ayuud11 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I'm really starting to like this setup for tonight. A nice squall line is taking shape over Ohio. This system definitely reminds me of the January 9, 2008 Derecho event. Which has the record for my highest wind gust ever experienced (~75mph) Was that the one that produced the 95mph gust on top of the HSBC building in downtown buffalo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 I think the GFS hate is a little overstated. I pretty much just peruse the GFS 850's at 0z and 12z everyday and always have a real good ballpark feel for the upcoming weather. People fluff the **** out of the Euro... GFS isnt perfect but it did very well on the December 9th storm. I don't hate it, just prefer the Euro. To each their own I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 Was that the one that produced the 95mph gust on top of the HSBC building in downtown buffalo? This website is awesome for some recent events in Buffalo since 2000. What was the event that produced a 81 mph wind gust at Niagara Falls? I was at my grandmas house at the time with some family, and the lights went out with an insane wind gust that knocked out power all over the area. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotals.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 Euro went full suppression mode in its last suite. Zzz's across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 This website is awesome for some recent events in Buffalo since 2000. What was the event that produced a 81 mph wind gust at Niagara Falls? I was at my grandmas house at the time with some family, and the lights went out with an insane wind gust that knocked out power all over the area. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotals.html It must have been the 1/30/08 event, i found a link that mentioned the 90mph gust over the HSBC tower at the time. http://www.chasingtowers.com/page6.php?article=241&&articleStart=30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 It must have been the 1/30/08 event, i found a link that mentioned the 90mph gust over the HSBC tower at the time. http://www.chasingtowers.com/page6.php?article=241&&articleStart=30 Severe T-storm warning at 10:00 pm on xmas eve followed by a high wind warning with gust to 70 mph. This is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Severe T-storm warning at 10:00 pm on xmas eve followed by a high wind warning with gust to 70 mph. This is awesome! You guys have had some close out to this year. 80" of snow in November followed by a Severe storm on Christmas Eve. Got to love the weather!! Merry Christmas to all in the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 You guys have had some close out to this year. 80" of snow in November followed by a Severe storm on Christmas Eve. Got to love the weather!! Merry Christmas to all in the forum Merry Christmas to you as well! Yeah, the pattern has been dull the last month or so. But we are not allowed to complain here. I mean I just bought new skis and want to hit the slopes, but I am sure that time will come in the next few weeks. Here are the highest November snowfall totals for the area. C39-Hamburg, NY- 89.5" C66- East Aurora, NY- 98.7" C75- Elma Center, NY- 83.2" Bennington, WY- 88" These have to be the highest totals in Nov. in WNY history. Full list is here. http://www.weather.gov/buf/wintersummary1415 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Had a tstorm roll through here about 45 minutes ago, brief downpour with some pretty lightning. Crazy weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 Merry X mas all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 Highest wind gusts from what I could see was 67 MPH in North Tonawanda. Quite a bit of damage though. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/facebook/BUFLSRBUF.1411251657 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Merry Christmas to all. No unusual wind around SYR last night. Maybe it was different in the hills. Looks like patience will be needed coming up...mild followed by cold and dry. Looks like it will be after New Years before anything gets organized. Maybe LES will spark up at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 Some possible weak LES showing up in some models for next week. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIOVALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC WITH A GENERAL COLD WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THEGREAT LAKES. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME LAKE RESPONSE EAST OF THE LAKESDEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 You know It's grim when all we can conjure for late December/early January is some weak lake effect. We are down to totally bare ground here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 You know It's grim when all we can conjure for late December/early January is some weak lake effect. We are down to totally bare ground here. Chance at more possibly. Nice write-up by a local Met in the area. After some almost unseasonably mild weather before and during the Christmas holiday, the pattern will be shifting to a more wintry one for the last few days of December and the first few days of January. The northern branch of the jet stream is going to buckle again, but this time the trough will be “positive” tilt, with the axis running from Quebec to the Great Basin and SW. That will preclude any deep storm system in our region for at least a few days. A somewhat split, separate southerly branch of the jet may carry a vigorous system far to our south and toward the SE/middle Atlantic seaboard with no impact on us. However, as the cold air deepens on New Years Eve, a brisk (and bitter-feeling) WSW flow will set up across the eastern Great Lakes. This means late night revelers should be dressed in their warmest, protective gear for any prolonged exposure, even though temperatures look “merely” cold that night. There will probably be some Lake Effect developing downwind of Lake Erie. Working against it will be early model and ensemble projections of this being a dry air mass. Working in favor of it will be some cyclonic curvature to the flow (the arctic anticyclonic ridge will be Well S & SW of us) and a pretty healthy delta T/low level lapse rate. Lake Erie is currently 3 degrees above average at 39. The lower res global models and ensembles are not very good at picking up all but extreme lake effect this far out in time, so they’re not showing much. I do expect some lake response, possibly significant, by either late New Years Eve or New Years Day, slowly winding down by the weekend. The pattern will then begin to relax, and more seasonable temperatures (not mild, seasonable) will return. Judah Cohen is forecasting the AO to go predominantly negative for much of January, but also says there is uncertainty about the strength and impact of his predicted SSW during the month. Despite the AO showing a general trend toward the negative by the start of the year, the NAO goes positive for a while, so there are mixed signals on that front. But there IS good agreement on this cold period for New Years week, and the WSW flow setting up in the boundary layer, so things may get interesting for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 New Years eve into New Years day looks like best possibility for les in buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Vacationing in Redfield. Just looked at NAM, hi-res NAM and HRRR. Having to look on my phone from NCEP site and not my paid subscriptions. Looked like some lake response Sunday into Monday up here. Wasn't showing up yesterday. Can anyone let me know if I'm seeing this right? And what is best short range model for LES? I'm used to VA weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 New Years eve into New Years day looks like best possibility for les in buffalo. It would've been a nice setup but the airmass is just too dry man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 If it's not going to snow days like today are not such a bad alternative. Upper 40's here with brilliant sunshine. Spectacular day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 Vacationing in Redfield. Just looked at NAM, hi-res NAM and HRRR. Having to look on my phone from NCEP site and not my paid subscriptions. Looked like some lake response Sunday into Monday up here. Wasn't showing up yesterday. Can anyone let me know if I'm seeing this right? And what is best short range model for LES? I'm used to VA weather There is some potential up there from Tuesday-Friday time-frame. Redfield is going to be the best place to be if anything significant does materlize. Hi-res models are usually the best for LES and the majority of them are not within range yet. Buf NWS doesn't seem to high on this at all but shortwaves can sometimes come through and create enough moisture/lift to give some boost to the LES. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD...THE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST...WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC AND SWINGS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TOGETHER...THESE FEATURES WILL CIRCULATE A GENERAL WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH THE MAIN PERIOD OF MORE BACKED FLOW COMING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. WHILE 850 MB TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE FROM AROUND -17C TO -10C AND WILL THUS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE...THE CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT A RELATIVELY LOW CAPPING INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER LAKE ERIE...ALONG WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AT BEST. TOGETHER THESE FACTORS WOULD LIKELY ACT TO INHIBIT MUCH OF A LAKE RESPONSE...AND IN TURN POPS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE HAVE ACCORDINGLY BEEN LOWERED TO BELOW THE CHANCE THRESHOLD RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OFF LAKE ONTARIO SOMEWHAT BETTER AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A HIGHER CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LAKE SNOWS THROUGHOUT...SO HAVE GENERALLY RETAINED MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT AREAS CONDITIONS SHOULD JUST BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD... WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID-UPPER 20S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 It would've been a nice setup but the airmass is just too dry man. The synoptic lift is to far away from us. It gives areas Northeast of Lake Superior a good pounding, if only it was 200-300 miles more south. Would be an epic set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 If it's not going to snow days like today are not such a bad alternative. Upper 40's here with brilliant sunshine. Spectacular day. Completely agree. I worked all day unfortunately, but on my way home was nice to have the window a little bit open on Dec. 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 Quite the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2014 Author Share Posted December 29, 2014 These guys are getting lonely. =( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Not as lonely as my snowmobile, it's brand new with 2 miles on it. 12g's sitting there and can't ride it. Very frustrating for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2014 Author Share Posted December 29, 2014 Not as lonely as my snowmobile, it's brand new with 2 miles on it. 12g's sitting there and can't ride it. Very frustrating for sure. I hear ya man. I am jealous, that thing is a beauty. My in-laws have 2 snowmobiles as well and only had 3-4 days to go out in November from the huge LES event. I am hoping to ride a few times this year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2014 Author Share Posted December 29, 2014 Rev do you ride on the Tug or close to home? Looking really good this week into the weekend for the Tug. I can see 1-2 feet by Sunday easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2014 Author Share Posted December 29, 2014 Only 900 miles apart. Nice upgrade GFS GFS: GFS-PARA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I ride locally and try to get up to the Tug 4-5 times a year. I prefer to ride the Tug but tough getting up there with work and everything. Bring on the snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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