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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion


PrinceFrederickWx
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Feeling better about this Friday. Not quite there yet, but it's trending towards being a southern slider. Plenty of cold air around and if it comes in more amped/better timed, we cash in. If not, it's out to sea. But regardless, we don't end up with a slopfest or cold rain. All guidance trended better on the 00z. Another day of that and we'll be inside the D4 window and I'd be ready to get excited.
Talk dirty to me.

Always encouraging when you stop into the thread and post!

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Threat level gradually rising. Hoping it doesn't amplify *too* much at this point.
Tonight's euro seems close to ideal for the midshore Delmarva. They always say you have to smell the rain to get the best snow totals. This could be one where it's puking snow at my house in Lewes and rain in Salisbury or ocean city

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30 minutes ago, alexderiemer said:

Lots of goom and doom in the main thread. Still feel like we get a respectable event out of this either way

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To be expected after the Mt. Everest of Euro runs last night. There was nowhere to go but down from that one. That's why it's important not to bail all-in until more evidence accumulates. We're just not quite there yet and given the sensitivity of the positioning of the southern stream wave, it's probably not going to be all that clear until late tomorrow.

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Still not dead yet. Though it looks like LS over in Salisbury has a better chance than the rest of us on Fri night into Saturday. Front is slower than originally forecast and I expect the northern edge of the precip shield to clip us. The northern cutoff between virga and accumulating snow will be sharp. You will either be in it or not, generally speaking. Not the big storm I'm sure everybody was rooting for earlier this week, but never take your eye off a southern slider. They can sometimes bite at the last second.

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is this a big deal, little deal or no deal???
I think being geographically situated further East will help us in this situation, because a Miller b storm that can screw DC in Baltimore can sometimes still throw us a couple bones... So even if it turns out to be a bust for the main part of the sub form we might still get a decent hit out of it. That being said I'm still watching closely because it also looks like the kind of storm that could end up being a hit for everyone which would be awesome

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It does look like we're going to get another swing at it in this pattern later this week. The chance of a repeat "phase-miss" is lower this time. Regular reminder not to get too carried away with any one run or model. I want to see this trend stick through the 12z guidance tomorrow before I start investing.

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5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

It does look like we're going to get another swing at it in this pattern later this week. The chance of a repeat "phase-miss" is lower this time. Regular reminder not to get too carried away with any one run or model. I want to see this trend stick through the 12z guidance tomorrow before I start investing.

expectations can't get any lower at my location lol.  I laugh at snow maps but who knows. Last big snow I remember was superbowl sunday 1987. I think the bury got over 14 inches

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2 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

expectations can't get any lower at my location lol.  I laugh at snow maps but who knows. Last big snow I remember was superbowl sunday 1987. I think the bury got over 14 inches

You got 11" and a blizzard warning a few years ago, right? '17/early '18 was it? Or am I misremembering that one.

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3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

You got 11" and a blizzard warning a few years ago, right? '17/early '18 was it? Or am I misremembering that one.

no you are correct. I remember we got whacked from back to back storms but the big daddy from one storm was 87. I remember the scrolling at the bottom of the TV saying expect 12 to 18 inches.

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2 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

no you are correct. I remember we got whacked from back to back storms but the big daddy from one storm was 87. I remember the scrolling at the bottom of the TV saying expect 12 to 18 inches.

Ah, good stuff. Hopefully you cash in on this one too. Fingers crossed that you don't get into the mix zone.

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