EasternUSWX Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 87/73 at DCA. The pot is boiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 BWI looking nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Is anyone else's AllisonHouse lightning feed not working? Mine hasn't worked in months despite my loading a fresh placefile several times. Have yet to hear back from the vendor too. ?? Have you gone to the AH website and copied and pasted the new url? They changed it about 4 months ago. If your just reloading the placefile that you had to begin with, that won't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 GFS keeps slowing it down, rain ends 4:00am West to 8:00am East on Wednesday, would that have definitive positive implications on tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 ?? Have you gone to the AH website and copied and pasted the new url? They changed it about 4 months ago. If your just reloading the placefile that you had to begin with, that won't work. Problem resolved. They thought my subscription was canceled but kept on billing me -_- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Cape is already near 3K. Bring the boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 GFS keeps slowing it down, rain ends 4:00am West to 8:00am East on Wednesday, would that have definitive positive implications on tomorrow? Has slowed slightly with the 500 low every run lately. Not sure we have enough time to slow it down to optimal but it's looking better unless we see crapvection all day. May be an enhanced tornado threat tomorrow somewhere in the region.. Euro would suggest SE VA area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I'd also think SPC will expand the slight risk zone for tomorrow more. Perhaps not this update though I think there is enough reasoning to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Has slowed slightly with the 500 low every run lately. Not sure we have enough time to slow it down to optimal but it's looking better unless we see crapvection all day. May be an enhanced tornado threat tomorrow somewhere in the region.. Euro would suggest SE VA area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Overall shear not as good further southeast but the sfc low the Euro popped would probably increase low level shear, plus longer time priming etc. May not happen.. a 500 low in that area of the lakes often tries to pop a sfc reflection somewhere locally tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Overall shear not as good further southeast but the sfc low the Euro popped would probably increase low level shear, plus longer time priming etc. May not happen.. a 500 low in that area of the lakes often tries to pop a sfc reflection somewhere locally tho. 95 east day tomorrow for some naders. Today we all have a chance but best chance NE MD/SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Looks like a DC north event today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Would think we have an MD soon, probably within the hour IMO... and will LWX be doing a 18z SPEC sounding today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Would think we have an MD soon, probably within the hour IMO... and will LWX be doing a 18z SPEC sounding today? I asked and they said probably not. EDIT: Will not be doing one. 40% chance on a MESO to the south: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2014/md1366.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 80% chance of WW: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2014/md1367.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Nice they mention hail but we're in the no hail zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 That is frustrating. I'm not sure if that's bad coordination/communication or just a delay in product update. Not the first time there's been a disconnect between graphic and text. Nice they mention hail but we're in the no hail zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 STW up till 8pm... hail to 1.5" and winds to 70mph and an isolated tornado or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 IMHO greatest threat for tor's today will be with local backing along waterfront area's. Increases helicty and lowers LCL's. Edit: For example, winds at Annapolis right now are ESE at 10 kts with 82/74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 IMHO greatest threat for tor's today will be with local backing along waterfront area's. Increases helicty and lowers LCL's And those are pretty common areas for possible spinups too. Will have to watch areas down in Charles Co, St. Mary's etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0418NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1222 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014WS 0418PROBABILITY TABLE:PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : <02%PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 60%PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 10%PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 50%PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 10%PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 80%&&ATTRIBUTE TABLE:MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.5MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26030PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 Not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Environment is weakly capped, and the mid level lapse rates are pretty meh. Wish I was at the Skyline Drive, where terrain would help the updrafts a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 New day 2 did expand west a bit and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 New day 2 did expand west a bit and north. To the I95 corridor basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 To the I95 corridor basicallyI think it will ultimately back to the Blue Ridge given current guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 I think it will ultimately back to the Blue Ridge given current guidance. I agree. If current guidance holds, that is. Tomorrow might be a day where right around DC locally is the firing zone and stuff really cranks east. We will see. 12z NAM held some good winds at 500mb, 700mb and 850mb into the afternoon. Earlier runs really looked paltry with winds aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 DC Split already showing up on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 DC Split already showing up on radar. Not really, storms near Luray VA are on the proper heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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