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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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There’s been a continued modest colder trend on guidance overall. Still do not fully trust it until some more models take the mixing out of our area with this kind of system, but for those of us looking for a south trend to stay all snow there’s reason for hope. That map Tanchak posted will almost certainly not verify though. Looks like straight GFS. 

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Feels great outside at 47 degrees!  Snowpack went from 15"-12" so far today.

Everything seems to still be on track.  Gfs is definitely consistent with 12"+.  Would prefer the CMC fall in line to feel a little more confident. 

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2 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Feels great outside at 47 degrees!  Snowpack went from 15"-12" so far today.

Everything seems to still be on track.  Gfs is definitely consistent with 12"+.  Would prefer the CMC fall in line to feel a little more confident. 

Flying back from the west coast right now. Sounds likely there wasn’t too much melting today. Will definitely lose more tomorrow with rain. I’ve been out of the model loop all day but it doesn’t sound like any significant changes.

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1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Everything still seems on track.  Looks like a slight drying trend with the qpf if anything, but should still be a great storm.  

No significant changes as far as I can tell. Dropped down to 37 IMBY last night so not too much snow melt with DP in the mid 20's. Hoping for an earlier changeover today. The cold front looks to be near Huron OH right now. With an icy lake fronts tend to slip south of lakeshore more easily. 

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1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Everything still seems on track.  Looks like a slight drying trend with the qpf if anything, but should still be a great storm.  

What radar are you using.....this has been hard to track due to DTX outage.

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16 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Does anybody know why Lake and Cuyahoga county are under a winter storm warning while a winter storm watch is still in effect for Geauga and Ashtabula county.  For sure, CLE is not thinking of the possibility of putting these counties under and advisory...

Was not in the office yesterday or today...but from what I gathered the reasoning for holding watches south/east of Cuyahoga and Lake was more time to refine the exact accumulation forecasts, start times, and collaboration with ILN and PBZ who wanted to hold watches outside of the "slam dunk" areas farther north and west where it will just be snow and start sooner. The goal is to issue warnings 12-24 hours out unless there's overwhelming confidence and it's a higher-end situation so they did have time to hold the watches another cycle yesterday. With that said, I will agree to disagree with our current advisories from Knox-Holmes-Stark-Mahoning. 

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Anyways, overall trends have been for wave 1 to be a little more amped, resulting in NW Ohio seeing more of that QPF as rain today, and for wave 2 to be similar or slightly flatter. This should keep the Cleveland area just snow on Thursday, though Akron/Kent/Medina/Trumbull Co will probably find a way to sleet at times still when the WAA aloft really rips. It just always happens. There has also been a modest trend for the second wave tomorrow to be a bit slower. A few implications:

1) A little less overlap in the axes of heaviest snow with each wave in NW Ohio, leading to a more "ho-hum" 8-14" or so type event instead of the historic storm for Toledo that was on the table. Could still push top 10 2-day snows there (only needs to go over a foot for that). Even Cleveland loses a bit more QPF to rain, though they weren't slated to get as much from this first wave (and should still change to snow and get some accumulation this evening through tonight)

2) The flatter second wave should keep mixing well south of Cleveland, the lakeshore counties and snowbelt on Thursday, and will probably mainly be snow and some sleet in Akron. This brings the axis of heavier snow with the second wave a bit farther south. Still think Canton and Youngstown points south lose a fair amount of QPF to sleet or freezing rain through Thursday...however:

3) The somewhat slower trend with the second wave allows a little more QPF to fall into Thursday night, when the whole area will be cold enough for snow. So, this will help boost totals a bit more down towards Canton and Youngstown.

Feel like a rather safe 8-12" is a decent call for NW Ohio, Cleveland and the lakeshore counties and Snowbelt. Can't rule out the second wave trending a bit more amped and overperforming but feel like any 12"+ amounts will be more the exception than the rule. With falling temps through the event and wind to blow the snow around roads will be bad from tonight through Thursday night. Akron I'd be more like 6-10" as I still think they lose a bit to sleet and lower ratios, but a good storm and a dense accumulation...roads won't be pleasant. Canton/Youngstown I'm thinking it's more of a 4-8" or 5-9" with more sleet and probably at least some freezing rain. Should easily warrant a warning, and I'm hoping the early 12z stuff coming in a bit snowier down there will help nudge the headline decision in that direction. 

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