ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 poor warministas last March with their super Nino hype machine in full force Hopefully many learned a good lesson about "the Spring Barrier"...something I learned years ago in ENSO forecasting. Very difficult to forecast ENSO until you are past May and even June most of the time. It's hard enough to forecast it in Aug/Sep...trying to do it prior to well-known barrier in skill is really excessively difficult. Just because it looked like 1997 in April, didn't mean it would keep up. Small sample sizes FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 KBOS 61" KPVD 47" KBDL 63" KORH 85" KSHEEP(Roxbury Crossing, MA) 65" KWFS(Whiteface Mountain, Lake Placid, NY) 225"(Climo is ~200") My winter forecast with reasoning and analysis along with relevant images: http://www.southernconnecticutweather.com/forecasters-discussion/the-2014-2015-southern-connecticut-weather-winter-forecast Had the right idea with being pretty bullish relative to climo and a lot of my reasoning that I laid out in my discussion did verify so in the end I'm pretty happy with it despite the bust on actual numbers(Major kudos to those who went for historical, that is, Steve/Ray/whoever else I'm missing) and being a few weeks too early with the flip(I had it in late December, result was mid January). Overall grade 84/100 -> B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Hopefully many learned a good lesson about "the Spring Barrier"...something I learned years ago in ENSO forecasting. Very difficult to forecast ENSO until you are past May and even June most of the time. It's hard enough to forecast it in Aug/Sep...trying to do it prior to well-known barrier in skill is really excessively difficult. Just because it looked like 1997 in April, didn't mean it would keep up. Small sample sizes FTL. the amount of name scientists that were touting this taught me a lesson. The reason my Super Nino meh title remains is a reminder to me that there is a ton of bad science out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Epic fail by me. Honest question, and not trying to step on anyone's toes. Isn't what has happened even more anomalous without an NAO? Kind of seems like most calls were banking on that feature. Seems like we got to this point in spite of the missing NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Epic fail by me. Honest question, and not trying to step on anyone's toes. Isn't what has happened even more anomalous without an NAO? Kind of seems like most calls were banking on that feature. Seems like we got to this point in spite of the missing NAO Yes. We will never see this again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wow, reading the beginning of this thread is so entertaining...no one had any idea that we were going to get slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nobody giving Kevin love..first page post came closest. Lol pickles..he did the same within a few weeks of snowathon 2010...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.