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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

12z GFS is off the rails! Showing 14"+ of rain across parts of DFW through 78hrs

ETA: 17 to 20" through 84 hrs. Someone pull the plug before this run crashes the whole NCEP system!

Good grief! Guess the gfs wants us to shatter that all time record then??? I will say this, that this morning when I went to work I stepped outside and it felt like a tropical soupy environment... Felt more like Galveston with the humidity than north Texas...

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Looking more and more like a historic rainfall event is about to rip across the DFW area.

585

FXUS64 KFWD 211636 AAA

AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

1136 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

.UPDATE...

EARLY MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PAST

SEVERAL RUNS...I.E. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN REMAIN VERY WET WHILE

THE NAM SERIES ARE PRODUCING ABOUT 1/3 THE PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF

THE OTHERS. EVEN THE SREF PRECIP OUTPUT IS LESS THAN THE GFS AND

ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

FOR THESE REASONS...WE WILL LET THE CURRENT FORCAST RIDE AND

CONCENTRATE ON THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AND DECIDE ABOUT A FLASH

FLOOD WATCH. 75

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

GGEM has the heaviest rain, up to 10" along and east of I-35. GFS/NAM have the heaviest rain axis a little further west-from DFW to the Edwards Plateau. If any place at this juncture looks to get nailed no matter what. it's from Dallas west to the Panhandle. Further south, it seems to depend more on the second trough and interaction with TS Patricia. 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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The Caribbean PW reservoir over south Texas is ridiculous (and perhaps a degree overdone) on the 12Z GFS. That's 2.4-2.6" of PW feeding into the modeled north central Texas MCS. It's no wonder the QPF is so high this run.

Too bad we can't get a special recon scheduled to sample downstream. It looks like October daily max record at DFW is 2.31 and the all time record is around 2.55.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Some of the crazier models would almost certainly result in some bad flash flooding here, especially if the heaviest rain falls in the source areas for the downtown creeks. We were nailed with very severe flooding Memorial Day even downtown from the creeks. The Blanco River reached its record crest from up to a foot of rain in 6 hours in Blanco County. Luckily this rain looks to fall over a few days but the profile looks favorable for training cells again. Flooding around here is often very sudden, fast moving and "like a wall of water" because of how it flows downhill from the Hill Country.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Well one thing I have noticed with living in Texas is we seem to play catchup all at once with rain not gradually over time. Downfall is if this is going to be a rainy winter we have a long ways to go in the season and we have started early unlike spring. Will not be a good thing for flooding.

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Jim Marusak

Jim Marusak

Posted
Posted

hope i'm not interrupting anything on this thread. but when I looked at this situation and saw the calendar, you have an extra bit of trouble here. It's Formula 1 Weekend coming up at Circuit of the Americas in Austin. you're going to be having 100k or so fans down there in the south side of the Austin metro near Bergstrom. and while the worst of severe weather chances should be on Free Practice on Friday and Qualifying on Saturday, all that rain is not going to do the track and surrounding roads any good. I'm hoping authorities down there are ready for all contingencies (on top of pirelli stocking a lot of wet and intermediate tires).

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

hope i'm not interrupting anything on this thread. but when I looked at this situation and saw the calendar, you have an extra bit of trouble here. It's Formula 1 Weekend coming up at Circuit of the Americas in Austin. you're going to be having 100k or so fans down there in the south side of the Austin metro near Bergstrom. and while the worst of severe weather chances should be on Free Practice on Friday and Qualifying on Saturday, all that rain is not going to do the track and surrounding roads any good. I'm hoping authorities down there are ready for all contingencies (on top of pirelli stocking a lot of wet and intermediate tires).

Cool, I had not heard about that. Could be a wild ride for fans on Saturday, if Austin picks up some flash flooding.

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

hope i'm not interrupting anything on this thread. but when I looked at this situation and saw the calendar, you have an extra bit of trouble here. It's Formula 1 Weekend coming up at Circuit of the Americas in Austin. you're going to be having 100k or so fans down there in the south side of the Austin metro near Bergstrom. and while the worst of severe weather chances should be on Free Practice on Friday and Qualifying on Saturday, all that rain is not going to do the track and surrounding roads any good. I'm hoping authorities down there are ready for all contingencies (on top of pirelli stocking a lot of wet and intermediate tires).

