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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!

BuffaloWeather

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Syrmax

Syrmax

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Not much to talk about. Flurries today reminding us its actually winter.  Bare ground...looks like we got our pattern change finally, and its not being productive this time around...trough anchored over central CONUS, sometimes with a + tilt and a +NAO keeping things moving along.  The northeast has managed to make out ok with similar patterns in previous winters, but maybe not this time around.  LES looks mostly dead with only glancing shots of seasonably cold air.  Hopefully this changes moving forward.  

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Here's a couple shots I took of Lake Ontario on the 27th.  It looked and felt more like mid-September than 2 days after Christmas.  It's too bad this turn to colder weather isn't favorable for at least any significant lake effect.  Lots of winter to go though...

 

attachicon.gifIMG_0025.JPG

 

attachicon.gifIMG_0048.JPG

 

Some awesome pics Bumble. Thanks for sharing. LES looks good for the Tug and a storm system that looks impossible to forecast after that.

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swva

swva

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d13_fill.gif?1419907177914

Foot+ when all is done.

I'm still up in Redfield until Saturday. Just issued LES watch. Im just south of the reservoir. More south Redfield. This setups can be tricky. Sometimes north Redfield gets 2' and we get a few inches. Hope it works out this time. Will keep you posted.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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I'm still up in Redfield until Saturday. Just issued LES watch. Im just south of the reservoir. More south Redfield. This setups can be tricky. Sometimes north Redfield gets 2' and we get a few inches. Hope it works out this time. Will keep you posted.

 

Yeah, definitely keep us updated. Looks like Redfield would be a good spot for this one.

 

It's snowing haha. Sorry got excited lol.

 

It's been far to long this month without snow, that's for sure.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Rev do you ride on the Tug or close to home? Looking really good this week into the weekend for the Tug. I can see 1-2 feet by Sunday easily.

 

 

Right on the money. :pimp:

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGHFRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGHFRIDAY AFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES.* TIMING...LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 1 TO 2 FEET  IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH PRODUCING  SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.* IMPACTS...NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING  SNOW MAY PRODUCE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH VERY POOR  VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THIS INCLUDES THE INTERSTATE  81 CORRIDOR.* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE  EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.
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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

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Right on the money. :pimp:

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 1 TO 2 FEET
  IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH PRODUCING
  SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* IMPACTS...NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING
  SNOW MAY PRODUCE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH VERY POOR
  VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THIS INCLUDES THE INTERSTATE
  81 CORRIDOR.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
  EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.
Hmmmm, road trip to the Tug? ;)
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Syrmax

Syrmax

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an unexpected 2-1/4" last night...lake effect powder, 0.07" liquid.  32:1 ratio.  Broom or leaf blower is all you need to clear it!  First snow on ground since about the 23rd.  It'll have to do as the lake effect warning is up to the north, the Tug Hill as usual, followed by another disgusting cutter storm featuring ground clearing rain.  This appears to be our lot in life this winter.  I should have done a better job cleaning up the flower beds of weeds this fall, since I'll apparently be looking at them until April. 

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Syrmax

Syrmax

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Hey Ayuud did you see the 0Z NAM Hi-res? Looks pretty solid for the Metro. Maybe 2-4 inches on New Years Eve/Day? Going to be really windy too.

 

SGy0iCa.png

Check out the snow totals north of lake superior in Ontario...is that Lake Effect on SW flow?  Or synoptic...it has the look of a lake effect distribution.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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All good. I was mainly just joking around since I haven't seen a flake in over a month down here. I'm attending the National AMS conference starting with travel on Friday, so I wouldn't have much time myself. Enjoy the New Year!! 

 

That sounds awesome. How long until you are a certified Met? Do you have to pass a certification exam or just pass the 4 year program? You have a great new year as well!

 

I'll keep you posted from Redfield. Feeling pretty good about this one. You guys can live vicariously through me. Usually its the other way around.

 

Yeah, definitely keep us posted with some videos/pictures. Should be a solid event in that area. 2+ inches per hour with totals over 2 feet likely by the end of this event.

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

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Posted

That sounds awesome. How long until you are a certified Met? Do you have to pass a certification exam or just pass the 4 year program? You have a great new year as well.

Thanks Buffalo. I have one semester left at Millersville, then I get my degree. I just have to pass the 4 year program to become certified. No certification exams here. We have enough for all our classes :). Will be awesome to get a red tag this upcoming summer. A lot of hard work, studying and dedication goes into getting this degree, but I can't imagine doing anything else!!

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted

Hey Ayuud did you see the 0Z NAM Hi-res? Looks pretty solid for the Metro. Maybe 2-4 inches on New Years Eve/Day? Going to be really windy too.

 

SGy0iCa.png

 

LES WATCH UP FOR THE METRO AREA!!

 

 

Off Lake Erie...forecast confidence is a bit lower than off Lake

Ontario...due to relatively lower synoptic moisture in place.

However...forecast model soundings show enough moisture to saturate

the low dendritic growth zone. Lake equilibrium levels come up to

almost 10kft Wednesday night. Expect that despite the lack of

synoptic moisture above about 800 mb...the saturated low-levels with

the low dendritic layer will be sufficient for a Good Lake effect snow

event. The latest high resolution model runs are also catching on to

Strong Lake effect snow band developing off of Lake Erie by late

Wednesday afternoon. In terms of placement...it looks like this band

will set up right through the Buffalo metropolitan area for Wednesday

night...which could prove even more impactful due to the New Year

Holiday. Snow rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour are possible with this

lake effect snow band...with total accumulation 6 to 12 inches

possible. Have issued a lake effect snow watch with this forecast

update.

Winds will pick up Wednesday night...with gusts up to 35 miles per hour at

times. This will bring wind chills to around zero and blowing snow

in and around the lake effect snow bands. 

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

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Posted

Sweet!!  Hopefully this keeps trending in the right direction heading into tomorrow.  

 

Lake Effect Snow Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
103 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2014

NYZ010>012-085-310215-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0011.141231T2000Z-150102T1100Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
103 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN ERIE...GENESEE AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

* TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 6 TO 12 INCHES IN
THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

* WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES

* IMPACTS...NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

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Posted

Strong little meso low about to move in from Lake Ontario: http://www.localsyr.com/livedoppler9/eastern-lake-ontario/

 

Nice start for you swva. 

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 900 PM...RADAR/SATELLITE SHOWED A MESO LOW ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE LATE THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A COUPLE HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
ROUGHLY BETWEEN AND EAST OF A WATERTOWN TO OSWEGO LINE THROUGH 1
AM. AFTER THIS...A LAKE EFFECT BAND IS LIKELY TO FOCUS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO NEAR NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY.

 

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW INCREASING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...

* AT 956 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF
AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR MOVING ONSHORE FROM LAKE ONTARIO FROM
NINE MILE POINT TO WATERTOWN. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE TUG HILL REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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The Tug wins again.  West flow. Bahh Humbug.  I'll have to live vicariously through others again while waiting for the weekend rain. Great winter. #not (Yes. Yes, I'm whining a bit. ;))

 

It's actually a mainly Southwest flow here and W to SW to W flow in the Tug. But yeah, the Tug wins 99.9% of the years over anyone East of the Rockies.

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