Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[aggiegeog]

12Z GFS looks much like previous runs. Heavy rain and storms Monday night and into Tuesday morning then cool and dry for the remainder of the week. As we all know tracks can shift quite a bit when we are still this far out so I am watching this closely for a more southern tract which would get much more of Texas into the snow zone. Nothing to suggest any snow outside of the Panhandle right now though. Western Kansas still looks to be the bullseye for snow with well over 2 feet.

[bubba hotep]

It's finally here! First Euro EPS run with snow for the northern parts of the DFW area. It looks like 3 members get snow into the area with 1 being a legit storm.

[NTXYankee]

It's finally here! First Euro EPS run with snow for the northern parts of the DFW area. It looks like 3 members get snow into the area with 1 being a legit storm.

What period is this? I like the possibility of severe weather Monday and Monday night around here.

[aggiegeog]

Already down to 44 here which matches the coolest readings of the year. Upper 30s are possible.

[aggiegeog]

18Z GFS going with a massive TDay snowstorm from SE NM through N TX.

[Quixotic1]

38 last night!

[aggiegeog]

38 last night!

Nice, I had 40.

[Quixotic1]

Nice, I had 40.

We are right on schedule.

[bubba hotep]

We are right on schedule.

 

[Quixotic1]

GFS not messing around with back edge dusting. Going to straight up troll early this year!

[bubba hotep]

DFW needs just over 4" to break the yearly rainfall total but it doesn't look like this system will get it done. The runs today say that 1.5-2" is probably what the official station at DFW will see. However, convection is a funny thing and they could obviously get more or less depending on how things play out.  

[Quincy]

DFW needs just over 4" to break the yearly rainfall total but it doesn't look like this system will get it done. The runs today say that 1.5-2" is probably what the official station at DFW will see. However, convection is a funny thing and they could obviously get more or less depending on how things play out.  

Whatever squall line that develops early Tuesday is going to put down some locally, intense rainfall rates, but it's in and out relatively quick. Widespread rainfall totals may not be overly significant, but I think some spots will get 3-4". All guidance really soups up the environment, no surprise with a SE fetch from the Gulf and a screaming low-level jet working in. 

[raindancewx]

NAM and GFS both show light snow in Albuquerque 48-60 hours out. CIPS still on board as of the update half an hour ago.

 

  

[jm1220]

DFW needs just over 4" to break the yearly rainfall total but it doesn't look like this system will get it done. The runs today say that 1.5-2" is probably what the official station at DFW will see. However, convection is a funny thing and they could obviously get more or less depending on how things play out.  

There will be a dumping somewhere, right now models have it over the Mississippi Valley. FWIW, the Halloween deluge we had in Austin was mostly modeled to be a 2-3" rain event-the airport ended up with over 15". 

 

If I see a decent squall line from this I'll be thrilled. Most of the action looks to be north of here. 

[aggiegeog]

NAM and GFS both show light snow in Albuquerque 48-60 hours out. CIPS still on board as of the update half an hour ago.

Looks good for y'all. I think y'all will do well this season on snow.

[bubba hotep]

Also, the 00z Euro EPS and Control both look to get snow in DFW by the end of Thanksgiving week. The signal for something has been gradually building in the longer range and we have been cashing in the past couple of years with the -EPO.

ETA: I probably should say "wintery mischief" as an esteemed poster used to say

[raindancewx]

Looks good for y'all. I think y'all will do well this season on snow.

If any of you guys have ideas on what the AMO will end up at averaged for Nov-Apr, what the ONI will be in 3.4 for DJF, and what the PDO will end up at averaged for Nov-Apr, I can run a regression to output snow totals for Albuquerque. 

 

The regression outputs a snow amount been based on five numbers, and if you know the five numbers it's quite accurate...of course getting the five numbers is hard!

 

The regression uses N-A AMO, N-A PDO, DJF ONI, August+October rain at the Sunport (1.26" in 2015) and years since ABQ last had >9.6" snow - one in this case - since we had 15.2" of snow from Oct 14 - May 15. 

 

I've been assuming ONI would be ~1.8 to 2.2 for DJF, PDO at 1.5-2.0, and AMO at 0.10 to 0.20 but those are all fairly big ranges. 

[Quixotic1]

AMO and ONI can be approximated. The PDO. Aye, now there's the rub...

[bubba hotep]

DFW should be adding some to the '15 totals tonight, towards the record 1/10" by 1/10"!

 

[bubba hotep]

The GFS continues to troll us with maybe an 1" of wet heave snow?

 

 

 

 

[NTXYankee]

The storms this evening don't look bad but the lightning is pretty intense at times, power blew twice now from some close strikes.

[bubba hotep]

The storms this evening don't look bad but the lightning is pretty intense at times, power blew twice now from some close strikes.

 

Yea, I've been pretty impressed so far. The couple of HRRR runs that I looked at earlier didn't seem to have anything like this. 

[bubba hotep]

AMO and ONI can be approximated. The PDO. Aye, now there's the rub...

 

The October PDO came in at 1.47. It looks like the PDO could be positive until the end of the year based on the fact that all  years in the data set that were 1.00+ in ASO stayed positive in ND. It doesn't look like we will see a '57 type fall off and '09 is a joke of a PDO analog. 

