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Let's talk Winter!


Steve

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So if I have 0.5 QPF over my area what does that mean for accumulating snowfall? I'm still trying to learn how this works.

 

Typically in this kind of set up--- 10-1 ratios--- though if the warm air mix's it could cut down to 8 or 9 to 1.

 

.5 @ 10-1 is 5 inches

 

If the thermal profile were to be colder you can get 20-1, sometimes 25-1; which I don't see for this event, btw....

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I doubt the euro will change much.   Basically we are at radar and SR model time.   RAP and HRRR have flakes starting between 1 and 2am, (franklin county)

 

My bet is ILN keeps mix wording for south of i-70....  extends warnings to include us and goes with 5-8".   

 

I think 6-10" is doable here....  10" if precip rates are better then models indicate (not unlikely with these overrunning set ups).

 

I think axis of heaviest probably  is a line from cincy to athens where they could see 8-12", south of that more mixing.

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I doubt the euro will change much.   Basically we are at radar and SR model time.   RAP and HRRR have flakes starting between 1 and 2am, (franklin county)

 

My bet is ILN keeps mix wording for south of i-70....  extends warnings to include us and goes with 5-8".   

 

I think 6-10" is doable here....  10" if precip rates are better then models indicate (not unlikely with these overrunning set ups).

 

I think axis of heaviest probably  is a line from cincy to athens where they could see 8-12", south of that more mixing.

So I take it you are going NAM thermals over GFS?

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So I take it you are going NAM thermals over GFS?

 

yes, i think warming is overdone.   I have a hard time believing a thump of snow arrives at 2 am in the morning, (earlier for southern areas).... goes all night, thru the morning and then changes to rain...especially with a weakening low.   If this was a classic OV runner, with a sub 1000 low....totally different story.   This has end as drizzle, written all over it as worst case scenario.

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yes, i think warming is overdone.   I have a hard time believing a thump of snow arrives at 2 am in the morning, (earlier for southern areas).... goes all night, thru the morning and then changes to rain...especially with a weakening low.   If this was a classic OV runner, with a sub 1000 low....totally different story.   This has end as drizzle, written all over it as worst case scenario.

I'm more concerned about the upper level warm push than the surface.  See, I feel like the surface lags behind the models by a few hours but that little nose of warmth could poke in as forecast and give us an icy problem.

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Here is my issue with the NAM.  Nose of warm air comes in at 09z...then tanks with the same SW wind direction at 12z?  Seems odd...Either that nose is forecast too early or it isn't going to go away as fast as the NAM thinks IMO.

 

Maybe it is sensing the higher precip rates though, Buckeye.

 

thats what I thought when I was looping the 850 map.  That's some pretty intense precip, especially along the river.  

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Have to wonder with the high dbzs coming up on hour 15 if we can't possibly hear some thunder ;)

 

 

Louisville mentioned that in their AM AFD....but they were referencing later today/evening on the southern end of their forecast zone. Certainly a possibility b/c I am looking forward to the snowfall rates around day break tomorrow. The events earlier this week were nice but a lot a pixie dust....not the big fat flakes I am expecting tomorrow.

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Well the LR models have worried me enough that I don't think I'm gonna bump up my totals. I think I'm going to stay with 6-8 across I-70 with heavier amounts south.. tough forecast south due to potential mixing issues

 

as usual....jackpot will be whoever is closest to the changeover with out going over....like the price is right.    That zone probably falls somewhere between i-70 and a line from cincy to athens ....  I'm favoring the south end of that.

 

regardless, this looks like our biggest of the season, so let's enjoy.

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