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Let's talk Spring! / Severe Storms Etc.


Steve

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I was camping when one hit a few years ago. If I didn't hear the weather radio go off for the severe tstorm watch, I wouldn't have noticed anything unusual. Pretty scary when the warnings came out for the derecho. It made a nice mess, tree limbs and trees down everywhere.

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Lost half a tree in my back yard with that storm.  Spent most of the day on Saturday cleaning it up and then on Sunday another storm came through can took out the other half.  That tree was 15 years old, I know because I planted it when my daughter was born.  It had survived many storms, but those two storms took it apart like it was made of styrofoam. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Could parts of this subforum be in play for their first slight risk of 2015 this coming Tuesday?  SPC has a D4 15% risk for most of MO and small parts of southern IA and western IL:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0333 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015   VALID 241200Z - 291200Z   ...DISCUSSION...   ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT   ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY   DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD.  GFS IS STRONGER WITH ITS SPEED MAX   APPROACHING 100KT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS NRN KS INTO NRN MO BY   25/00Z.  THIS STRONGER SOLUTION FORCES A DEEPER SFC LOW OVER IA BY   PEAK HEATING WHILE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH LOW OVER MO.    REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY RETURN ACROSS THE   WARM SECTOR FOR A THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN A STRONGLY   SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  WHILE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS   IA/NRN MO...A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO   NERN OK WHERE HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER.   LATER DAY5...TRAILING FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS   BEFORE UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORCES THE FRONT SEWD LATE IN THE   PERIOD.  WHILE SEVERE PROBS WILL NOT CURRENTLY BE INTRODUCED ALONG   THIS WIND SHIFT...SCT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE   ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO AR WEDNESDAY.  WILL MONITOR THIS   REGION AS AN ADDITIONAL DAY FOR MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION COULD   SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE GIVEN MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR.   ..DARROW.. 03/21/2015
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Guest ovweather

Almost 3 months into 2015 and there hasn't been one Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued. A few Tornado Watches in the gulf states back in January but that is it.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Had the first warning of the season for the ILN cwa which has since expired.

 

 

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
931 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT.

* AT 930 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR STATE ROUTE 41 AT STATE ROUTE
235...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN
CLARK COUNTY...INCLUDING STATE ROUTE 41 AT STATE ROUTE 235...NORTH
HAMPTON...LAWRENCEVILLE AND TREMONT CITY.
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Yeah, the beam is really close to the ground there too so I'd say it's likely one touched down. It looked like that for maybe 8 mins give or take.

One of my local news showed a radar similar to the one you posted above but said there have been no reports of damage at that point.

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One of my local news showed a radar similar to the one you posted above but said there have been no reports of damage at that point.

It is a fairly rural area, lots of farms, saw some houses here and there but not a lot, so it may not have hit anything. But with that couplet only a few hundred feet above ground I'd say there's a very high chance it produced. We'll find out Friday hopefully.

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JB touting the period between mid April and mid May for significant severe wx.... OV, lower lakes, down into southern plains. Then again he might be getting nervous about all the seasonal March subscription cancellations and needs a fresh piece of bait... :lol:

I could see it. Typically seasons coming off cold winters bode well for our area

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It is a fairly rural area, lots of farms, saw some houses here and there but not a lot, so it may not have hit anything. But with that couplet only a few hundred feet above ground I'd say there's a very high chance it produced. We'll find out Friday hopefully.

It's official. ILN has confirmed an EF-0 tornado.

post-4544-0-39705900-1428111680_thumb.pn

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  • 3 weeks later...

ILN confirmed an EF0 tornado in Kettering from last night.

 

 

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

...TORNADO CONFIRMED IN KETTERING IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY OHIO...

LOCATION...KETTERING IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY OHIO
DATE...APRIL 19 2015
ESTIMATED TIME...1056 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...70 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...75 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...0.9 MILE
BEGINNING LAT/LON...39.6699N / 84.1171W
ENDING LAT/LON...39.6815N / 84.1111W
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON OH HAS CONFIRMED A
TORNADO NEAR KETTERING IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY OHIO ON APRIL 19 2015.

A GROUND SURVEY PERFORMED ON APRIL 20TH IN KETTERING CONFIRMED A BRIEF
TORNADO OCCURRED LATE SUNDAY EVENING APRIL 19TH.

THE SURVEY FOUND EVIDENCE OF A WEAK TORNADO TOUCHING DOWN NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF GLENMINA DRIVE AND EAST RAHN ROAD. SIGNIFICANT
TREE DAMAGE CONSISTING OF SNAPPED AND UPROOTED TREES WAS NOTED
ALONG MUCH OF THE LENGTH OF GLENMINA DRIVE BOUNDED BY EAST RAHN
ROAD AND WILMINGTON PIKE. IN PARTICULAR...MANY OF THE TREES FELL
IN A CROSS-PATH COMPONENT TO THE STORM/S MOTION...SUGGESTING
THE PRESENCE OF GROUND-BASED CIRCULATION ALONG OR IMMEDIATELY WEST
OF GLENMINA DRIVE. LITTLE TO NO STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS NOTED IN
THIS AREA.

THE TORNADO CROSSED WILMINGTON PIKE WHERE DAMAGE BECAME SPORADIC IN
NATURE AS THE TORNADO WEAKENED AND BEGAN TO LIFT...WITH A FEW TREES
BEING UPROOTED IN A SIMILAR CROSS-PATH COMPONENT TO THE TRAJECTORY
OF THE CIRCULATION. MINOR TREE AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS EVIDENT ALONG
PARKLAWN AND MEADOW PARK DRIVES. ANY SEMBLANCE OF A GROUND-BASED
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED BY CORLINGTON DRIVE.

THE DAMAGE IS CONSISTENT WITH WINDS AROUND 70 MPH. THE TORNADO WAS ON THE
GROUND FOR ABOUT A MINUTE.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO
THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.

$

PELOQUIN/BINAU
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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...

Anyone tired of the rain yet? I know I am. Every day for the past week we have had rain.

Please send it to Cincinnati, we are in desperate need of rain!!  Down over 3" for May and down 1" for June as well.  It missed to our north this past weekend and Monday, then missed to our south Tuesday then missed to our north today LOL

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Anyone tired of the rain yet? I know I am. Every day for the past week we have had rain.

 

Please send it to Cincinnati, we are in desperate need of rain!!  Down over 3" for May and down 1" for June as well.  It missed to our north this past weekend and Monday, then missed to our south Tuesday then missed to our north today LOL

 

you guys see the 00z 4084 hr gfs?   

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