Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[cstrunk]

I disagree.  the 4AM hanging out in the hall way thing was surreal.  

 

I don't know if others had loudspeakers, I'd like to know what they were saying.  The echo was so bad it sounded like I was standing at the 54th Parallel in Korea.  

 

I meant for my localized region. I know it was worse out towards DFW.

[aggiegeog]

I meant for my localized region. I know it was worse out towards DFW.

Yea, E TX was pretty tranquil with some wind gusts around 30 and generally about an inch of rain with up to 4 inches in a couple spots. The cool temps in the low 50s are nice though. Time to enjoy the rest of the week before winter gives us a preview this weekend then progressively colder shots beyond this weekend with chances for wintery precip beginning post TDay.

[Quixotic1]

I meant for my localized region. I know it was worse out towards DFW.

My bad.

[bubba hotep]

Don't look at the 12z 15 day Euro control run!

[Captmorg70]

Don't look at the 12z 15 day Euro control run!

What did it show?

[aggiegeog]

Don't have access to Euro besides free upper air which looks good. The GFS ensembles look good also.

[aggiegeog]

Going through the reports on Facebook from the NM ski resorts looks like they received 18-36" from this storm. The towns and cities looked like they got anywhere from 1-8". Impressive early season snow, hope there are many more like it.

[aggiegeog]

12Z GFS has come back to its senses after a ridiculous 06Z run. The 7-10 days after Thanksgiving look very cold and we will likely have multiple surprise disturbances riding the STJ out of Mexico. This run even has some post-frontal snow for NE TX next Sat.

[1900hurricane]

It's too cold out.

[aggiegeog]

I had 42 this morning, on the way into the mid to upper 60s under sunny skies. This is hard to beat unless it is going to snow.

[cstrunk]

12Z GFS has come back to its senses after a ridiculous 06Z run. The 7-10 days after Thanksgiving look very cold and we will likely have multiple surprise disturbances riding the STJ out of Mexico. This run even has some post-frontal snow for NE TX next Sat.

 

I'll be driving back from Omaha, NE next Saturday... great.

[radarman]

792

NOUS44 KFWD 172148

PNSFWD

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181000-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

348 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

...PRELIMINARY NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 11/17/15 TORNADO EVENTS...

.OVERVIEW...AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE MOVED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS

DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. AT LEAST TWO TORNADOES HAVE BEEN

CONFIRMED AFTER PRELIMINARY SURVEYS. OTHER DAMAGE ACROSS THE METROPLEX

WILL BE INVESTIGATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.KELLER TORNADO...

RATING: EF-0

ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 70-80 MPH

PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.4 MILE

PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 30 YARDS

FATALITIES: 0

INJURIES: 0

START DATE: NOV 17 2015

START TIME: 328 AM CST

START LOCATION: 1.7 S KELLER / TARRANT / TEXAS

START LAT/LON: 32.91 /-97.23

END DATE: NOV 17 2015

END TIME: 329 AM CST

END LOCATION: 1.6 S KELLER / TARRANT / TEXAS

END_LAT/LON: 32.92 / -97.22

.SURVEY_SUMMARY: THE KELLER TORNADO WAS BRIEF AND AFFECTED SEVERAL

HOUSES NEAR RAPP ROAD AND RUFE SNOW DRIVE. THE DAMAGE WAS CONCENTRATED

ALONG A 30 TO 50 YARD PATH AND INCLUDED SEVERAL TREES WHICH WERE BLOWN

DOWN...AND SEVERAL HOMES HAD MINOR ROOF DAMAGE.

.HICKORY CREEK/CORINTH TORNADO...

RATING: EF-1

ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 85-95 MPH

PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1.5 MILES

PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50 YARDS

FATALITIES: 0

INJURIES: 0

START DATE: NOV 17 2015

START TIME: 344 AM CST

START LOCATION: HICKORY CREEK / DENTON / TEXAS

START LAT/LON: 33.13 / -97.06

END DATE: NOV 17 2015

END TIME: 348 AM CST

END LOCATION: HICKORY CREEK / DENTON / TEXAS

END_LAT/LON: 33.13 / -97.04

.SURVEY_SUMMARY: A NARROW PATH OF DAMAGE WAS FOUND IN THE HICKORY CREEK AND

CORINTH AREAS OF DENTON COUNTY. AS THE TORNADO BEGAN...SEVERAL HOMES HAD

MINOR ROOF DAMAGE AND A FEW HOMES HAD GARAGE DOORS DESTROYED. AS THE

TORNADO MOVED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...A CAR WASH SUFFERED HEAVY

DAMAGE TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE BUSINESS. AS THE STORM CONTINUED TO MOVE

TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...SEVERAL BUSINESS SIGNS WERE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED

BEFORE THE TORNADO LIFTED AFTER CAUSING SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOTEL

ON THE EAST SIDE OF INTERSTATE 35E.

NOTE:

THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO

CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN

NWS STORM DATA.

$$

FOX

[aggiegeog]

I'll be driving back from Omaha, NE next Saturday... great.

Could be interesting. Still 10 days out though, but the signal for Arctic air is very strong and the STJ going strong.

[bubba hotep]

What did it show?

A crush job from New Mexico trough the Panhandles, across OK, into AR and clipping N. Texas (basically north of I20). Today backed off that but had more of an I20 special snow.

The interesting thing is that the pattern depicted in the Euro EPS, GEFS, and Euro Weeklies would keep Texas below normal into December.

[bubba hotep]

First freeze this weekend? I feel pretty confident about my backyard but not sure about DFW. Avg first freeze is the 22nd, so basically right on queue.

