Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[jm1220]

Wildfires east of Austin:

 

http://kxan.com/2015/10/14/hidden-pines-fire-continues-to-burn-in-bastrop-county/

 

Smoke has been visible in the eastern sky here for the last couple of days. Yesterday, I could even see some small plumes going up to the east. 

[wxmx]

W GoM cyclone next week? They are quite rare this late in the season.

[bubba hotep]

W GoM cyclone next week? They are quite rare this late in the season.

 

It looks like maybe Jerry '89 was the only storm of the modern record to form this late in the BoC and landfall in LA or TX? It is also rare to see a hurricane anywhere in the Atlantic basin after mid-October during a strong El Nino.

 

What are your thoughts? The models have been struggling with that area all season and have had a few false alarms already.

 

ETA: One thing is for sure, development down there that stays east of Texas screws DFW and E. Texas out of beneficial rainfall. We need that to be a non starter or a weak sloppy system. 

[aggiegeog]

Tropical development seems unlikely and unless you are on the coast it would not be beneficial. Hope we can get a nice bowling ball low to sit over the state though hope we don't see what we saw in May.

[Quincy]

Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over parts of LA and now TX.

 

Dry today, with RH values as low as 8% at Hugo, OK:

[DoctorMu]

GFS brings that tropical brew to the coast, and CLL will see mid to late week wetness.  

 

We could use some lemonade.  Everything here is desiccated.

 

[jm1220]

There's some hope about a week down the road that an upper level low can get far enough east to bring rain to central TX, but we just had another false alarm setup with the upper low that drenched west TX and NM and then retrograded as the current huge ridge built west. We really need that ridge to weaken or move east a little so these troughs digging into the West can bring some moisture in from the Pacific to the drought areas. Otherwise, this new upper low might just rain over the same people in west TX and retrograde or pull away again. 

 

The fires in Bastrop are becoming more serious, but the lack of wind is helping today. Incredible how this same area was flooded 4 months ago under record rain. Goes to show how hot and dry the summer's been. 

 

http://www.kvue.com/story/news/local/2015/10/13/multiple-fires-burning-bastrop-county/73875006/

[cstrunk]

We're in a fire weather watch for the next couple of days. At least it's supposed to cool down this weekend and there's rain forecast for next week.

[wxmx]

12z Euro brings a Cat 1 to the TX/LA border...now the GFS is the one to the left, which would preclude any tropical organization, but would bring a lot of rain inland.

[bubba hotep]

Just a little bit of model thrashing around going on right now! It looks like our rain chances next week are pretty closely tied to whatever happens with the potential Gulf system. I have a feeling we are going to get left high and dry... 

[bubba hotep]

A blend of the 12z Euro and GFS would be 5 - 8" area wide for DFW     

[Quixotic1]

I'm serious when I say that IMBY has seen one rain event since Bill in June.

[bubba hotep]

I'm serious when I say that IMBY has seen one rain event since Bill in June.

We've lucked out a couple of times over IMBY.

I'm growing cautiously optimistic about the end of next week into the weekend. Looks like it could be a nice soaking for everyone.

[aggiegeog]

Consecutive mornings in the 40s and lots of rain in the forecast, this is what Fall should be.

[bubba hotep]

DFW jackpot?

 

 

[cstrunk]

DFW jackpot?

 

 

 

I hope some good rains reach farther east, too.

[bubba hotep]

Wow, 00z Euro showing widespread areas of 5"+ for DFW but the GFS is much more conservative. We are getting into the Euro's wheel house and I don't trust the GFS, given how complicated this setup looks.

[DoctorMu]

From fire to flood.

 

Both the HGX and DFW areas on tap for massive rainfall.

[aggiegeog]

A couple of very interesting articles discussing the upcoming winter.

Couple of winter weather outlooks posted by meteorologists:

 

Very detailed:

https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-201516/

 

Not as detailed but you Arkansas and Oklahoma folks will really like it:

http://www.weathervue.net/winter-forecast-15-16.html

Things are looking similar to 09/10 in many ways. Though this is a difficult forecast because there are no analogs with this extreme of a set of warm SST anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic.

[bubba hotep]

From fire to flood.

Both the HGX and DFW areas on tap for massive rainfall.

12z GFS/Euro blend points to the potential for widespread 6"+ totals in the DFW area, especially east of I-35. This will also blow my "dry October analogs" out of the water but they will still hold for July through September.

[1900hurricane]

Feels good to be talking about heavy rain again. Low level moisture trajectories right now are coming from east of Florida. Solid, but if we can get trajectories off the Caribbean, it could blow this even wide open. The GFS is trending in the other direction currently however.

 

As for a cold snap towards the turn of the month, watch the Western Pacific. Typhoon Champi has the potential to blow up into a huge extratropical storm near the Aleutians much like Nuri last year. I think the prospects for the cold snap look about as good as can be when considering the range.

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS crushing Denton & Collin Counties and up towards Paris. Taken verbatim, someone could see over a foot of rain on this run.

[Quixotic1]

It would take a foot of rain to fix my back yard.

[bubba hotep]

Feels good to be talking about heavy rain again. Low level moisture trajectories right now are coming from east of Florida. Solid, but if we can get trajectories off the Caribbean, it could blow this even wide open. The GFS is trending in the other direction currently however.

As for a cold snap towards the turn of the month, watch the Western Pacific. Typhoon Champi has the potential to blow up into a huge extratropical storm near the Aleutians much like Nuri last year. I think the prospects for the cold snap look about as good as can be when considering the range.

I posted a couple of weeks ago that I was hopeful that the WWB would set off this chain of events - typhoons -> recurve -> cold dump

[cstrunk]

It would take a foot of rain to fix my back yard.

 

If I got a foot of rain I think it would wash my backyard away... it's 50% bare.

[Roy]

Finally some rain! Been so stinking dry. But, may be too much, enough to wipe the dry summer completely and then some....

[jm1220]

Part 2 of this later in the weekend might be what produces for us in central/south TX. The first part, at least on the GFS/NAM, looks more like a northern and western TX event, with the upper air support moving out before it can reach us down here for anything significant. The second part looks more potent. 

[aggiegeog]

Heavy snow this week above 10,500 feet in New Mexico and some as low as 9,000 feet. This is looking to be a great year for snow in that area.

[jm1220]

NWS Austin going with 3-6" widespread for I-35 and most of the Hill Country with locally 8-10".

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS is off the rails! Showing 14"+ of rain across parts of DFW through 78hrs

ETA: 17 to 20" through 84 hrs. Someone pull the plug before this run crashes the whole NCEP system!