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Significant SVR risk 7/14 or 7/15


Mikehobbyst

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storm in EPA just went severe.

 

Supercell might be dropping golf-ball sized hail:

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

343 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 341 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THE STORM WAS NEAR SKIPPACK...MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE

HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

LANSDALE AND HATFIELD AROUND 355 PM EDT...

FRICKS AROUND 400 PM EDT...

CHALFONT AROUND 405 PM EDT...

DUBLIN AND HATBORO AROUND 410 PM EDT...

DOYLESTOWN AND ROBESONIA AROUND 415 PM EDT...

GARDENVILLE AROUND 420 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WINDS OF MORE THAN 57 MPH...OR HAIL ONE

INCH OR LARGER.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...WHICH

COULD FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS QUICKLY AND COVER ROADS WITH WATER. DO

NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT MONDAY

EVENING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY AND

EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

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Each consecutive run of the HRRR has become more and more meh. As you can see the line it had moving through between 3 and 5PM was nothing but fantasy.

that was obvious as I mentioned around noon - what is also becoming obvious is the Severe Watch might have to be extended past 8PM because of poor timing by NWS- not 100% sure yet though

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Great inconsistency by the HRRR - wasn't even close - I think we can ignore this model the rest of the way regarding details

It was good for a few runs in a row and then around the 13z run it crapped the bed. I never thought activity would be so sparse that some areas might stay dry today. Never in a million years. The 12z Euro today had widespread convection before 00z.

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Do people still not realize some areas can pick up a quick couple of inches literally in minutes? Also do people not realize that modeled QPF amounts and convection do not mix?

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Do people still not realize some areas can pick up a quick couple of inches literally in minutes? Also do people not realize that modeled QPF amounts and convection do not mix?

Part of the freakout, at least from my end was that the upstream radar wasn't looking that good until the last few frames. I guess I just expected a total washout deluge given what the models were showing.

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Do people still not realize some areas can pick up a quick couple of inches literally in minutes? Also do people not realize that modeled QPF amounts and convection do not mix?

 

Quoted for Yanks, who, quite fittingly, is getting the ol' 7-10 spliteroo by the storms.

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Ff warning for monmouth. .

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

428 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LONG BRANCH...ASBURY PARK...SANDY

HOOK...

NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

VERY HEAVY RAIN STRETCHING ALONG THE ENTIRE BORDER BETWEEN OCEAN

AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES. OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN EXTIMATED SO

FAR. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS ON THE WAY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PLEASANT

PLAINS...MANTOLOKING...MANASQUAN...LEISURE VILLAGE...LAKEWOOD...

LAKEHURST...CEDAR GLEN LAKES...BRICK TOWNSHIP...WOODRUFF...

WHITING...POINT PLEASANT BEACH AND JACKSON

post-694-0-20385500-1405370072_thumb.png

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Part of the freakout, at least from my end was that the upstream radar wasn't looking that good until the last few frames. I guess I just expected a total washout deluge given what the models were showing.

Things most definitely will ramp up more later, but I agree that I would have thought there'd be bigger storms than there are now.....also a bit more numerous. (Though the one near Reading does look to pack a punch with a nice bow echo) But given the hype for this event, the outcome for many of us would be less than favorable

Sent from my iPhone

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