Nygmen Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 West of JFK and the GSP may fit warning criteria . At only 5 to 1 Minus 2 at 850`s 33- 34 BL with 32 DP on a NE wind may support warning snow Maybe as far east as the Wantagh on Long Island . im assuming then based on the other guys post northern nassau and northwest suffolk should be able to as well with that track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks like allot of Long Island people are going to ask for their towels back. It's still going to be a sloppy storm outside of areas under 800'. What I think will be the big surprise is where ever the best banding and highest rates setup could eek out the hugest totals despite if it's on the coast.just going with the trend the last few years some place like colts neck in the Monmouth snow mountains could be a surprise winner Still gonna need another shift east for me to be back in it. Im in probably the worst place topographically for snow and storms like these with BL issues it doesnt bode well for me. This could be a situation where 10 miles west they get 3-6" and i get nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The NAM is a lot more energetic with the energy down south, looks like it will come West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Pretty wild changes on the NAM at 36 hours regarding the level of amplification. Nothing new for this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 West of JFK and the GSP may fit warning criteria . At only 5 to 1 Minus 2 at 850`s 33- 34 BL with 32 DP on a NE wind may support warning snow Maybe as far east as the Wantagh on Long Island . not impossible but I think a line from Yonkers, NY to Bridgewater,NJ will be the dividing line for warning criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Guess the Nam is about to show a snow bomb. It'll be good entertainment if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Upton is always skiddish to pull the trigger, but it's the busiest travel days of the year and they need to make the call now or face the wrath of Cuomo (again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks a lot like the Euro so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wetter and more expansion to the west. 850s look good, not sure about the surface though. Intense rates if so over 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM is still a tick East of the Euro so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 HR48 is a great look, wow. Too bad its the 18z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Still gonna need another shift east for me to be back in it. Im in probably the worst place topographically for snow and storms like these with BL issues it doesnt bode well for me. This could be a situation where 10 miles west they get 3-6" and i get nothing No offense but that's fine with me as I'm 10 miles west. Generally our weather is almost identical and I think that's the case here. I think we are both good for a sloppy 3-6" on colder surfaces. I think the loser zone is 20 miles east of you in say west Hampton. If wantagh does turn out to be the line it will be north of sunrise I'm sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The NAM is slightly West and more organized than 12z, but still tracks SE of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I give you the Euro ensembles cluster and it`s liquid amounts you give me the NAM . I give you Lou Gehrig and you give me Wally Pipp . The NAM is not used in any of the AFD`s . Stick to what works or you are going to drive yourself insane . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Pretty solid it, not as good as the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I give you the Euro ensembles cluster and it`s liquid amounts you give me the NAM . I give you Lou Gehrig and you give me Wally Pipp . The NAM is not used in any of the AFD`s . Stick to what works or you are going to drive yourself insane . We're now getting under 60 hours where the mesoscale models begin carrying more weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 We're now getting under 60 hours where the mesoscale models begin carrying more weight. RGEM better meso inside 36 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 We're now getting under 60 hours where the mesoscale models begin carrying more weight. Yes more weight, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Mt.Holly expanded WSW to TTN & PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yes more weight, but not much.The point is, it's time to start looking at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yes more weight, but not much. The NAM can even be lost inside 24 hours. Would prefer the RGEM instead in short range and naturally the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Upton has just upgraded NYC metro from >1 In to the 2-4 range! getting more bulish based on today's model runs: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NOAA Point and click at the park Wednesday Rain before 10am, then rain and snow between 10am and noon, then snow after noon. Temperature falling to around 32 by 3pm. Wind chill values between 25 and 35. North wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow, mainly before 11pm. Low around 32. Northwest wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hot off the presses. Uppage from Upton: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 My. Holly is less Bullish, I like uptons map better, although I think it might be a bit too high for central Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Sitting in the 2-5 advisory range, it wont take much for most of the NYC metro to be in the WSW range by this time tomorrow. All in all an incredible start to the winter season, cant ask for more ( though I think there is an outside chance we might get more basedon model trends) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That map hasn't been updated yet with their afternoon numbers. It will show higher totals since they issued WSWs for additional counties. it is upated. Had lehigh valley in 4-6 earlier today and now back to their 6-8 inches and the 2-4 and 1-2 was expanded slightly south east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 More than half of the Euro ensemble members are 10"+ for KEWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.