Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

This would be funny, if it wasn't the only thing the GFS was good at predicting now days:

 

12z GFS - 

Dallas / Fort Worth- Dallas / Fort Worth International Airport,TX,United States
 

16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 0.01 "

[DFWWeather]

The DFW area is looking warm and dry through the middle of October and who knows beyond that. Going over a few things and September being warm and dry shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone but things should flip to cooler and wetter at some point. November looks below normal and wet but December should bounce back to warmer. However, October looked like it would be below normal temp and above precipitation but that will be hard to get to at this point unless there is a major flip for the 2nd half of the month. 

 

I'm still holding out hope for the latter part of next week (around 17th). SOI crashing and developing deep trough in Gulf of Alaska may help put a trough in the center of the CONUS about that time or shortly thereafter. I agree October should have been on the cool side. If I remember correctly, we had to wait almost to the end of the month for a flip in 1957 and in 1993 (but boy did it flip with both having freezes at the end of the month). 1997 and 1982 both had early freezes too, but it occurred in early November. Though I agree with you this SST config is nothing like those years. 2009 though was a wait until December for a late freeze and we all know how that turned out. Usually, when things stay this warm for long periods the rubber band snaps back hard. We may go straight right into winter when the flip occurs like 1993 and 1957.

[bubba hotep]

I'm still holding out hope for the latter part of next week (around 17th). SOI crashing and developing deep trough in Gulf of Alaska may help put a trough in the center of the CONUS about that time or shortly thereafter. I agree October should have been on the cool side. If I remember correctly, we had to wait almost to the end of the month for a flip in 1957 and in 1993 (but boy did it flip with both having freezes at the end of the month). 1997 and 1982 both had early freezes too, but it occurred in early November. Though I agree with you this SST config is nothing like those years. 2009 though was a wait until December for a late freeze and we all know how that turned out. Usually, when things stay this warm for long periods the rubber band snaps back hard. We may go straight right into winter when the flip occurs like 1993 and 1957.

 

The Euro is building some cold air up in Canada by D10, will it dump? Also, I forgot how warm last October was and it looks like some of the other analog years were warm to start October. 

[aggiegeog]

It looks like the high peaks of northern NM could see some big snow totals. I could foresee up to a foot around 13,000ft. 

[aggiegeog]

Similar to last year's Nuri, Oho looks to bomb near Alaska. Though Oho will be near SE AK instead of the Aleutians which has a completely opposite sensible result down here. Once we moved beyond Oho Fall should return and with it hopefully the El Nino induced rains.

[bubba hotep]

I went back and looked at Ninos that were abnormally dry for Texas from late summer into early fall and the results were encouraging. This group was pretty much all dry and warm through October and then flipped in November. One interesting thing was that the Rockies and Southern Plains avoided the December blow torch that fries the rest of the country.

ETA: The one draw back is that DJF have only slighly above normal precipitation with January looking like the best combo of above normal precipitation and below normal temps. March looks really good as well but climo starts working against us pretty hard temp wise by then. I'll try to post some plots this evening.

[bubba hotep]

In 2015, here is what we have from Aug - Oct 7 for precipitation:

 

And here the "dry start" Ninos from Aug to Oct:

 

Generally dry east of the Rockies and wet west of the Rockies.

 

Then the temps observed:

 

 

"Dry start" Nino years:

 

 

Obviously the the NE sticks out like a sore thumb when comparing those two but a pretty good match for Texas and our subforum.

 

So what do we get rolling forward through the rest of the fall and winter?

 

For precipitation it isn't overly impressive but better than continued drought:

 

 

 

Then temps are nice looking:

 

Most interesting is that Texas avoids the December blow torch with this bunch of analogs  

 

 

This is a backwards way of doing analogs and totally ignores the different individual indices but was a fun way to waste some time (and to calm my nerves about persistence winning out and us blasting through winter warm and dry ) 

[cstrunk]

All I know is that it's been about 1.5 months since we've had more than a trace of rain. Today's cold front was another huge nothing in the precip department. No relief anytime soon from above average temperatures and zero precip.

