Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

A blend of the 12z Euro and GFS would be 5 - 8" area wide for DFW     

 

The models have been pretty locked in on this event for a while now. 

[bubba hotep]

A lot pink showing up

 

[Quixotic1]

Cold pooling will save us....

[Roy]

FWD still seems to be really low-balling things.

 

I think the GFS may be too high based on their explanation probably. But, the Euro may well be too low. 6-8 seems like a good number right now.

[jm1220]

News media in Austin is starting to get a little crazy hyping this up. KXAN is showing a 7-10" swath across much of the viewing area (reminds me of the snow total forecasts back home) and is bringing up the last time hurricane remnants brought widespread flooding here in Oct 2013.

[aggiegeog]

Snow managed to fall around 9,000 feet in northern NM last night as shown in this image Red River Ski Area posted on FB today.

[jm1220]

New GGEM has 8-10" of rain along I-35 from Sam Antonio north. Patricia looks very impressive as well and is now forecasted to hit Mexico as a borderline cat 4.

[Roy]

GFS seems to be shifting it a bit east, but still a lot for all of the metro....a ridiculously huge amount, with the bullseye just a bit east.

[bubba hotep]

GFS is already starting to bust across the DFW area. 12z run had heavy rain across much of the area by now. It looks like we could stay mostly dry today with heavier totals staying NW and up into Oklahoma.

Possibility that sustained convection off the Texas coast is messing with the moisture feed?

ETA: 12z Euro shifts heaviest totals south of DFW and only has 2-3" across the northern burbs in Denton and Collin

[Roy]

Uh oh....I am going to be ticked if I don't even get 2 inches of rain.

[jhamps10]

Uh oh....I am going to be ticked if I don't even get 2 inches of rain.

You will... The main wave wasn't supposed to be until tomorrow anyway..

[jm1220]

12z Euro has 7"+ rain with spots over 10" centered on I-35 from just south of Dallas down to roughly San Antonio, then east/SE to the Gulf Coast. Still a lot of rain to go for everyone, the eastern 2/3 of the state entirely has 2-3" or more rain left. Models are liking the idea more of incorporating Patricia's remnants into a slow moving coastal low, which would mean huge rain totals for much of the TX Gulf Coast and would keep the rain from progressing away from central TX.

[Jebman]

With all of the rainfall well to the north of Austin, i'd expect we'd have sunny skies. And, i was correct.

 

NWS needs to calm down and forecast about 1-3 inches of rain thru Sunday, with spots of 4 inches.

 

We will be partly cloudy in AUS all afternoon and likely all night. Might see a passing drizzle. 

 

Now N TX and OK might see those monster 4-8 inch totals with 10-12 spots lol.

 

Todays forecast for Austin was way overdone. We got ppl down here still scared to death from May's rains. Todays forecast should have been windy, humid, with variable clouds. May see a few light showers or drizzle. Chance of rain 20 percent.

 

Tonight, breezey, humid, mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.

 

A word to the wise, Texas forecasters: when you read the models, please dont take em at face value. ALWAYS cut the totals in half. Also, observe trends. N TX and OK are getting steady rains. THEY are the bullseye, not S Cen TX.

 

There's really no need for the panic your crazy forecasts here in AUS are creating: Repeat after me, forecasters in TX: Two to four inches expected thru late Sunday, perhaps spots to five inches. This correct forecast may have to be revised downward, less rain.

 

 

I was running around at top speed yesterday finalizing errands because I was stupid and ignorant enough to believe your crazy over the top forecasts, NWS in Texas! 

 

There was no need. Today turned out to be partly sunny and breezy, kind of humid. Did see a bit of drizzle early.

 

We are NOT going to get 4-8 inches of rain with possible 10-12. Perhaps in southeast Asia in the monsoon, but not here.

[bubba hotep]

The HRRR appears to be out to lunch based on the last couple of runs.

[jm1220]

With all of the rainfall well to the north of Austin, i'd expect we'd have sunny skies. And, i was correct.

NWS needs to calm down and forecast about 1-3 inches of rain thru Sunday, with spots of 4 inches.

We will be partly cloudy in AUS all afternoon and likely all night. Might see a passing drizzle.

Now N TX and OK might see those monster 4-8 inch totals with 10-12 spots lol.

Todays forecast for Austin was way overdone. We got ppl down here still scared to death from May's rains. Todays forecast should have been windy, humid, with variable clouds. May see a few light showers or drizzle. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight, breezey, humid, mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.

A word to the wise, Texas forecasters: when you read the models, please dont take em at face value. ALWAYS cut the totals in half. Also, observe trends. N TX and OK are getting steady rains. THEY are the bullseye, not S Cen TX.

