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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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6 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Well with the way all the non-meteorological people are talking on social media and around the water cooler, if we don't get atleast 10+ inches, they'll say it's an over-hyped bust. 

I wouldn't get too hung up on the colors. Those snowfall maps with the razor-thin cutoffs are inflating the snowfall relative to the depth change and (incorrectly) excluding sleet accumulations. I mean have you ever seen a (non-lake effect) storm go from 5" in Akron to two feet in Cleveland? Lol.

snodpc_acc.conus.png

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3 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said:

GFS looks like it's trying to break the storm in two.  6z showed essentially the same thing.

All other models thus far are north and still, ostensibly, are are a single storm.

...Waiting with baited breath for the 12z Euro.

 

12z GFS 2022-01-31 GL-OV Storm.jpg

Despite all of the shuffling on the models I think we are in a good spot for this one. Hopefully there will be more consensus with tonight's runs. 

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1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

If the trends continue, you'd be good in Strongsville too.

I would just head that way to visit my parents if the trends continue, but my roommate tested positive for Covid yesterday. So out of caution will be staying in Toledo for a bit. I have a hard time believing the super far south solutions. We can afford a bit more eastern movement/pressing of the high before we start to lose out on the second round Thursday. Seems to be a case of Euro/CMC vs. GFS/NAM/UK. Either way, still going to get WSW criteria snows it looks like.

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15 minutes ago, amt5626 said:

I would just head that way to visit my parents if the trends continue, but my roommate tested positive for Covid yesterday. So out of caution will be staying in Toledo for a bit. I have a hard time believing the super far south solutions. We can afford a bit more eastern movement/pressing of the high before we start to lose out on the second round Thursday. Seems to be a case of Euro/CMC vs. GFS/NAM/UK. Either way, still going to get WSW criteria snows it looks like.

Well I think 8-12 inches is still quite significant, especially with the plow shortages and the snowdrifts already built up from a few weeks ago. 

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33 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Hmmm. Not bad but hoping for a few inches more. That map gives me about 6-8 inches.

I listened to BAMWX's storm discussion and the Met said that after watching these kind of storms for several years, he thinks there may be some southward drift in the accums, but a pretty hard hit of snow for NEOH. 

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4 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said:

I listened to BAMWX's storm discussion and the Met said that after watching these kind of storms for several years, he thinks there may be some southward drift in the accums, but a pretty hard hit of snow for NEOH. 


Yeah. With the snowdrifts as high as they are already, even 7 inches is nothing to scoff at, but if it goes higher, it'll be great. (For weather enthusiasts) 

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23 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Here's the updated map through Friday morning. Looks reasonable, except there's a strange band across the SE portion where snowfall suddenly jumps 2+" across no more than like 5 miles.

Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast

8-12 inches. Getting better. 25 more and I'll shut up LOL

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13 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

@OHweather with another awesome short term write up today.   Enjoying the format! 

With the exception of the Canadian runs, all others are pretty favorable for us still.  Hoping we don't melt too much tomorrow-weds.   

Just read his AFD... that was outstanding. Sounds like 12-18" in our area with no mixing. 

Not sure how much will melt tomorrow or Wednesday. As long as we avoid heavy rain (which looks likely) it won't be too bad. We starting off in the low teens tomorrow and temps drop again tomorrow night. With an ice covered lake I'm betting a faster cold front passage along the immediate lakeshore. 

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1 hour ago, NEOH said:

Just read his AFD... that was outstanding. Sounds like 12-18" in our area with no mixing. 

Not sure how much will melt tomorrow or Wednesday. As long as we avoid heavy rain (which looks likely) it won't be too bad. We starting off in the low teens tomorrow and temps drop again tomorrow night. With an ice covered lake I'm betting a faster cold front passage along the immediate lakeshore. 

Yeah. Looks like we're gonna get slammed.

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3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Here's the updated map through Friday morning. Looks reasonable, except there's a strange band across the SE portion where snowfall suddenly jumps 2+" across no more than like 5 miles.

Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast

That's mainly because the procedures we use to populate the grids do not do well in situations like this where models have wildly different mixing. We had to manually add in the area of ZR to get a more realistic area of it down there (the starting point we got had way too little), so when it ran the accumulations it took QPF from the snow and gave it to the ice down there but it was all or nothing causing a very sharp gradient. We smoothed the snow grids slightly but decided it was good enough since it will change a few more times anyways...the cut-off from solid warning snow (and sleet) to less snow and more ice was roughly where we wanted it right now. There may actually be a cut-off close to that sharp somewhere, though in a perfect world the forecast would be a little smoother. We'll see how the midnight shift does tonight lol. 

3 hours ago, dta1984 said:

@OHweather with another awesome short term write up today.   Enjoying the format! 

With the exception of the Canadian runs, all others are pretty favorable for us still.  Hoping we don't melt too much tomorrow-weds.   

Thanks! I hope people read what they needed too and didn't just go "ah it's too long" lol, but in the future I may try to consolidate them a little better. Suspect the pack won't melt much...it'll just shrink a bit and then freeze solid as colder air comes back in Wednesday night. If we do happen to get some sleet or freezing rain up here it will be a ridiculously dense pack after this storm. 

2 hours ago, NEOH said:

Just read his AFD... that was outstanding. Sounds like 12-18" in our area with no mixing. 

Not sure how much will melt tomorrow or Wednesday. As long as we avoid heavy rain (which looks likely) it won't be too bad. We starting off in the low teens tomorrow and temps drop again tomorrow night. With an ice covered lake I'm betting a faster cold front passage along the immediate lakeshore. 

Yeah I agree about the cold frontal passage...given the set-up and icy lake, I don't expect surface temps to run warmer than expected this event. Still not sure about the temperatures aloft. I worry somewhere between Cleveland and Canton sleet bombs (currently think it's Akron and that up into Geauga it's mainly snow with perhaps some sleet at times). The set-up seems to be inching a little more southeast at the moment and as I was getting at, there's plenty of QPF for over a foot of snow in the lakeshore counties and Snowbelt if it trends cold enough to stay all snow. Given how often mixing bites us in the ass in this area on the southern fringe I like the idea of starting a bit conservative with the accumulation forecast but it's possible it comes up.  Someone just south of the heaviest snow may legitimately get several inches of sleet too, which is unusual for around here. 

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