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Post-Super Bowl Storm chance discussion


rossi

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the 50/50 really suppressed the height field on this run...forces the storm to go due east. Great run for the area. 

If you mean your area, not quite unless you're a fan of sleet after 3-5" of snow? What confluence there is looks to be very transient as there's no blocking ahead of it to keep the confluence in place. It's all advancing along quickly which is how this low is able to trend north.

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If you mean your area, not quite unless you're a fan of sleet after 3-5" of snow? What confluence there is looks to be very transient as there's no blocking ahead of it to keep the confluence in place. It's all advancing along quickly which is how this low is able to trend north.

Do u think the euro 850 depiction is too warm?

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If you mean your area, not quite unless you're a fan of sleet after 3-5" of snow? What confluence there is looks to be very transient as there's no blocking ahead of it to keep the confluence in place. It's all advancing along quickly which is how this low is able to trend north.

i'm in north central NJ...Euro is more than 3-5" for this area. Granted, I'm on the edge but it's not like the euro made a huge jump ..ticked north a bit yes but the big changes we saw on the models yesterday from this storm being a DC special to what it is now should be getting close to the limit. 

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Do u think the euro 850 depiction is too warm?

It trended north from 12z, that's what I see most of all. Every model tonight went north from 12z. I can't see the 850mb low track but I'd imagine that's on or north of NYC, meaning lots of sleet mixing in, 

 

Rain won't be a concern outside of the immediate shorelines, but the big snow totals are very likely to be north of the city. If 12z doesn't go back south to a degree, I think it's about a done deal-3 to 6 in the city, maybe 2 to 4 if the front end weakens in future runs (typical, as dry air eats up the front advance of snow sometimes), more north, and then tons of sleet and freezing rain.

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If you mean your area, not quite unless you're a fan of sleet after 3-5" of snow? What confluence there is looks to be very transient as there's no blocking ahead of it to keep the confluence in place. It's all advancing along quickly which is how this low is able to trend north.

 

 

If you mean your area, not quite unless you're a fan of sleet after 3-5" of snow? What confluence there is looks to be very transient as there's no blocking ahead of it to keep the confluence in place. It's all advancing along quickly which is how this low is able to trend north.

Could be 3-5 of mostly sleet too. seen that happen before. March 2007 comes to mind.Which sucks IMO. Butbetter than freezing rain, which I never want to see. Hurt myself pretty bad a few weeks back with a minor event.

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The Binghamton office has us under a Winter Storm Watch now for the possibility of seven or more inches of snow on Monday. (Seems they always lowball that predicted amount early on). The watch covers northeast Pennsylvania and most of central New York except northern Oneida County.

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The rain / snow line on like the 6z NAM looks 5 or 10 miles south of the 0z run...so this obsession with a "north" trend on the basis of one model suite seems to have been halted. 

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In fairness to JM1220, who must have made 40 posts in this thread saying the snowstorm will not come to fruition in the NYC / Long Island area...he at one time lived in Long Beach...which is about 5 miles or so south east of Kennedy Airport and is the worst location for snow in either NYC or Long Island as events that are snow most everywhere else are often rain or mixed in Long Beach. Let me say that when this sort of thing happens time and again to a weather enthusiast, it can unduly influence their judgements just a bit.

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The computers should do a good deal better with this one as opposed to Monday's...on Monday, cyclogenesis had not really occurred until right at the onset of the snow...making it more difficult to pin down precip coverage and exact movement...here...you have a well developed mid latitude cyclone barreling eastward.

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