There's really no need for the panic your crazy forecasts here in AUS are creating: Repeat after me, forecasters in TX: Two to four inches expected thru late Sunday, perhaps spots to five inches. This correct forecast may have to be revised downward, less rain.

I was running around at top speed yesterday finalizing errands because I was stupid and ignorant enough to believe your crazy over the top forecasts, NWS in Texas!

There was no need. Today turned out to be partly sunny and breezy, kind of humid. Did see a bit of drizzle early.

We are NOT going to get 4-8 inches of rain with possible 10-12. Perhaps in southeast Asia in the monsoon, but not here.

I had about 20" of rain in May, much of it unforcasted. Some rain events here have underperformed but some have over performed. Austin has a bad history with late season tropical system remnants from the Pacific and incoming troughs-look up Oct 2013. Patricia is expected to be a Cat 3 or 4 when it hits Mexico tomorrow, and tremendously moist air from the Gulf is coming as well. This setup will produce for somebody, believe me. Memorial Day had similar totals around here with less of a setup to work with. What makes you think this is already a bust?

[bubba hotep]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0599
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TX & SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 222001Z - 230201Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION SHOULD SHOW SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO
2" COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN AREAS.

DISCUSSION...A THERMAL GRADIENT STRETCHES FROM THE TX BIG BEND
THROUGH THE NORTHERN DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPOLITAN AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST OK. CIN IS ERODING IN ITS VICINITY BASED ON RECENT SPC
MESOANALYSES. INFLOW AT 850 HPA INTO/OVER THE BOUNDARY IS 25-40
KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES, NEAR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MEAN 850-400
HPA WIND BUT AT A 50 DEGREE ANGLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.5-1.75" LIE ACROSS THE REGION PER GPS INFORMATION, 2-3 SIGMAS
ABOVE THE MEAN FOR LATE OCTOBER. WHILE CELL MOTION HAS BEEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ~ 35 KTS, THE HEAVY RAIN CORE ALONG THE RED
RIVER HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT ~ 30 KTS, ALONG THE LINES
OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS AND PARALLEL TO
1000-500 HPA THICKNESS LINES, LIKELY DUE TO DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR. MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG EXIST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL TX.

RECENT NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM DALLAS EASTWARD
AFTER ~22Z, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MAINTENANCE/POSSIBLE
BACKBUILDING NEAR/OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, WHICH SHOULD SAG
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THE CAM GUIDANCE ADVERTISES LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 2-4" WITHIN THIS AREA, WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPORTS HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2". THE 12Z
WRF4NSSL APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING THE AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE
BEST, WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER CAM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, SOILS
ACROSS NORTHEAST TX ARE DRY AS THE AREA HAS SEEN LITTLE RAINFALL
SINCE THE DEPARTURE OF T.D. BILL ON JUNE 18 -- AROUND 4" HAS
FALLEN DURING THE PAST 120 DAYS PER SOUTHERN REGIONAL
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES. FOR THE MOST PART, THE AREA IS DEALING
WITH A LONGER DURATION RAIN EVENT. HOWEVER, THE RAIN RATES
EXPECTED WOULD CAUSE URBAN ISSUES IN THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPOLITAN AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN AREAS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 34899702 34459493 33619461 32379634 31200117
33230030 34439869 

[aggiegeog]

With all of the rainfall well to the north of Austin, i'd expect we'd have sunny skies. And, i was correct.

 

NWS needs to calm down and forecast about 1-3 inches of rain thru Sunday, with spots of 4 inches.

 

We will be partly cloudy in AUS all afternoon and likely all night. Might see a passing drizzle. 

 

Now N TX and OK might see those monster 4-8 inch totals with 10-12 spots lol.

 

Todays forecast for Austin was way overdone. We got ppl down here still scared to death from May's rains. Todays forecast should have been windy, humid, with variable clouds. May see a few light showers or drizzle. Chance of rain 20 percent.

 

Tonight, breezey, humid, mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.

 

A word to the wise, Texas forecasters: when you read the models, please dont take em at face value. ALWAYS cut the totals in half. Also, observe trends. N TX and OK are getting steady rains. THEY are the bullseye, not S Cen TX.

 

There's really no need for the panic your crazy forecasts here in AUS are creating: Repeat after me, forecasters in TX: Two to four inches expected thru late Sunday, perhaps spots to five inches. This correct forecast may have to be revised downward, less rain.

 

 

I was running around at top speed yesterday finalizing errands because I was stupid and ignorant enough to believe your crazy over the top forecasts, NWS in Texas! 