[Jebman]

The last three storm systems have given North TX, NE TX, OK, MO, AR, and LA plentiful rainfall, while south central TX has had small amts of rain or none at all.

 

This is a very strong Nino, but it is turning out to be quite different from other strong Nino events we have seen. It looks like south central Texas is going back to a very dry pattern, while northern and northeastern TX are getting regular rains. Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana are also experiencing very wet conditions. Larry Cosgrove's latest predictions have Louisiana at 800 percent of normal rainfall for the winter!

 

Nothing can stop south central TX from getting low rainfall, not even a very strong Nino like this year's.

 

I predict that this winter will overall turn out to be quite dry for Austin, leading into a very hot and extremely dry spring and summer 2016.

 

But North and northeast TX will be very different, those places will see well above normal rains, followed by above normal snows, then flooding rains in March, April and May. Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri will see regular rains, even flooding rains into spring and even early summer 2016.

 

South Central Texas will continue drier than a martini.

 

Now I see why the trees down here are so short compared to back east in N Virginia.

Rain is SCARCE in Austin! They get these extreme events then its back to the Central Texas Desertification Project.

Weather in Austin is kind of like a game of craps -  When it comes to getting any rain, it is All or Nothing.

[NTXYankee]

Metroplex chopped from enhanced risk, more likely just some heavy rain out of this.

[bubba hotep]

Latest run of the HRRR and 4K NAM are developing heavy rain across DFW well ahead of the main line. 4k NAM has 5"+ across parts of Dallas and Collin County.

[jm1220]

The last three storm systems have given North TX, NE TX, OK, MO, AR, and LA plentiful rainfall, while south central TX has had small amts of rain or none at all.

This is a very strong Nino, but it is turning out to be quite different from other strong Nino events we have seen. It looks like south central Texas is going back to a very dry pattern, while northern and northeastern TX are getting regular rains. Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana are also experiencing very wet conditions. Larry Cosgrove's latest predictions have Louisiana at 800 percent of normal rainfall for the winter!

Nothing can stop south central TX from getting low rainfall, not even a very strong Nino like this year's.

I predict that this winter will overall turn out to be quite dry for Austin, leading into a very hot and extremely dry spring and summer 2016.

But North and northeast TX will be very different, those places will see well above normal rains, followed by above normal snows, then flooding rains in March, April and May. Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri will see regular rains, even flooding rains into spring and even early summer 2016.

South Central Texas will continue drier than a martini.

Now I see why the trees down here are so short compared to back east in N Virginia.

Rain is SCARCE in Austin! They get these extreme events then its back to the Central Texas Desertification Project.

Weather in Austin is kind of like a game of craps - When it comes to getting any rain, it is All or Nothing.

This is Austin's 2nd wettest year on record. We have wet and dry seasons down here but Austin generally doesn't get "all its rain at once". We also have just about every kind of vegetation down here, which I think is cool-from cactuses to palm trees to just about anything else. Chill out and calm down.

[aggiegeog]

Most of NM will get snow today with the exception of SE NM. Some northern valley locations could see 6" and some northern peaks could see over 12".

[bubba hotep]

DFW back in the 5% TOR hatch, odd progression today

[Jebman]

This is Austin's 2nd wettest year on record. We have wet and dry seasons down here but Austin generally doesn't get "all its rain at once". We also have just about every kind of vegetation down here, which I think is cool-from cactuses to palm trees to just about anything else. Chill out and calm down.

I'm chillin, lol.

 

This is Austin's 2nd wettest year because of those heavy rains in May and in late October. I'll concede that, I was down here for both events, lol.

 

However, Austin has generally light rain events in between those crazy extremes.

South Central Texas is downright dry compared to the regular normal rains I get to enjoy in northern Virginia.

This is a very strong Nino, and still Austin gets light rain in events, or almost no rain at all, while communities downstream generally receive steady light to moderate events on a regular basis.

 

I am perfectly calm and I am chilling out, I am just a little disappointed because I am accustomed to seeing autumnal isentropic upglide events with steady light to moderate rain in November, December and the other cool months.

Down here in south central Texas these "rain events" are typically lighter and much more short lived, that they are in northeastern Texas, in Louisiana, in Missouri and in Arkansas which tend to be well downstream of developing events.

 

Too, upper level lows do need to be a bit farther south that they have been the past couple of events. A four corners upper level low means we get humid and warm here, even in November, with light streamer showers and maybe a skinny line of thundershowers that generally pass the Austin region in a half hour with about a tenth of an inch of rain.

 

Like tomorrow morning at 6am, lol.

 

Most of the rain from a Four Corners upper low will be located farther northeast, which is why northeast TX and points northeast tend to get those sweet soaking rains featuring slugs of light to moderate  rain lasting HOURS not 20 minutes along with cool conditions. The current Four Corners low is going to treat Illinois and particularly Indiana with hours and hours of light to moderate rainfall under cool conditions and with battleship gray skies, just the way I like my weather.

 

Drier Austin is going to take me some time to get used to.