[bubba hotep]

All I know is that it's been about 1.5 months since we've had more than a trace of rain. Today's cold front was another huge nothing in the precip department. No relief anytime soon from above average temperatures and zero precip.

 

The north wind this evening is nice but the rest of this "fall front" is full of fail! All the years posted above flipped in either late October of early November, so we probably have a couple more weeks before we see any real relief. Unless... that tropical system the models are hinting at totally bucks climo and gets pulled up into Texas! (I'm not sure how that happens, maybe a slow moving H5 cutoff to our west?)

[Quixotic1]

Bubbahotep, I noticed you had 83 in your data set. Pretty sure that's a weak Nina year. Also, since that December is one of the coldest months ever, it might be skewing it a bit.

[bubba hotep]

Bubbahotep, I noticed you had 83 in your data set. Pretty sure that's a weak Nina year. Also, since that December is one of the coldest months ever, it might be skewing it a bit.

 

Ahh, good catch. It was the 2nd year of the 82-83 Nino but was fading fast:

 

1982    -.278    -.138    .102    -.013    .432    .965    1.614    1.817    1.808    2.021    2.447    2.411

1983    2.687    2.903    3.024    2.835    2.537    2.201    1.767    1.155    .481    .003    -.171    -.172

 

You are right, pull that out and the temp anomalies do shift towards warmer but still not an all out Dec torch for Texas. I'll have to go back over my list and see why '83 was on it.

[Quixotic1]

I'm with you though. Give me a cold December or January anytime over February and March. I'm interested in seeing the maps without 83.

Early returns seem to keep the EPO state the same. And though it's not the be all end all because Canada may be warm, I'm going to call a primarily negative AO for DJF. I've got warm fuzzies. Just want the change to start. 90s for Halloween would suck.

[aggiegeog]

Iam thinking that Halloween will be about the right time for our first Arctic front. A Halloween freeze and even frozen precip is not unheard of, look at 1993 for a good example. Lufkin made i ddown to 25 Halloween morning and Dallas recorded a trace of snow with the front on the 29th.

[Quixotic1]

Iam thinking that Halloween will be about the right time for our first Arctic front. A Halloween freeze and even frozen precip is not unheard of, look at 1993 for a good example. Lufkin made i ddown to 25 Halloween morning and Dallas recorded a trace of snow with the front on the 29th.

91 was that way. Snow flurries at the Tom Petty concert out at the amphitheater......

[bubba hotep]

I'm with you though. Give me a cold December or January anytime over February and March. I'm interested in seeing the maps without 83.

Early returns seem to keep the EPO state the same. And though it's not the be all end all because Canada may be warm, I'm going to call a primarily negative AO for DJF. I've got warm fuzzies. Just want the change to start. 90s for Halloween would suck.

Went back and looked and I pulled those years off a list that I put together in March for hurricane season Anyway, went back and swapped '82 with '87 and here is what comes up:

Precipitation w/ '83 replaced w/ '87

vs. what I posted the other day:

Updated temps:

vs. what I posted the other day:

Updated Dec temps:

and precipitation.

So it looks like the changes are that things are slightly wetter and warmer when swapping '83 with '87. I didn't include '87 originally b/c it was dry in the late summer and early fall but a good bit cooler than what we have seen this year.

[Quixotic1]

Not bad. The December change is the only one noteworthy. The rest seem to fit the previous analysis. I'm pretty sure 97-98 screws everything up. It was the torchiest of the torch winters. Even 82-83 , which was pretty dismal, gave us some periodic wet sloppy snow. I'm hoping for 87-88 or 02-03 but I'm sure we'll get none of the above. I would be lying if I said this unending summer weather doesn't bother me. It's not the unseasonal temps but the total absence of any cold push that gives pause. Climo is with us, though. There isn't a model showing us AN temp wise.