 

There was no need. Today turned out to be partly sunny and breezy, kind of humid. Did see a bit of drizzle early.

 

We are NOT going to get 4-8 inches of rain with possible 10-12. Perhaps in southeast Asia in the monsoon, but not here.

This is dangerous thinking as others have mentioned. Yes, some areas will get less than forecasted, but some will likely get more. With a tropical set-up like this someone could see sustained rainfall rates of 2 to maybe even 3"/hour for several hours.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro has 7"+ rain with spots over 10" centered on I-35 from just south of Dallas down to roughly San Antonio, then east/SE to the Gulf Coast. Still a lot of rain to go for everyone, the eastern 2/3 of the state entirely has 2-3" or more rain left. Models are liking the idea more of incorporating Patricia's remnants into a slow moving coastal low, which would mean huge rain totals for much of the TX Gulf Coast and would keep the rain from progressing away from central TX.

Yea, the 12z runs seem to be tacking the remnants of Patricia on a more southerly track than earlier runs?

[bubba hotep]

Via radar, the leading edge is finally pushing past I35 and it also seems to expanding to the SE a bit faster. It doesn't seem like any of the models are handling the convective evolution very well this afternoon.

[Jebman]

This is dangerous thinking as others have mentioned. Yes, some areas will get less than forecasted, but some will likely get more. With a tropical set-up like this someone could see sustained rainfall rates of 2 to maybe even 3"/hour for several hours.

Point taken. I'm glad I am not in the coastal prairies. 

[jhamps10]

Via radar, the leading edge is finally pushing past I35 and it also seems to expanding to the SE a bit faster. It doesn't seem like any of the models are handling the convective evolution very well this afternoon.

I can confirm when I get a chance to look outside from the 33rd floor of Burnett Plaza in ft worth you look to the nw and you can see a shield of rain over lake worth and the nw side of town

[DoctorMu]

The combination of a strengthening SJT, very robust tropical system (even scaling the mountains in Mexico), eastward bound trough with a split, ridiculous PW just off the coast, current and expected lows just off the coast in the GoM make this a tricky and dynamic forecast, which widespread yet highly variable rainfall amounts.  Training could be remarkable

 

If Patricia moisture gets into the southern jets, some locations could indeed approach a foot of rain, while other see less than 3 in.

 

 

In 1994, a tropical system + the Southern Jet resulted in 20 in of rain in an 18 hour period because of training.

 

If Patricia following current trends and becomes a coast hugging surface low, the deluge would be remarkable.

 

The silver lining is that SE and SC Texas, particularly from Navasota north are nearly bone dry.  We're pretty much out of natural ground water in College Station.  Saturation of the soil may buffer things enough to reduce the risk of a Biblical-lite event.  We're better off if the rain starts light, since the clay underneath the topsoil should be concrete-like by now enhancing runoff.

[aggiegeog]

Point taken. I'm glad I am not in the coastal prairies. 

Agreed there, just looking at the current situation without models I agree the coastal areas look to be under the gun.

[jm1220]

One thing I have noticed since moving here are the number of heavy rain events that were initially expected to be the worst over I-35 shift over time to the coast. This could be one of them if Pamela's remnants merge with this coastal low. We can see hints of this popping up on recent models.

[Jebman]

Mostly clear weather, light winds, humid as heck but otherwise dry as a martini. Saw a lot of sun today.

 

Coastal folk better hurry up on that ark, lol

[Roy]

Nice off-and-on downpours here in north Fort Worth. Will see what happens. Don't really want a foot of rain here anyway, so if it ends up being south, whatever. Regardless, should still get 3 inches plus out of this, which is so very needed. Some folks will have some real problems though.

[Morris]

10-inch bullseye already north of Brownsville on radar.

[Roy]

Nearby Wunderground stations all reporting around 1.40 already here in North Fort Worth. More coming. Think 2 inches could easily be doable tonight if not even more...just depends on how long it stays before moving east.

[Jebman]

Minor uptick in precip on radar http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php

I know because I'm so desperate for rain that I have been refreshing the NWS radar map for the past few hours.

No, I DON'T have a life lol

[jm1220]

Minor uptick in precip on radar http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php

I know because I'm so desperate for rain that I have been refreshing the NWS radar map for the past few hours.

No, I DON'T have a life lol

In 48 hours, we'll have more than plenty. I just want to see the grass/trees turn green again, I don't think I've ever seen the landscape go beyond brown to actually appear burned before...

 

Look at Patricia-about to hit cat 5 at 150 mph with just about a pinhole eye. The mountains of Mexico will shred it apart at the surface but the mid and high level moisture contributing to what's already primed to hit will mean a big time soaking in Texas.