user13 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 is this guy your advisor ? adviser* ...but that dude is probably smarter than most financial advisers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 New WPC numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 A cell just popped near Lancaster and seems to be blowing up fairly rapidly. This is the area that the HRRR has been focusing on for the activity that comes through around 4-5PM. that cell is not doing much at all the last hour radar still a disorganized mess at 2:15 the severe will be toward the end of the watch time which ends at 8 PM in the metro http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The Euro is actually faster now than the GFS for Wednesday clearing most of us out before noon. Before that it's deluge city with a broad brush 2.5-3.5" of rain. The gfs is done by 18z so basically the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The gfs is done by 18z so basically the same To me it looked like the GFS was about 3-6 hours slower than the Euro but it's just semantics. Looks like mid-morning is a good guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 This is frustrating we just need a little more sun and everything would be in place today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 This is frustrating we just need a little more sun and everything would be in place today Yeah I don't think we're lacking in instability at this time, I think it's just that everything seems to be lagging a bit west. The good shear axis is still well west of most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 This is frustrating we just need a little more sun and everything would be in place today This is just popcorn variety storms right now. In a couple hours we'll be rocking! Regardless these storms will be producing deluges in very small periods of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Something just popped now south of Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Yeah I don't think we're lacking in instability at this time, I think it's just that everything seems to be lagging a bit west. The good shear axis is still well west of most of the region. Yea I would like to see CAPE get closer to 2000 around the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Something just popped now south of Trenton. a link please ??- never mind I will post it again for you http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Looks like activity is really starting to finally pick up, although nothing looks overlly intense at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 the best parameters are modeled to be in place around 0z. be patient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Not looking great thus far. I feel like there are going to be some big winners and losers as is usual the case with convection. Never really got into any mid day sun here. So instability is less then we would want. I hope it's not a waste of a potentially good setup for coastal areas. Severe watches for Nassau should be for the NW corner of the county only. Essentially another climate zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 the best parameters are modeled to be in place around 0z. be patient Yea the sky just completely opened up here in the last 10 min... temp just jumped 3 degrees to 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Looks like activity is really starting to finally pick up, although nothing looks overlly intense at the moment.Action isnt suppose to really take off until 4-5 anyway when the NAM/HRRR said that line should be starting to bear down on NJ and head east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Action isnt suppose to really take off until 4-5 anyway when the NAM/HRRR said that line should be starting to bear down on NJ and head east The latest HRRR keeps your immediate area dry till around 7-8PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 the best parameters are modeled to be in place around 0z. be patient Not having a seabreeze is certainly helping long island. Also best shear and instability isnt suppose to be ideal until 4-6 pm correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The latest HRRR keeps your immediate area dry till around 7-8PM. READ! I said 4-5 PM for NJ and work its way east, jeez open your eyes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 We have our first BINGO near Harrisburg. I've never seen wording like this before. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGPAC043-075-099-141930-/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0111.140714T1845Z-140714T1930Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA245 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...NORTHERN DAUPHIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL LEBANON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...* UNTIL 330 PM EDT* AT 244 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMCAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORMWAS LOCATED NEAR NEW BUFFALO...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...MILLERSBURG...LYKENS...NEWPORT...DUNCANNON...ELIZABETHVILLE...NEWBUFFALO...PENN NATIONAL RACE COURSE...DEHART DAM...FORT INDIANTOWNGAP...LIVERPOOL...WICONISCO...HALIFAX...DAUPHIN...GRATZ...BERRYSBURG...PILLOW AND ENDERS.THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 79 AND 84.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FORYOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OFYOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF THESESTORMS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLYINTO A BASEMENT...OR AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Breaks of sun have been showing up from time to time here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 a link please ??- never mind I will post it again for you http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 We have our first BINGO near Harrisburg. I've never seen wording like this before. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING PAC043-075-099-141930- /O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0111.140714T1845Z-140714T1930Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 245 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN DAUPHIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... WEST CENTRAL LEBANON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 330 PM EDT * AT 244 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW BUFFALO...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MILLERSBURG...LYKENS...NEWPORT...DUNCANNON...ELIZABETHVILLE...NEW BUFFALO...PENN NATIONAL RACE COURSE...DEHART DAM...FORT INDIANTOWN GAP...LIVERPOOL...WICONISCO...HALIFAX...DAUPHIN...GRATZ... BERRYSBURG...PILLOW AND ENDERS. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 79 AND 84. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF THESE STORMS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER... INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS... AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INTO A BASEMENT...OR AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET. Ive seen wording like this before but not very often however. Precursor to later maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Full sun still temp up to 85/74...instability picking up nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 We have our first BINGO near Harrisburg. I've never seen wording like this before. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING PAC043-075-099-141930- /O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0111.140714T1845Z-140714T1930Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 245 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN DAUPHIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... WEST CENTRAL LEBANON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 330 PM EDT * AT 244 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW BUFFALO...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MILLERSBURG...LYKENS...NEWPORT...DUNCANNON...ELIZABETHVILLE...NEW BUFFALO...PENN NATIONAL RACE COURSE...DEHART DAM...FORT INDIANTOWN GAP...LIVERPOOL...WICONISCO...HALIFAX...DAUPHIN...GRATZ... BERRYSBURG...PILLOW AND ENDERS. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 79 AND 84. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF THESE STORMS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER... INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS... AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INTO A BASEMENT...OR AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET. Decent hook for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 the best parameters are modeled to be in place around 0z. be patient the watch ends around 0Z - if you mean 8 PM or actually midnight ? another severe watch extension possible because they are having difficulty with timing again ? http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 the watch ends around 0Z - if you mean 8 PM or actually midnight ? another severe watch extension possible because they are having difficulty with timing again ? the Z refers to zulu time - that is never local time. 0z is a reference to 0000 UTC. That's 8pm EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 7.8" bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 7.8" bullseye hrrr_t_precip_nyc_15.png lol...how does the cluster look on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 lol...how does the cluster look on this run? Honestly a bit meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.