[bubba hotep]

Not bad. The December change is the only one noteworthy. The rest seem to fit the previous analysis. I'm pretty sure 97-98 screws everything up. It was the torchiest of the torch winters. Even 82-83 , which was pretty dismal, gave us some periodic wet sloppy snow. I'm hoping for 87-88 or 02-03 but I'm sure we'll get none of the above. I would be lying if I said this unending summer weather doesn't bother me. It's not the unseasonal temps but the total absence of any cold push that gives pause. Climo is with us, though. There isn't a model showing us AN temp wise.

Yea, it has me as nervous as a cat in room full of rocking chairs! However, there is pretty good agreement b/w the Euro EPS and GEFS that we flip to cooler and wetter in the D8 - 10 range and stay that way through the end of the runs.

[jm1220]

98 so far in Austin. This heat is way beyond old.

[Quixotic1]

I know man. It's not usually going on and on like this.

[bubba hotep]

This heat plus my allergies has me hating the outside!

[bubba hotep]

One reason I am hopeful for this winter is the current SST configuration

 

 

If you pull out the "cold" El Nino winters for our area then you get a configuration that matches the current SSTs spatially but nothing compares to the current anomalies in the yellow area. Then when you look at the "warm" winters the yellow circle area is close to normal and then there is a cold tongue that extends from just north of Australia to the blue circle. However, I'm still worried that the magnitude of the warm anomalies and overall coverage will make for something squirrely.  

 

Eric Blake tweeted this out earlier today:

 

 

Just crazy warmth out there!

[cstrunk]

Tyler hit 94 today, one degree shy of tying the record.

 

There were a couple of tiny showers in the area, but the more substantial showers developed south of me and didn't amount to much.

 

It looks like another week of no rain and above normal temperatures. This weekend looks nice though, 80 and sunny each day. I'd rather have rain at this point.

[jm1220]

High was 99 downtown. Burnet (today may as well be "burn-it"), north of Lake Travis hit 100. We're at the stage yet again where any rain is needed. 

[aggiegeog]

This is going to be an interesting cold weather season with a very stong El Nino and -AO. The latter part of this month through November could be pretty wet then the -AO should provide some good cold shots during the winter. Just have to suffer for another week or so.

[DoctorMu]

This is going to be an interesting cold weather season with a very stong El Nino and -AO. The latter part of this month through November could be pretty wet then the -AO should provide some good cold shots during the winter. Just have to suffer for another week or so.

 

Yeah, the GFS does the flip next Wednesday with mostly cloudy, chance of rain, and high 70s through Halloween.

[Quixotic1]

Yeah.  The whole globe is on fire.  I't's hard to see where forcing is going to set up.  

[DFWWeather]

This is going to be an interesting cold weather season with a very stong El Nino and -AO. The latter part of this month through November could be pretty wet then the -AO should provide some good cold shots during the winter. Just have to suffer for another week or so.

 

Also, the very warm waters in the Gulf of Alaska will cause a tendency for the jet to amplify along or just off the west coast, which combined with -AO, lookout below! However, the strongest analog to date for DFW has been 1957, which was a forgettable winter. Could we outdo 2009-2010? Incidentally, 1957 had a warm October up until an early freeze: 29°F on October 27th.

 

1925 was the only year outside of 1993 that produced snowfall in the month of October. 1993 was an El Niño winter, but was 1925?

[wxmx]

102F here yesterday which tied the warmest temp for the year. It hasn't been that hot down here, but not cool either. It's unusual to  have years without 40C+ temps (104F).

[wxmx]

Warm ENSOs will help the chances of snowfall in our region, merely by super charging the STJ. OTOH, chances of arctic air are diminished because Canada is usually torching, so you really need cross polar flow, and that's not easy to come by. But just as an example, the last time we had accumulating snow, with snow falling for almost 12 hours was back in Dec. 1997, the same month that featured the warmest ENSO on record.

[aggiegeog]

The biggest difference between this season and 97/98 is that the N Pac is still fairly warm. Not as cool as 13/14 or even 14/15 but enough to prevent a torch winter. That plus a -AO/NAO pattern seems to set up well for in the S Plains.