TwcMan Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Saw the videos in the lake-effect thread...insane.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Although highly improbable, could you imagine a storm of that magnitude bearing down on the NYC metro area? It would be absolute bedlam in this forum to say the least. I'm trying to imagine such a scary scenario. Perhaps a strong phased system that's stalled out with the intense ccb band right over us for days on end pouring out 20-1 snow ratios. We would be witnessing weenie heaven and hell at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Although highly improbable, could you imagine a storm of that magnitude bearing down on the NYC metro area? It would be absolute bedlam in this forum to say the least. I'm trying to imagine such a scary scenario. Perhaps a strong phased system that's stalled out with the intense ccb band right over us for days on end pouring out 20-1 snow ratios. We would be witnessing weenie heaven and hell at the same time The closest we came would have been March 2001 had it worked out. Since it was supposed to snow for 3 days with the storm stalling and looping back we could have seen the 2 to 3 feet that was possible and that was with borderline temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 Although highly improbable, could you imagine a storm of that magnitude bearing down on the NYC metro area? It would be absolute bedlam in this forum to say the least. I'm trying to imagine such a scary scenario. Perhaps a strong phased system that's stalled out with the intense ccb band right over us for days on end pouring out 20-1 snow ratios. We would be witnessing weenie heaven and hell at the same time This storm is about as close as I can think of. Obviously it didn't drop insane totals, but the storm basically cut off to our southwest in a perfect position to send a non stop moisture feed into the area. It stalled and basically snowed itself out over us. The higher elevations of NJ received over 30", although I believe officially West Milford had 28.0" and Sussex County airport recoreded 26.5". By me it was about 15" of cement, and less as you got closer to the city. It was the ultimate revenge for the February 5-6 event with most of Central and Southern NJ receiving well under a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Although highly improbable, could you imagine a storm of that magnitude bearing down on the NYC metro area? It would be absolute bedlam in this forum to say the least. I'm trying to imagine such a scary scenario. Perhaps a strong phased system that's stalled out with the intense ccb band right over us for days on end pouring out 20-1 snow ratios. We would be witnessing weenie heaven and hell at the same time I don't think sustained LES-type rates or totals are plausible in a synoptic storm system. Mid-latitude cyclones have a relatively short window to take advantage of the surrounding baroclinicity (of which the conveyor belt structure is borne) before they occlude and the mechanisms for ascent start to dwindle. The ceiling is probably somewhere along the lines of March 1888, and even then, totals maxed out around 50 inches I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 This storm is about as close as I can think of. Obviously it didn't drop insane totals, but the storm basically cut off to our southwest in a perfect position to send a non stop moisture feed into the area. It stalled and basically snowed itself out over us. The higher elevations of NJ received over 30", although I believe officially West Milford had 28.0" and Sussex County airport recoreded 26.5". By me it was about 15" of cement, and less as you got closer to the city. It was the ultimate revenge for the February 5-6 event with most of Central and Southern NJ receiving well under a foot. Still remember Paul Kocin (although busted badly) saying he wouldnt be shocked if people on LI would not be able to get out of their houses in the morning. Was a surreal experience that sadly never transpired to the immediate NYC area on east which may of very well rivaled 96' snowfall totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I don't think sustained LES-type rates or totals are plausible in a synoptic storm system. Mid-latitude cyclones have a relatively short window to take advantage of the surrounding baroclinicity (of which the conveyor belt structure is borne) before they occlude and the mechanisms for ascent start to dwindle. The ceiling is probably somewhere along the lines of March 1888, and even then, totals maxed out around 50 inches I believe. Yeah alot of people like to say when we see 4-6" of rain in storms or from tropical systems 'wow imagine if that was snow'!. But its really not possible to get snow in that sort of scenario that produces those huge rainfall amounts. I think 50" was the max in the Blizzard of 78 as well so that probably is the absolute max we could see in a synoptic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 The closest we came would have been March 2001 had it worked out. Since it was supposed to snow for 3 days with the storm stalling and looping back we could have seen the 2 to 3 feet that was possible and that was with borderline temps. March 2001 was an interesting setup. I'm pretty certain that what went wrong is that the phase occured too late. We would have probably been better off without a phase at all, as the initial low had already gotten going and was in good position, but then as the late phasing occured, a seperate system developed and the baroclinic zone was already too far east for us. I couldn be wrong though, I was in High School back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 Still remember Paul Kocin (although busted badly) saying he wouldnt be shocked if people on LI would not be able to get out of their houses in the morning. Was a surreal experience that sadly never transpired to the immediate NYC area on east which may of very well rivaled 96' snowfall totals I'm not sad about it at all. That's the storm that saved Winter up here, with most of the other big ones going well South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I could see where a couple of monster storms dump