 

indeed, I totally forgot about the F1 race this weekend... The race itself on Sunday should be fine I think but the rest of the weekend, it's gonna be messy, and I don't think there's a lot of paved parking areas around the track that's been built

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Jim Marusak

Jim Marusak

Posted
Posted

Cool, I had not heard about that. Could be a wild ride for fans on Saturday, if Austin picks up some flash flooding.

what scares me is the fact that a lot of the fans probably aren't really familiar with the Austin area, more than a few being from outside the US. and communicating any type of life-threatening events, like severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, or flash floods, will be more than a challenge. I'm sure NWS-New Braunfels (Austin-San Antonio) could handle the ones that could speak Spanish, just given the area. but any other languages, I hope they got translators available from the U of T on standby. also, remember, they have different severe warning wordings/protocols in Europe and Asia than we do in the US, so we'll have to be wary of that as well.

there's nothing worse in a severe weather situation than people who can't understand the message to take appropriate actions. and if there is a near worst-case scenario down there, I hope they could handle it down there. if not, this could make Texas and the US look real bad, especially since the last couple of years in the wx community we've tried to emphasize communication of weather, wx scenarios, and wx protocols. let's hope this isn't a test of all those discussions.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

what scares me is the fact that a lot of the fans probably aren't really familiar with the Austin area, more than a few being from outside the US. and communicating any type of life-threatening events, like severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, or flash floods, will be more than a challenge. I'm sure NWS-New Braunfels (Austin-San Antonio) could handle the ones that could speak Spanish, just given the area. but any other languages, I hope they got translators available from the U of T on standby. also, remember, they have different severe warning wordings/protocols in Europe and Asia than we do in the US, so we'll have to be wary of that as well.

there's nothing worse in a severe weather situation than people who can't understand the message to take appropriate actions. and if there is a near worst-case scenario down there, I hope they could handle it down there. if not, this could make Texas and the US look real bad, especially since the last couple of years in the wx community we've tried to emphasize communication of weather, wx scenarios, and wx protocols. let's hope this isn't a test of all those discussions.

Flooding around here happens very fast, at least in my experience. If we get training cells the way we did on Memorial Day, downtown will be a wreck in no time, along with any place near one of the creeks which race downhill. In May it was Shoal and Waller Creeks that flooded the worst, with Barton Creek moderately flooding and not bad elsewhere. The wettest part of this event looks to be Saturday for I-35 anyway. If it's a more steady lighter rain that falls over a few days, it'll be much more beneficial since the ground can handle it after such a dry, hot summer. 

 

This might be a good site to keep track of:

 

http://www.ci.austin.tx.us/fews/water_level.cfm

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

Posted
Posted

Well one thing I have noticed with living in Texas is we seem to play catchup all at once with rain not gradually over time. Downfall is if this is going to be a rainy winter we have a long ways to go in the season and we have started early unlike spring. Will not be a good thing for flooding.

 

I've never seen rain like we had in June without a tropical system.  Usually, T-storms in latter May and June are popcorn variety.  We are more likely to begin drying out and becoming obscenely hot.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

A blend of the 00z GFS/Euro would be wide  spread 6 - 8" for the DFW area with some points picking up 10"+  :flood:

 

Also, based on the 00z NAM image posted above and the upgraded 03z SREF, the heaviest totals would be on the NW side of the DFW area. The Euro is shifted to the SE of the the above NAM image and the GFS is kind of in the middle. Either way, lots of rain coming!

 

It's been a long time since we have seen a map like this:

 

25hp99z.png

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

CR5m-HxWcAAPgdK.png

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 518
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 100 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...BROKEN SSW-NNE SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED EXPECTED TO EDGE
SLOWLY E ACROSS W TX THROUGH SUNRISE. WITH MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
AND ASCENT EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE WITH THE GLANCING INFLUENCE
OF NRN MEXICO SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND WITH LOW-LVL SELY WINDS
ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE-RICH AIR TO REGION...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS/SMALL BOW ECHOES WITH A RISK
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WIND.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
FORT STOCKTON TEXAS TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF PLAINVIEW TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21040.


...CORFIDI

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

CR6IuNCWcAAulvX.png

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...W TX PECOS VALLEY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ERN TX
PNHDL/WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518...

VALID 220832Z - 221030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
BUT... LOCALIZED DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS AND SOME RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO MAY CONTINUE WITH A SLOW MOVING SQUALL LINE ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

DISCUSSION...WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF 40 KT SOUTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW...A MODEST WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED SURFACE BASED COLD POOL IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A SLOW BUT STEADY EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE
ONGOING SQUALL LINE. NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD
POOL...LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR...AS WELL AS SHEAR ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY...REMAIN STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOCYCLONES...AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
TEXAS TO THE EAST OF WW 518 THROUGH 10-12Z.

WHILE IT STILL APPEARS THAT A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AND MORE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE NORTH OF ABILENE...ON THE NORTHERN/ LEADING
EDGE OF 65F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS...PROBABLY WILL LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...LOCALIZED DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SOUTHWEST OF ABILENE INTO THE PECOS VALLEY...ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SLOWER SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...THE
RISK FOR A LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUST /OR PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO/
STILL SEEMS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT HIGHER... AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

..KERR.. 10/22/2015

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