buckeye Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Great, as if buckeye wasn't enough. Yea Chicago stole my thunder dammit. But he's correct, it was showing 20+ inches across much of central IN into NW half of Ohio. Alas the 12z lost it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 lol, they do have a good catalog of models and stuff. Pretty graphics too. I'll make to send you some snowfall maps, because I know you love them. agree, the wxbell maps and JB commentary is pure entertainment, and I admit I love looking, but the model stuff is the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I'm pretty confident about winter being colder than normal for us...some possibility of it being really cold. That being said, in terms of snowfall...I just don't know. If we get 35" this winter...it'll seem like a disappointment, despite of course that being a typical pretty good season. I guess my lean would be slightly above normal ATTM. Hopefully November can add some clues to how things may shape up storm track wise, etc etc. I just signed up for WxBell, so we're probably screwed now. But, big snowstorm on the 0z Euro control run for us in about 12 days or so. The ECMWF doesn't go out to 12 days. Now on the other hand, the ECMWF 12z has a relatively cool low pressure in the Ohio Valley at 10 days. I wouldn't think this would be a huge signal for a winter storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 The ECMWF doesn't go out to 12 days. Now on the other hand, the ECMWF 12z has a relatively cool low pressure in the Ohio Valley at 10 days. I wouldn't think this would be a huge signal for a winter storm though. He said control run. It's the operational that is re-run at a lower resolution that's used to base the ensemble run(s) off of. It goes out to 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Looking at how precipitation has been over the Fall so far, I would lean towards above average snowfall somewhere over the Southeastern portion of the sub-forum, and wherever the favored NW flow clippers continuously zip over will probably come in at/above average as well... However, the weather pattern around here the last few weeks has gotten a bit dry so hopefully that is not an indication that continues on into November but it should be monitored. The bust potential is there for just about all of us in the snowfall department though too I think. While last Winter was epic here, a slightly above average snowfall for Winter will seem pretty "meh" for me. Although outside of a few stretches in the 60s and 70s climatology says its pretty hard to rack up back to back epic Winters. I think the real cold, in terms of significant departures from normal, will probably sit over the Central or Eastern Lakes down into the South, Mid-Atlantic, and interior New England. I am wanting to see how things unfold over the next couple of weeks before I finalize my thoughts as I think this is going to be a tough seasonal forecast to make. My gut says good Winter if you are Southeast of a Grand Rapids Mi-Springfield Mo line roughly and probably a "blah, meh" Winter NW of a Superior Wi-Des Moines Ia-Wichita Ks line. We'll see how the storm track runs over the next couple weeks and the associated precipitation totals. And see if the weather turns decidedly warmer right before Thanksgiving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I know some have questioned why I have chosen such cold analogs for this year. First of all I didn't go looking for the cold years, it all started with what I thought the ENSO area would look like, and I decided that this year would be a weak El Nino year. This is what the jet stream would normally look like during the weak El Ninos. Now, I have followed many things during the month of October, but three in particular. #1 was the Snow Advance Index and the thoughts of those in the general Weather Forecasting and Discussion page under the thread And We Begin. #2 was the October Pattern Index which was consistently below normal as the month went on and finished well in negative territory. #3 was the QBO which flipped from positive in April to negative in May and that signal has gotten stronger at the year has gone on. Keep in mind when the QBO is positive the winds in the stratosphere are out of the west which tends to strengthen the Polar Vortex, when it goes negative the winds are out of the east which will weaken the PV. All three of those indices would suggest a negative AO, and all of them are extremely strong suggesting a strong -AO. Regarding the map above, I believe the cold air could be so strong that the northern jet will dip into southern Mo to northern AR causing some phasing of the jets before the southern branch can get to the east coast. In the next hour or two I will post my analog years and answer those that doubt I should use 79/80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 1979/80 is without a doubt IMO the best match for the ENSO region, as we went from cool neutral in 78/79 to a weak Nino in 79/80. That is very similar to what we have seen today comparing 2013/14 to 2014/15. However I was wondering how soon the atmosphere would respond this year to the weak El Nino. If it's slow to respond it could look something like Dec 1979. Now lets look at what Dec 79 through Feb 80 looked like. Notice the extremely warm anomalies over the west. Not to bad right? I think that looks right