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NNE Fall Thread


dryslot

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0.77 since Monday. Considerably less than forecast (widespread 1"-3"), but by no means would I call the storm a bust when it hammered so many other areas.  It just set up a bit differently than the models depicted.  These cutoffs are tricky business, and I've learned many tough lessons that cutoffs are not something you pin your hopes to.

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2.09". Grass is really greening up. A couple 60+ days next week should really bring it back. Pretty sure this is the last time this weekend I'll cut the lawn.

 

I am doing mine next week as well as getting all the red maple leaves sucked up as well, Time for the mowing deck to come off and the blower to go on the John Deere, Need to get my sled fixed as well in preparation for winter

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I am doing mine next week as well as getting all the red maple leaves sucked up as well, Time for the mowing deck to come off and the blower to go on the John Deere, Need to get my sled fixed as well in preparation for winter

 

Still mowing?  It's been 5 weeks since my lawn was mowed, and except for a small patch that benefits from the wood ash leachate off the driveway, it's all remained obediently short.  The recent wind has blown more leaves off the lawn than onto it.

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Still mowing?  It's been 5 weeks since my lawn was mowed, and except for a small patch that benefits from the wood ash leachate off the driveway, it's all remained obediently short.  The recent wind has blown more leaves off the lawn than onto it.

 

No, I had not mowed in 3 weeks but will do it one more time to at least get the leaves up

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There hasn't been much talk about the snow potential for tonight into tomorrow – sounds similar to last weekend's event, although a bit warmer with higher snow levels:

 

AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF

FORECAST AREA AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WITH RADAR SHOWING FIRST LINE

OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOWER ACTIVITY

ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE/CUTOFF LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST

FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY

ACROSS REGION TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW BEING LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST

QUEBEC BY SUNDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG PVA

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP

THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER

CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT

LATER TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO

WITH PRECIPITATION MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT

LEVEL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BELOW

THE 2000 FT LEVEL. BEING OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...SYSTEM WILL HAVE

ONLY MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER SO NOT LOOKING AT

ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY.

 

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE

REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH CYCLONIC

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE

CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SUMMITS.

FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL

BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME

LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE ABOVE AROUND 2500 FT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

 

The snow's been suggested on the GFS and ECMWF for a while; the 850 mbar temperatures aren't super cold, but they're expected to be below freezing with some moisture in the area.  GFS and ECMWF MSL frames below:

 

25OCT14A.jpg

 

25OCT14B.jpg

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GFS_3_2014102512_F168_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

 

 

 

Actually, my wife mentioned that she saw snow at the end of the week when she was checking the local forecast; it's not too surprising given the potential for colder air to come into the area:

  • Friday Night A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
  • Saturday A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED PERIOD TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH WEST TO NW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL GET SOME TERRAIN INFLUENCED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

 

LATE IN THE EXTENDED TOWARDS SATURDAY MODELS BRING DEEP TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN US WITH CUT OFF LOW SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS DIFFER WITH THIS FEATURE AS GFS KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVING EAST IN NORTHERN STREAM...WHILE ECMWF DIGS IT FURTHER SOUTH. ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD GFS SOLUTION BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z RUNS...AND GIVEN THIS TREND PUTTING MORE WEIGHT ON THE GFS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS COME UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. PRECIP TYPE TO START OFF AS RAIN ON FRIDAY THEN AS TEMPERATURES COOL FRIDAY NIGHT CHANGE TO SNOW DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

 

Whatever the case with any sort of potentially larger system, if temperatures are trending toward seasonal normals, it wouldn't be unusual to see some snow in the higher elevations for the start of November.

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