over 50" but not just one storm. I think 40-50" is the max as well with one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Our area was forecasted to get 2-3 feet of snow for March 2001. I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the forecast amounts. They closed schools the day before the storm . I ended up with 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 I could see where a couple of monster storms dump over 50" but not just one storm. I think 40-50" is the max as well with one storm. You would have to combine massive over running with a stalled out coastal. And even with good ratios of say 15:1, it's nearly impossible to get more than say 3" water equivlent out of a single event here in Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 Our are was forecasted to get 2-3 feet of snow for March 2001. I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the forecast amounts. They closed schools the day before the storm . I ended up with 5 inches But then you got February 2003 and all of the amazing KU events that have happened since then. Stop crying about it like someone stole your puppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Our are was forecasted to get 2-3 feet of snow for March 2001. I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the forecast amounts. They closed schools the day before the storm . I ended up with 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 It's kind of funny, you look at the maps from 2 days prior to PDII and the setup at H5 looks pretty harmless. We've already seen similar looks so far this season that haven't produced anything. That 50/50 low was probably just enough to slow things down and give that shortwave over the Dakotas room to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 But then you got February 2003 and all of the amazing KU events that have happened since then. Stop crying about it like someone stole your puppy. 12/26/10 made up for that storm big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I remember the forecasts were for 6-12 inches for the Presidents Day storm in 2003. The storm happened a day after my uncle got married. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 I remember the forecasts were for 6-12 inches for the Presidents Day storm in 2003. The storm happened a day after my uncle got married. From what I remember, it was origionally forecasted to be two seperate events, the over running, and then the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I remember the forecasts were for 6-12 inches for the Presidents Day storm in 2003. The storm happened a day after my uncle got married. Initially yes but by Saturday night/Sunday Morning forecast amounts were increased to 12-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 From what I remember, it was origionally forecasted to be two seperate events, the over running, and then the coastal. There were 2 events. Snow started breaking out Saturday in the DC area from the overrunning, with a break I believe before the coastal took over at night and on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 There were 2 events. Snow started breaking out Saturday in the DC area from the overrunning, with a break I believe before the coastal took over at night and on Sunday Oh, well I was in Daytona Beach so I'm just going off what I've heard or read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Yeah alot of people like to say when we see 4-6" of rain in storms or from tropical systems 'wow imagine if that was snow'!. But its really not possible to get snow in that sort of scenario that produces those huge rainfall amounts. I think 50" was the max in the Blizzard of 78 as well so that probably is the absolute max we could see in a synoptic event. I guess in theory a transitioning hurricane could exceed the snowfall amounts of a purely ET system. The October 1804 snowicane yielded reports of 48" in NNE, but given the obvious scarcity of reports, the lukewarm antecedent airmass (melting was rapid and immediate, as I understand), and the lack of incremental measurements to compensate for the quick melting... I think a similar system in the modern era with lower heights over the region would produce some astounding totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Initially yes but by Saturday night/Sunday Morning forecast amounts were increased to 12-20" Yep. One of the best storms that I ever witnessed. I still have the news articles from this storm. I think NYC ended up with 19 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I don't think sustained LES-type rates or totals are plausible in a synoptic storm system. Mid-latitude cyclones have a relatively short window to take advantage of the surrounding baroclinicity (of which the conveyor belt structure is borne) before they occlude and the mechanisms for ascent start to dwindle. The ceiling is probably somewhere along the lines of March 1888, and even then, totals maxed out around 50 inches I believe. March 1888 had 58" in Saratoga. A lot of the totals were probably undermeasured, especially around NYC, since there was no 6-hour measuring requirement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 You would have to combine massive over running with a stalled out coastal. And even with good ratios of say 15:1, it's nearly impossible to get more than say 3" water equivlent out of a single event here in Winter. Didn't the mid atlantic get over 3" QPF during early Feb 2010 and they got pretty much back to back monster snow producers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Didn't the mid atlantic get over 3" QPF Yes. Yes they did receive over three inches of quantitative forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 DC actually got two seperate KU's in early February 2010. One the 5-6th and the other 9th-10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I could see where a couple of monster storms dump over 50" but not just one storm. I think 40-50" is the max as well with one storm. All it takes is 3 inches qpf with temps in the teens. It would be quite the weather anomaly, but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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