[aggiegeog]

First freeze this weekend? I feel pretty confident about my backyard but not sure about DFW. Avg first freeze is the 22nd, so basically right on queue.

Looking likely for most, but as you say may hold 33-34 in the cities. I think NE TX gets one Sunday and Monday especially north of I-20 where I could see upper 20s occurring.

[bubba hotep]

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice  5m5 minutes ago

With such a potent arctic air mass pushing down the West next week, northern TX could see a coating of snow late Nov

 

[aggiegeog]

 

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice  5m5 minutes ago

With such a potent arctic air mass pushing down the West next week, northern TX could see a coating of snow late Nov

And the GFS ensemble means have been running at higher than that.

[raindancewx]

Only 3% of New Mexico is now in "moderate drought" and the "abnormally dry" classification is shrinking too. We seem to be in a blend of the +AMO, +PDO phase drought and the +AMO, -PDO phase drought, given the PDO spike recently and the current conditions?

 

 

[bubba hotep]

Only 3% of New Mexico is now in "moderate drought" and the "abnormally dry" classification is shrinking too. We seem to be in a blend of the +AMO, +PDO phase drought and the +AMO, -PDO phase drought, given the PDO spike recently and the current conditions?

We are +PDO/ -AMO but the AMO shifted towards neutral at the end of the summer but the Atlantic is cooling again. That chart is from a great paper that everyone should read.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS

[aggiegeog]

12z GFS

Looks like an icy weekend for y'all according to that.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like an icy weekend for y'all according to that.

Yea, even without looking at soundings there is an obvious warm nose but it doesn't appear super thick. I give that run little chance of verifying with so many unknowns at this point. Will there be a new Pacific tropical system to feed moisture? What happens as Infa transitions? Etc. Etc. However, the signal for something wintery in the end of November or early December has been there for some time.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Looks like another possible severe weather event later next workweek. 

 

Yet another western trough is poised to dig down, bringing a setup that's similar to the 500mb pattern that we just experienced. However... at this point, the conditions aren't looking as impressive as the mid-November outbreak. 

 

There's a lack of favorable overlap of CAPE and SRH. Where there's relatively high CAPE (up to 1500 j/kg), there's unidirectional winds aloft. Where there's veering winds aloft, there's lower CAPE. Last event, there was sufficiently veered winds (200-400 effective SRH) throughout the warm sector, which featured widespread >1000 j/kg of CAPE

 

That's where we stand now with the GFS, which tends to underestimate moisture and instability. So this bears watching in case CAPE increases under the veering winds aloft, or in case the veered winds become more widespread

 

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS

Add 18z to the list! How long until it folds to the Euro? 2015 Texas Winter Storm Battle - GFS vs Euro!

[Quixotic1]

Cavanaugh has a good AFD for next weekend.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FWD&issuedby=FWD&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

He's awesome. Teaches quite a bit and talks about the possibility while keeping me grounded.

[bubba hotep]

Cavanaugh has a good AFD for next weekend.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FWD&issuedby=FWD&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

He's awesome. Teaches quite a bit and talks about the possibility while keeping me grounded.

Looking forward to reading it on train home from downtown. Regardless of winter weather, pretty good model agreement that DFW breaks the yearly rainfall record before the end of the month.

[aggiegeog]

Add 18z to the list! How long until it folds to the Euro? 2015 Texas Winter Storm Battle - GFS vs Euro!

18Z GFS ensembles are a no go for winter weather. It is going to be a wild ride watching models over the next week.

[bubba hotep]

Cavanaugh has a good AFD for next weekend.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FWD&issuedby=FWD&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

He's awesome. Teaches quite a bit and talks about the possibility while keeping me grounded.

That was a weenie smack down! "To all y'all fawning over the raw data let me breakout the DT!" I don't think I've ever seen that much DT talk in a AFD.

[bubba hotep]

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FOR THOSE WATCHING RAW MODEL OUTPUT THIS FAR
OUT...IT IS EASY TO NOTICE THAT TEMPERATURES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DROP BELOW FREEZING WHILE STILL INDICATING GOOD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THINK THAT OUR CHANCES
OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION ARE NOT QUITE AS GOOD AS RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING BECAUSE OF THE PROGGED POSITION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH ON THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE MAPS DURING THIS TIME. THE
DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE MAPS KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY
RESERVOIR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE SHALLOW COLD AIR CAN
CERTAINLY "OUT RUN" THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY RESERVOIR ALOFT...DEEP
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN TIED TO THIS RESERVOIR. THE DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE HELPS DETERMINE THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE...WHICH IS
MINIMIZED UNDER THE PV RESERVOIR ALOFT. A LOW THICKNESS
TROPOSPHERE DIRECTLY CORRELATES TO A COLDER AIRMASS ON
AVERAGE...MEANING THAT COLD AIR WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TIED TO THIS
FEATURE ALOFT. WITH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINING SOUTH OF THIS
RESERVOIR ALOFT...THINK THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR US TO RECEIVE DEEP
COLD AIR IS LOW...MAKING A COLD RAIN MORE LIKELY THAN A FROZEN
PRECIPITATION EVENT AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS.

 

You can see some changes in the DT maps from 12z to 18z:

 

12z

 

 

vs. 18z

 

 

You can see the changes in the DT maps from 12z to 18z and the corresponding changes at the surface. I agree with Cavanaugh and would like to see the tail of that PV streamer drag across N. Texas (esp. on the Euro!) before getting excited about this. Here is a good read on Texas snow setups http://www.nwas.org/digest/papers/2009/Vol33No1/Pg37-Ryan.pdf