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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion


PrinceFrederickWx
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6 hours ago, Lowershoresadness said:

just got outta work, someone fill me in

Still working out some issues with storm genesis location and time to "ramp up", which will make all the difference in the world. Still, a nice floor for S MD and Ern Shore of 2-4" so far. Considerably higher (6-8") with even a partial phase for the Eastern Shore and gangbusters if we can get the genesis location and speed right (8-12"). Blizz conditions not off the table either (for the coastline), but somewhat lower probability.

Will know more by 12z. Will issue a forecast here tomorrow afternoon after I get done doing stuff at work.

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This storm has been great for "We should have a pretty good idea with the next set of model runs" only to have no idea after those models run.  Could we get a little consensus, please?  We almost had it last night with the 0z until the GFS was like "HAHAH"

I wish Alex were joking, but flurries to 2 feet sounds about right (though I'm more confident the lower shore and beaches are still going to easily break warning criteria).  

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1 hour ago, twim19 said:

This storm has been great for "We should have a pretty good idea with the next set of model runs" only to have no idea after those models run.  Could we get a little consensus, please?  We almost had it last night with the 0z until the GFS was like "HAHAH"

I wish Alex were joking, but flurries to 2 feet sounds about right (though I'm more confident the lower shore and beaches are still going to easily break warning criteria).  

It’s just like the old days… pre satellite… many times I ended up shoveling a foot of “partly cloudy”….

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I was a teen for the blizzard of '96, but I can keenly recall watching the news the night before the storm hit and BBK (our local legendary forecaster who has long since retired) came on to tell us that we were about to get hit with a major blizzard.  I wasn't following models or anything at the time so I don't know if his not telling us sooner was because he didn't know or he was being conservative--I just remember it feeling like a surprise snow storm.

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Looking for 6-10" over for Lowershoresadness in the 'bury and eastern shore. 2-6" for the western coast of the Bay (slanted higher southwest). 1-3" west of there. The western side will pick up half or more of their snow from the pre-storm frontogenesis-driven event. I expect that to overperform a bit due to the fact that the lift is co-located across the DGZ and persists for hours before the coastal blows up. Those kinds of events are often a bit sneaky: they start early and can produce healthy dendrites and aggregates. Surface temps will start a smidgen warm, but ground temps are cold. It won't take long to get the boundary layer to cool off, unlike last week.

Subject to some revision due to where the coastal actually ends up setting up. If the 850/700mb lows end up a bit further NW and we stay SSE/SE at 500mb, totals will get bumped.

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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Looking for 6-10" over for Lowershoresadness in the 'bury and eastern shore. 2-6" for the western coast of the Bay (slanted higher southwest). 1-3" west of there. The western side will pick up half or more of their snow from the pre-storm frontogenesis-driven event. I expect that to overperform a bit due to the fact that the lift is co-located across the DGZ and persists for hours before the coastal blows up. Those kinds of events are often a bit sneaky: they start early and can produce healthy dendrites and aggregates. Surface temps will start a smidgen warm, but ground temps are cold. It won't take long to get the boundary layer to cool off, unlike last week.

Subject to some revision due to where the coastal actually ends up setting up. If the 850/700mb lows end up a bit further NW and we stay SSE/SE at 500mb, totals will get bumped.

thanks for this

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Blizzard warning for you folks along the coast. Lewes and Rehoboth should be fun, then shut lol. I would love to chase but too much going on here, so I will enjoy whatever falls in my yard this time. If the latest trends are correct, there is a chance for more than a foot down there with plenty of drifting. Enjoy!

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13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Blizzard warning for you folks along the coast. Lewes and Rehoboth should be fun, then shut lol. I would love to chase but too much going on here, so I will enjoy whatever falls in my yard this time. If the latest trends are correct, there is a chance for more than a foot down there with plenty of drifting. Enjoy!

A foot would be great- I am very excited for this storm.  Let’s hope it over performs for everyone 

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I too am on the east side of town and am expecting a foot.  The trends have seemed to be moving towards more, not less and now with the Blizzard warning for OC, I suggests a bigger storm. 

Fortunately, I don't have any reputation to protect and so I can make these outlandish claims and let Dan and Co. keep putting out their conservative estimates.

 

Screen Shot 2022-01-28 at 8.30.58 AM.png

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4 minutes ago, twim19 said:

I too am on the east side of town and am expecting a foot.  The trends have seemed to be moving towards more, not less and now with the Blizzard warning for OC, I suggests a bigger storm. 

Fortunately, I don't have any reputation to protect and so I can make these outlandish claims and let Dan and Co. keep putting out their conservative estimates.

nice!   I hope your right Twim I'd love a foot or more. This may be one of those storms where NWS keeps upping our totals

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Yeah, yesterday when the WSW was issued, it was for 5-10.  Before I went to bed it was 6-11.  Now it's 6-12.  Alex Seymore is pretty bullish too, so I'm game.  

Off topic: Your signature cracks me up.  I've been lurking in weather forums for about a decade now (How I miss the Accuweather forums) and you are spot on.  

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