JoMo Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12z GFS moved a bit north with the Wed system it looks like. The NAM is probably way too far north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12z Euro has come northward from it's 00z run as well. Frozen precip from central MO on south into Arkansas. SE KS as well. Heaviest is still SE of I-44, with NW AR getting the most. It's difficult to discern exactly how much of this would be snow and how much would be other forms of frozen precip. The greatest chance for snow will be in SE KS and SW MO, with more of a mixture possible down into Arkansas and Oklahoma, where currently the heaviest precip resides. Precip moves in Wed morning, after temps across our area have fallen below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Bleh when is this for JoMo? Tuesday night into wednesday morning? Freezing rain and sleet I take it for here right now? We got a good amount of it last night man! Everything was solid ice but its all just about melted off now except the grassy areas which is under an inch of slush too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12z Euro has come northward from it's 00z run as well. Frozen precip from central MO on south into Arkansas. SE KS as well. Heaviest is still SE of I-44, with NW AR getting the most. It's difficult to discern exactly how much of this would be snow and how much would be other forms of frozen precip. The greatest chance for snow will be in SE KS and SW MO, with more of a mixture possible down into Arkansas and Oklahoma, where currently the heaviest precip resides. Precip moves in Wed morning, after temps across our area have fallen below freezing. Thanks for the update Jomo. How heavy does the Euro look with precip down in central OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 For NW AR, it would be late Tues night/Wed morning into Wed afternoon, not sure about type yet but the Euro is generating a lot of precip. Hard to tell exactly how much because they are so tightly packed together, but probably between 0.7-0.9" or so this run. For Central OK, it would be late Tues night. Precip isn't that heavy (0.2-0.3") and at this time, 850 MB temps would be close, so it may be a mixed bag as well. Better chances for precip are just off to your east and southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Woke up to my snow and ice turning into a mess.. a few tree limbs fail to the ground ... with temps going above frz. Just checked my forecast and seen a chance of snow again Wed and had to iinvestigate.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 UKMET must have a better precip type algorithm. It has 5" of snowfall for Joplin with 0.9" of precip and 5" of snowfall with 1" of precip in Springfield.....and the snow barely gets down into NE OK and far NW AR. So there is probably quite a mix down that way. 12z Euro ensembles are still all over the place in placement and vary greatly with amounts. The mean still has the most frozen precip across Arkansas somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 18z NAM looks fun... too bad it's so far off.... "Snow": Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 That looks nasty down here.. I really dont need more sleet or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Springfield AFD: Heading into Wednesday, the cold front will slow to our south, as a strong mid and upper level jet strengthens and backbuilds from theGreat Lakes into the Central Plains. Right now, there remains afair amount of uncertainty as to where exactly the upper jet axiswill develop, with the ECMWF a bit further north than the GFS and SREFmean, with the GFS Ensemble mean and GEM somewhere in between. Theexact location of the right entrance region of said jet will be keyto snow potential for Wednesday, with a fairly intense band of snowexpected to develop where the jet circulation combines with an areaof low level frontogenesis. Right now, it`s not clear whether thiswill happen across our CWA (south of I-44 would be most prone) orwhether the band will remain south of the entire forecast area.Have hedged a bit toward a more southerly solution, given thetendency of model guidance to underestimate the speed and magnitudeof strong cold air advection, and thus placing the low levelbaroclinic zone too far north. The more northerly solutioncertainly can`t be discounted, however, and this bears closewatching over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Slow northward nudges on the 18z GFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 18z NAM looks fun... too bad it's so far off.... "Snow": This is the point where we usually say, "go home, NAM, you're drunk". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 As promised, pics. If you have and are signed in to imgur you can go fullscreen to see these at full rez. These are from our storm the other day, and as you can see the freezing rain had already compacted most of this down by time I got out there! It was beautiful and peaceful though. Hope you all enjoy them as much as I did taking them, minus getting soaked from the zr lol. http://imgur.com/a/nCUrp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 As promised, pics. If you have and are signed in to imgur you can go fullscreen to see these at full rez. These are from our storm the other day, and as you can see the freezing rain had already compacted most of this down by time I got out there! It was beautiful and peaceful though. Hope you all enjoy them as much as I did taking them, minus getting soaked from the zr lol. http://imgur.com/a/nCUrp Very nice pictures! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm hoping the cold air pushes a little faster than the models have it today. I'd hade for our last possible winter storm to be an ice or sleet mess down here. As of right now though I think my location has met climo for snow totals after doing a little rough adding. I'll have to wait for official amounts to compare but I think one more storm would make it a lock. Not bad considering how we started the winter off. Kind of sad that meteorological spring started today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Very nice pictures! Thank You, Im still learning this beast of a camera. Im so use to older point and shoots so this is a fun learning hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Nice pics. The models have come in a bit drier tonight it looks like. The positioning on the 00z Euro isn't much different from the 12z, just less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Thanks JoMo! Hopefully we can get one more round before the season ends, looks like to be zr and a sleet slop bag here though if it happens lol. Man this area gets a ton of sleet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Thanks JoMo! Hopefully we can get one more round before the season ends, looks like to be zr and a sleet slop bag here though if it happens lol. Man this area gets a ton of sleet!! We have our years and different trends. Seemed like from 1999-2009 it was mostly ice every year with a couple of snowy ones sprinkled in, then snow for 2 or three years and now we can't get away from the sleet garbage. Just part of living around here I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On the 06z gfs it is putting down a nice 6 inch plus band from me up and over through Fayetteville and NWA. Probably be 2.5 inches of sleet instead but it looks significant at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z GFS with the NW AR, SW MO fun. This is about 3" for Joplin, 6" Monett, 6-7" for Benton county, AR, 3-4" for F'ville. A bit of a jump north from the 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Today's 12z run of the Euro has pulled everything to the east. Light frozen precip from Joplin and to the south and east with the most being in eastern parts of our area and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Light frozen precip JoMo ?/ Does that mean ice or snow sir for you and I here in Joplin so far ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Today's 12z run of the Euro has pulled everything to the east. Light frozen precip from Joplin and to the south and east with the most being in eastern parts of our area and points east. Shocker? NOPE lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 We have to remember that not every storm is going to be direct hit. I was personally hoping for some thunder and heavy rain to wash away the cruddy dirty snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Going to be a tough call on precip amounts/type because this system is very dependent on a lot of things with a high bust potential. The 12z UKMET has a general 2-4" across much of the area with more to our northeast. 12z Euro ensemble still varies a bit when it comes to our area, but it appears the best chance for frozen is along and SE of I-44 for accumulating frozen precip. The greatest chance/highest amounts will be over north central to northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NWS Tulsa issuing a WS Watch for NW Ark shortly. May need to expand it west into Eastern OK later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm expecting slop here rain to ice sleet to dusting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I love how consistently inconsistent the NAM is...... Even the 18z GFS is having issues with amounts, but it stayed pretty steady overall on northern extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Winter storm watches flying, tulsa already mentioning 5" or more and freezing rain as well as sleet. This could be interesting? We will find out huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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