IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Signifcant changes on the Euro as well in the medium range out West. The trough is so much sharper and the pattern is more amplified as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Cherry Bowl of Guidance Take your pick..... 250mb jet is red hot on all major guidance last frame shows the most likely result ATM GFS -PARA for reference sheared or OTS This system is not a snowstorm for the metro guest view why not become a member of the madness?? http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b368/Doorman_/ny-track_zpsai1rvglv.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 At 06z Monday the trailing Pacific energy went from near Seattle to central Idaho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Sub 1000mb to West Virginia. Cold air hanging tough well N&W. Definitly some freezing rain concerns on this run well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Hr 150 low south of Pitt...cold air pressing down...looks okay for mass-north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Ends up over PA and we likely dry slot by Monday night. It's too bad that we don't really have anything that would force redevelopment off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Hr 150 low south of Pitt...cold air pressing down...looks okay for mass-north The mid-levels are pretty warm. It's likely ZR/IP until you get into VT/NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The mid-levels are pretty warm. It's likely ZR/IP until you get into VT/NH. They would get a decent front end dump... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 SV maps have a few inches of snow once you get well North of the city. Maybe a coating-2" for anyone south of the NYS Thruway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 They would get a decent front end dump... Agreed, probably about 6 hours or so of moderate-heavy snow before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The freezer comes in just in time for New Years. We really need something to split the PV so that we can get more polar interaction with these systems. Just simply not enough available cold air at game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 After the storm the Pv drops down to suppress everything and we are cold/dry lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Latest 12Z GFSx has an anomaly of +10.4degs. almost a degree lower than previous run---but still no below normal low temperature indicated, just a 38 instead of 40 deg. high next Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I don't know, so much flip flopping in the medium range lately, even on the Euro and GFS. I somehow doubt that this ends up verifying even close to what is currently being depicted. If I had to take I guess I would say that a sheared out wave probably makes more sense given the trailing Pacific energy and the amplfying SE ridge. That's not necessarily a bad thing if all you're looking for is a few inches of snow. Not much room for error with regards to track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Verbatim the euro keeps us in the teens NYE and NYD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 You can see the differences here on the Euro from last night at H5. 12z. 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I don't know, so much flip flopping in the medium range lately, even on the Euro and GFS. I somehow doubt that this ends up verifying even close to what is currently being depicted. If I had to take I guess I would say that a sheared out wave probably makes more sense given the trailing Pacific energy and the amplfying SE ridge. That's not necessarily a bad thing if all you're looking for is a few inches of snow. Not much room for error with regards to track though. Euro has been awful the last few weeks..it has given up it's title as the king..now it's bad like every other model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The Euro also got a touch wetter for the rain the next couple days by about 1/3 of an inch. The system on the 29th is like 0.80" +/- 0.10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro has been awful the last few weeks..it has given up it's title as the king..now it's bad like every other model None of the modeling has been very good lately. Needless to say my confidence is rather low, but we have a bit more room for error in this setup because we're not relying on a deformation band from a coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Latest 12Z GFSx has an anomaly of +10.4degs. almost a degree lower than previous run---but still no below normal low temperature indicated, just a 38 instead of 40 deg. high next Tues. The GFSx is garbage along with the CFS..try to use other models to prove your point.nobody here takes the GFSx seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Almost every CIPS analog over the SE at 120 hours had freezing rain in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Almost every CIPS analog over the SE at 120 hours had freezing rain in the area. Thats a sneaky high...at quick glance that looks like a rain event all areas on the 12Z Euro taking the Op solution verbatim but thats the kind of event that trends colder as we get closer...also consider this year the tendency has been weaker not stronger systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The 12z EPS mean supports the OP well for the system around the 29th. The mean tracks the primary low right to northern West Virginia just like the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 We are 6 days out your R/S line could be 195 in CNJ or the Mass Tpke . Too early . The Euro does secondary here . The control is just great from NWNJ through the LHV Central CT and points N . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z gfs is 4-8 for Monday and PArA has nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z gfs is 4-8 for Monday and PArA has nothingNew Year's Eve system is quite a dumping for parts of Texas (on the parallel). Old school GFS has some snow here with more for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Thats a sneaky high...at quick glance that looks like a rain event all areas on the 12Z Euro taking the Op solution verbatim but thats the kind of event that trends colder as we get closer...also consider this year the tendency has been weaker not stronger systems.the sfc tends to trend colder but the mid levels don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 GFS is way south compared to the 18z GFS run for Sunday lol. GFS has a different solution every time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Next week looks really active and cold on the GFS. GFS cooks up something for midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Probably the first white on a map for the gem this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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