jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Probably means nothing either way, but neither the GFS or NAM have any decent handle on the activity in Illinois right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 nothing matters until later this afternoon....those are all forecasts made early this morning based on 00z data.... relax That was my thought. . Forgot those are pretty much recorded. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 So if I have 0.5 QPF over my area what does that mean for accumulating snowfall? I'm still trying to learn how this works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 looks like gfs held serve.... maybe a tad drier??yeo. Gfs is 5-6" for CMH east. Kinda throws a wrench in updating my map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS TOTALS CMH .61 ZZV .63 VTA .62 CVG 1.01 UNI .89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 So if I have 0.5 QPF over my area what does that mean for accumulating snowfall? I'm still trying to learn how this works. Typically in this kind of set up--- 10-1 ratios--- though if the warm air mix's it could cut down to 8 or 9 to 1. .5 @ 10-1 is 5 inches If the thermal profile were to be colder you can get 20-1, sometimes 25-1; which I don't see for this event, btw.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I doubt the euro will change much. Basically we are at radar and SR model time. RAP and HRRR have flakes starting between 1 and 2am, (franklin county) My bet is ILN keeps mix wording for south of i-70.... extends warnings to include us and goes with 5-8". I think 6-10" is doable here.... 10" if precip rates are better then models indicate (not unlikely with these overrunning set ups). I think axis of heaviest probably is a line from cincy to athens where they could see 8-12", south of that more mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NWS justed bumped me from 3-5 to 4-6 and still advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If you want to complain about Wilmington, RLX has me down for 1-3" and an advisory. We could easily double to high end of that and more if the 12z cooler trend is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If you want to complain about Wilmington, RLX has me down for 1-3" and an advisory. We could easily double to high end of that and more if the 12z cooler trend is correct i'm feeling good about my call for you guys scoring along the axis of heaviest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I doubt the euro will change much. Basically we are at radar and SR model time. RAP and HRRR have flakes starting between 1 and 2am, (franklin county) My bet is ILN keeps mix wording for south of i-70.... extends warnings to include us and goes with 5-8". I think 6-10" is doable here.... 10" if precip rates are better then models indicate (not unlikely with these overrunning set ups). I think axis of heaviest probably is a line from cincy to athens where they could see 8-12", south of that more mixing. So I take it you are going NAM thermals over GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 So I take it you are going NAM thermals over GFS? yes, i think warming is overdone. I have a hard time believing a thump of snow arrives at 2 am in the morning, (earlier for southern areas).... goes all night, thru the morning and then changes to rain...especially with a weakening low. If this was a classic OV runner, with a sub 1000 low....totally different story. This has end as drizzle, written all over it as worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 yes, i think warming is overdone. I have a hard time believing a thump of snow arrives at 2 am in the morning, (earlier for southern areas).... goes all night, thru the morning and then changes to rain...especially with a weakening low. If this was a classic OV runner, with a sub 1000 low....totally different story. This has end as drizzle, written all over it as worst case scenario. I'm more concerned about the upper level warm push than the surface. See, I feel like the surface lags behind the models by a few hours but that little nose of warmth could poke in as forecast and give us an icy problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm more concerned about the upper level warm push than the surface. See, I feel like the surface lags behind the models by a few hours but that little nose of warmth could poke in as forecast and give us an icy problem. if we can keep decent rates....that nose will have a tougher time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Here is my issue with the NAM. Nose of warm air comes in at 09z...then tanks with the same SW wind direction at 12z? Seems odd...Either that nose is forecast too early or it isn't going to go away as fast as the NAM thinks IMO. Maybe it is sensing the higher precip rates though, Buckeye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Here is my issue with the NAM. Nose of warm air comes in at 09z...then tanks with the same SW wind direction at 12z? Seems odd...Either that nose is forecast too early or it isn't going to go away as fast as the NAM thinks IMO. Maybe it is sensing the higher precip rates though, Buckeye. thats what I thought when I was looping the 850 map. That's some pretty intense precip, especially along the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 euro looks like 5-6 across franklin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 euro looks like 5-6 across franklin... Do you believe they will hoist warnings...or stay at advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 euro looks like 5-6 across franklin...More realistic IMHO & more in line w/ GFS. NAM seems 2 almost always overdue amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Have to wonder with the high dbzs coming up on hour 15 if we can't possibly hear some thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Have to wonder with the high dbzs coming up on hour 15 if we can't possibly hear some thunder Louisville mentioned that in their AM AFD....but they were referencing later today/evening on the southern end of their forecast zone. Certainly a possibility b/c I am looking forward to the snowfall rates around day break tomorrow. The events earlier this week were nice but a lot a pixie dust....not the big fat flakes I am expecting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Have to wonder with the high dbzs coming up on hour 15 if we can't possibly hear some thunder Now that would b awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 euro looks like 5-6 across franklin... Wow. Talk about a spread the wealth Ohio storm. The entire state gets at least 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 More realistic IMHO & more in line w/ GFS. NAM seems 2 almost always overdue amounts. i wonder what the euro was spitting out for Chicago 24 hours out before the 20" SB storm. Pretty sure it was under done. I think the euro usually is in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Do you believe they will hoist warnings...or stay at advisory? Well the LR models have worried me enough that I don't think I'm gonna bump up my totals. I think I'm going to stay with 6-8 across I-70 with heavier amounts south.. tough forecast south due to potential mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 i wonder what the euro was spitting out for Chicago 24 hours out before the 20" SB storm. Pretty sure it was under done. I think the euro usually is in the short term.True. It does seem to be on low end leading up 2 a storm. Last nights Euro was like 7" I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well the LR models have worried me enough that I don't think I'm gonna bump up my totals. I think I'm going to stay with 6-8 across I-70 with heavier amounts south.. tough forecast south due to potential mixing issues as usual....jackpot will be whoever is closest to the changeover with out going over....like the price is right. That zone probably falls somewhere between i-70 and a line from cincy to athens .... I'm favoring the south end of that. regardless, this looks like our biggest of the season, so let's enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well the LR models have worried me enough that I don't think I'm gonna bump up my totals. I think I'm going to stay with 6-8 across I-70 with heavier amounts south.. tough forecast south due to potential mixing issuesI think that is a reasonable call. BTW, Ghanal going w/ 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 i wonder what the euro was spitting out for Chicago 24 hours out before the 20" SB storm. Pretty sure it was under done. I think the euro usually is in the short term. QPF was like 1.2, with the Eurowx ratio map showing like 14". IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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