for this year, including the below normal temps in the NW. Notice that it went from a torch to near normal in most areas. So what did Jan. through March look like? Classic cold signal for the Midwest into the OH Valley. as you can see the last half of the year year was very cold. That's why I have included 79/80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I have settled on my best analog years and created these composite maps based on weighting 58/59 and 76/77 twice, 77/78 and 79/80 once. Long term 1985-2000 Now the Climo 1981 through 2010. Irregardless, this year is setting up to be cold, maybe historically cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Hmmm, Ohio Valley getting a lot of love in pre-season winter forecasts. Find the commonality in these forecasts and that's where you'll usually find the failure. Saving grace will be if Angrysummons goes warm and dry for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Bastardi really hyping the CFS flip to pretty cold air next month and a half from the modiki niño Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Hmmm, Ohio Valley getting a lot of love in pre-season winter forecasts. Find the commonality in these forecasts and that's where you'll usually find the failure. Saving grace will be if Angrysummons goes warm and dry for us. Actually, it's a better forecast for your region than normal. Bask in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Lots of agreement here: http://www.midwestweather.org/2014/10/official-2014-2015-midwest-weather.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 The trend remains normal/below normal temps on average...gonna ride it until that pattern shakes...clippers and LE seem to be fitting the mold this fall somewhat...albeit at higher lattitudes for the clippers for now obv...'13/'14 part 2 ish imo...perhaps a little softer on the crazy frigid stuff and snow totals...fwiw Haven't seen much that would make me change my thoughts in the last 2 weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Winter Outlook 2014-15 for Southeast Lower Michigan - Another Cold Winter? http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2014/11/winter-outlook-2014-15-for-southeast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Winter Outlook 2014-15 for Southeast Lower Michigan - Another Cold Winter? http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2014/11/winter-outlook-2014-15-for-southeast.html Nice forecast Bill. Colder than normal Sorry but I hope you wrong on the snow department and we are more on the PLUS side of normal. Of course it probably will not feel like it compared to last year even if we end up on the PLUS side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Nice forecast Bill. Colder than normal Sorry but I hope you wrong on the snow department and we are more on the PLUS side of normal. Of course it probably will not feel like it compared to last year even if we end up on the PLUS side Isnt that the truth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Winter Outlook 2014-15 for Southeast Lower Michigan - Another Cold Winter? http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2014/11/winter-outlook-2014-15-for-southeast.html 1923-24 is one of the stronger analogs I've seen as of yet teleconnection wise, a weak Nino with a PDO of +1.10 in October also with a generally +PDO for the proceeding year and also following a multi-year neutral ENSO event. 500 mb anomaly November composite for 1923. 500 mb anomaly DJF composite for 1923-24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 1923-24 is one of the stronger analogs I've seen as of yet teleconnection wise, a weak Nino with a PDO of +1.10 in October also with a generally +PDO for the proceeding year and also following a multi-year neutral ENSO event. 500 mb anomaly November composite for 1923. 500 mb anomaly DJF composite for 1923-24. Wish we had some QBO, Snowcover data.. Was at solar min.. The Nov 1923 temp map ( N.Plains blazed ) would give me some pause as well before jumping on that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Wish we had some QBO, Snowcover data.. Was at solar min.. The Nov 1923 temp map ( N.Plains blazed ) would give me some pause as well before jumping on that.. what do u think about the 1932-33 analog angry brought up? Hopefully that its garbage . 1923-24 wasnt a TERRIBLE winter but it wasnt a great one. Temp-wise in this area, Nov was normal, Dec was a full-out torch (4th warmest Dec on record), and Jan-Mar were colder than normal (but not extremely so). Total snowfall at Detroit was 37.7", with a biggest snowstorm of 5.9" & a peak snow depth of 7". Snowcover days were a bit below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I'm betting most will see a decent Winter as long as it isn't compared to last year. Think the smart way to go is cold, but not the prolonged type we saw last year. At any rate, I will be living nw of Negaunee in the Huron Mountains in about 30 days. My house here sold and I have an accepted offer up there. No less than 200" for the past 12 years, so a good Winter I should see! http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/?n=seasonsnowfallmaps feel free to hit the 200" mark before the official start of winter, let alone the start of december....we won't mind!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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