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Significant SVR risk 7/14 or 7/15


Mikehobbyst

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A cell just popped near Lancaster and seems to be blowing up fairly rapidly. This is the area that the HRRR has been focusing on for the activity that comes through around 4-5PM.

that cell is not doing much at all the last hour radar still a disorganized mess at 2:15 the severe will be toward the end of the watch time which ends at 8 PM in the metro

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

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Yeah I don't think we're lacking in instability at this time, I think it's just that everything seems to be lagging a bit west. The good shear axis is still well west of most of the region.

 

 

 

Yea I would like to see CAPE get closer to 2000 around the area

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Not looking great thus far. I feel like there are going to be some big winners and losers as is usual the case with convection. Never really got into any mid day sun here. So instability is less then we would want. I hope it's not a waste of a potentially good setup for coastal areas. Severe watches for Nassau should be for the NW corner of the county only. Essentially another climate zone

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We have our first BINGO near Harrisburg. I've never seen wording like this before.

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC043-075-099-141930-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0111.140714T1845Z-140714T1930Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
245 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN DAUPHIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
WEST CENTRAL LEBANON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 244 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW BUFFALO...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MILLERSBURG...LYKENS...NEWPORT...DUNCANNON...ELIZABETHVILLE...NEW
BUFFALO...PENN NATIONAL RACE COURSE...DEHART DAM...FORT INDIANTOWN
GAP...LIVERPOOL...WICONISCO...HALIFAX...DAUPHIN...GRATZ...
BERRYSBURG...PILLOW AND ENDERS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 79 AND 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF THESE
STORMS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER...
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...
AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.
MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INTO A BASEMENT...OR AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.

 

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We have our first BINGO near Harrisburg. I've never seen wording like this before.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

PAC043-075-099-141930-

/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0111.140714T1845Z-140714T1930Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

245 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN DAUPHIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

WEST CENTRAL LEBANON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 244 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM

WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW BUFFALO...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MILLERSBURG...LYKENS...NEWPORT...DUNCANNON...ELIZABETHVILLE...NEW

BUFFALO...PENN NATIONAL RACE COURSE...DEHART DAM...FORT INDIANTOWN

GAP...LIVERPOOL...WICONISCO...HALIFAX...DAUPHIN...GRATZ...

BERRYSBURG...PILLOW AND ENDERS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 79 AND 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FOR

YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF

YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF THESE

STORMS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER...

INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...

AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY

INTO A BASEMENT...OR AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.

Ive seen wording like this before but not very often however. Precursor to later maybe?

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We have our first BINGO near Harrisburg. I've never seen wording like this before.

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

PAC043-075-099-141930-

/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0111.140714T1845Z-140714T1930Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

245 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN DAUPHIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

WEST CENTRAL LEBANON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 244 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM

WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW BUFFALO...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MILLERSBURG...LYKENS...NEWPORT...DUNCANNON...ELIZABETHVILLE...NEW

BUFFALO...PENN NATIONAL RACE COURSE...DEHART DAM...FORT INDIANTOWN

GAP...LIVERPOOL...WICONISCO...HALIFAX...DAUPHIN...GRATZ...

BERRYSBURG...PILLOW AND ENDERS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 79 AND 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FOR

YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF

YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF THESE

STORMS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER...

INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...

AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY

INTO A BASEMENT...OR AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.

 

 

Decent hook for sure.

post-2560-0-95925000-1405364345_thumb.pn

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the best parameters are modeled to be in place around 0z. be patient

the watch ends around 0Z - if you mean 8 PM or actually midnight ? another severe watch extension possible because they are having difficulty with timing again ?

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

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the watch ends around 0Z - if you mean 8 PM or actually midnight ? another severe watch extension possible because they are having difficulty with timing again ?

the Z refers to zulu time - that is never local time. 0z is a reference to 0000 UTC. That's 8pm EDT. 

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