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December Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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Cherry Bowl of Guidance

Take your pick.....

 

250mb jet is red hot on all major guidance

last frame shows the most likely result  ATM

GFS -PARA for reference

 

sheared or OTS 

 

This system is not a snowstorm for the metro

 

guest view

why not become a member of the madness??

 

http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b368/Doorman_/ny-track_zpsai1rvglv.gif

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I don't know, so much flip flopping in the medium range lately, even on the Euro and GFS. I somehow doubt that this ends up verifying even close to what is currently being depicted.

 

If I had to take I guess I would say that a sheared out wave probably makes more sense given the trailing Pacific energy and the amplfying SE ridge. That's not necessarily a bad thing if all you're looking for is a few inches of snow. Not much room for error with regards to track though.

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I don't know, so much flip flopping in the medium range lately, even on the Euro and GFS. I somehow doubt that this ends up verifying even close to what is currently being depicted.

 

If I had to take I guess I would say that a sheared out wave probably makes more sense given the trailing Pacific energy and the amplfying SE ridge. That's not necessarily a bad thing if all you're looking for is a few inches of snow. Not much room for error with regards to track though.

Euro has been awful the last few weeks..it has given up it's title as the king..now it's bad like every other model

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Euro has been awful the last few weeks..it has given up it's title as the king..now it's bad like every other model

None of the modeling has been very good lately. Needless to say my confidence is rather low, but we have a bit more room for error in this setup because we're not relying on a deformation band from a coastal storm.

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Latest  12Z GFSx has an anomaly of +10.4degs.  almost a degree lower than previous run---but still no below normal low temperature indicated, just a 38 instead of 40 deg. high next Tues.

The GFSx is garbage along with the CFS..try to use other models to prove your point.nobody here takes the GFSx seriously

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Almost every CIPS analog over the SE at 120 hours had freezing rain in the area.

 

Thats a sneaky high...at quick glance that looks like a rain event all areas on the 12Z Euro taking the Op solution verbatim but thats the kind of event that trends colder as we get closer...also consider this year the tendency has been weaker not stronger systems.

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Thats a sneaky high...at quick glance that looks like a rain event all areas on the 12Z Euro taking the Op solution verbatim but thats the kind of event that trends colder as we get closer...also consider this year the tendency has been weaker not stronger systems.

the sfc tends to trend colder but the mid levels don't
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