get the same NW flow we've had for two years, we've got a shot. Canada looks a little barren right now, but it's still early. cross polar flow is probably not going to happen so we'll need some home grown cold. 09-10 was like that. Just cold enough.

 

'09 was the last time DFW saw 8"+ of rain in October as well, that seems like a safe bet for this October. '09-10 was my last winter in DC, talk about going out in style!

 

CSSxkNqVAAAgJM_.jpg

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OKwx2K4

OKwx2K4

Posted
Posted

'09 was the last time DFW saw 8"+ of rain in October as well, that seems like a safe bet for this October. '09-10 was my last winter in DC, talk about going out in style!

CSSxkNqVAAAgJM_.jpg

Euro shows some snowcover build over the next few days over the southwestern parts of Canada. May be a positive sign that us folks in the south Central states will have a little cold air to work with as the season progresses.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Jomo posted this in the OK thread and I think it is one of the better outlooks that I have seen so far:

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/Winter1415/Winter201516Forecast.pdf

 

Allen Huffman is a great no hype met and I have always enjoyed reading his stuff. He has a nice discussion on the QBO (that and solar are the next things on my list of topics to dig in deeper) that is straight forward and easy to understand. 

 

Maybe I'm being biased b/c he hits all my favorite analogs and closes strong with this:

 

313q2ko.png

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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I feel like he leans too heavily on typical strong El Nino seasons. I think there will be much more blocking than a 97/98 type season. 09/10 is my idea though this El Nino is much stronger so who knows.

 

The interesting thing about 97/98 is that there was blocking with -AO from December - February: 

-0.071

-2.081

-0.183

 

In 09/10 the N. Pacific just crashed and gave up pretty much all of the warm anomalies. That is one thing that I have been watching and there have been a couple of stretches were it looked like it was starting to cool but they were false starts and temps rebounded.  

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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It sure is a hard forecast. My best guess is the warm GoA acts similar to last season and provides some blocking and I think we will also get Atlantic blocking. Blocking plus a juicy STJ should equal fun later in the season.

 

I'm kind of leaning that way, '14-15ish with more blocking and more precipitation. I think the Northeast has the biggest bust potential in most of the outlooks that I have seen. Pretty much everyone is going above normal temps for that region and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they come in below normal. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
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I'm kind of leaning that way, '14-15ish with more blocking and more precipitation. I think the Northeast has the biggest bust potential in most of the outlooks that I have seen. Pretty much everyone is going above normal temps for that region and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they come in below normal.

Blocking will be key there. We will have the storms here in the South, but how cold it will be there and how far north they can get will be determined by the NAO. If that doesn't cooperate, this could be another 97-98 there with torches and rain, or if it is too blocky, like 09-10 or even 79-80 with constant suppression.
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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

I know it's the Hi-Res NAM, but the last couple of runs have shown a pretty nasty area of heavy rain over the eastern Hill Country for tomorrow, over 10" on the last run.

This is covered in detail by FWD's discussion. The placement of the heaviest rain depends on whether we get organized convection or not. If organized, the heavy rain will be over east central Texas.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

I know it's the Hi-Res NAM, but the last couple of runs have shown a pretty nasty area of heavy rain over the eastern Hill Country for tomorrow, over 10" on the last run.

Just saw that, I've been tied up the last couple of days and haven't paid as close attention to things as the last event. Looks like convective evolution will play a big role in who gets the heaviest rain. The models are shifting around the axis of heaviest rain from run-to-run.

Glad this ended up being more progressive and looks to leave DFW dry for Halloween night. My kids would not be happy if it got rained out :lol:

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

The new Euro seems to lean toward the more organized convective scenario with 4-5"+ rain along I-35 south from about here through San Antonio and with heavy rain in the Hill Country. Heaviest rain falls late afternoon tomorrow with over 2" in 6 hours in Austin. Looks like College Station gets nailed too. DFW would get relatively shafted in this scenario with maybe an inch.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

The new Euro seems to lean toward the more organized convective scenario with 4-5"+ rain along I-35 south from about here through San Antonio and with heavy rain in the Hill Country. Heaviest rain falls late afternoon tomorrow with over 2" in 6 hours in Austin. Looks like College Station gets nailed too. DFW would get relatively shafted in this scenario with maybe an inch.

It seems like DFW usually misses out when S. Texas cashes in. That convection disrupts moisture flow and can kickoff subsidence.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

The northern NM mountains should get around 6 inches of snow at resort level through tomorrow. This will be the first big snow for them though they did get a couple inches last week.

 

They should do well this winter. For those that put stock in the Euro weeklies, Texas looks to stay wet with even some chances of snow in the Panhandle and West Texas as we move through November. 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

A number of warnings already flying this morning, good thing early rain should keep things in check across DFW

 

CSjY5QhWwAASwsQ.png

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1895
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 300848Z - 301045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SCNTRL TX MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND A COUPLE TORNADOES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SCNTRL TX WITHIN AN
EWD-ADVANCING BAND OF ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING WARM-ADVECTION REGIME
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFYING LLJ. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS STORMS MOVE NEWD AND INTERACT WITH
WARM FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF DEL RIO EWD
THROUGH CNTRL TX JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW BRAUNFELS. RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 IS SUPPORTING 500-1000
J/KG MUCAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. 0-1 KM SHEAR IS
AUGMENTED WHERE A 40 KT LLJ INTERSECTS THIS BOUNDARY. THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SCNTRL TX THIS MORNING.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 10/30/2015


ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29899787 29689680 29209654 28859711 28659846 28729932
29109971 29629942 29899787 

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