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famartin

Medium/Long Range thread

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First day on the job the new GFS gives a SECS digital snowstorm to the area day 9. Funny

The New GFS is not "New".... It just shows you what would have happened without all the "Heat Island Effects"  "Warming Oceans"  Etc. Etc. 

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Pattern setting up in about 8-14 days is just sick! Huge -epo, +pna, -ao, -nao (based off of eps and support from GFS ens).

 

Might we finally be entering a period of stormy and cold weather?

 

It's KU time!

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Pattern setting up in about 8-14 days is just sick! Huge -epo, +pna, -ao, -nao (based off of eps and support from GFS ens).

Might we finally be entering a period of stormy and cold weather?

It's KU time!

.....

Shades of Feb 1983 come early...really thinking we see one or two bud storms 12-18" types to get us at normal for the year that essentially was also winter of 1982-83

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.....

Shades of Feb 1983 come early...really thinking we see one or two bud storms 12-18" types to get us at normal for the year that essentially was also winter of 1982-83

 

I certainly hope you guys are right. The pattern changes seem to be pretty imminent, but we still need well timed energy to cash in. DT had a pretty good write up weighing in on the pattern change in what it could mean. 

 

http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/joestradamus.html

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Pattern setting up in about 8-14 days is just sick! Huge -epo, +pna, -ao, -nao (based off of eps and support from GFS ens).

 

Might we finally be entering a period of stormy and cold weather?

 

It's KU time!

 

Right on schedule, the GFS shows a very favorable storm signal in D8-9 range

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Another time machine digital snowstorm - 12z ECM day 9-10

ECM has gone from a super cutter to a coastal in 24 hrs. Trending towards the GFS and wouldn't be surprised to see it go OTS. Euro has been horrible in the long range.

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ECM has gone from a super cutter to a coastal in 24 hrs. Trending towards the GFS and wouldn't be surprised to see it go OTS. Euro has been horrible in the long range.

We can learn nothing from the ECM beyond 96hrs this winter, unless its consistently shows a cutter since that always seems to be the most stable pattern from suffering major variations.

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I would still advise caution for both the clipper and the storm following it. You can see two outcomes, one we do see snow from both. More likely at this time the clipper brings WAA north as we see rain and the next storm goes OTS. According to what I've seen we lost some of the western spread with the ECMWF ensembles, not necessarily a bad thing as the usual trend is NW with time. OP GFS pattern in the 7-15 day period was for -PNA, +++AO and +NAO, not good. GEFS/ ECMWF ensembles were better through day 10. 

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Just an ugly run on the 12z GFS. Pretty much all threats gone just like that within one run. Let's see what the rest of the 12z suite has to say. Had a feeling this would be just another typical Day 7/8 storm threat that we just cannont get to within short range tracking. Even HM was mentioning shades of Feb 2003 in the Mid Atlantic forum yesterday about the late week storm. Oh well. 

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I am close to cancelling winter

There is a reason all the great fantasy storms are staying 7-10 days away, this winter is a disjointed bad pattern mess with no blocking support. Every now and then we get a tease run showing good times ahead. -NAO is failing us this month and the -AO spike is transient and goes back positive later in the month. Worse case scenario of a January almost as cold as last year but little snow is gaining momentum. We need to depend on clippers for our snow and that is not a good situation. Best hope continues to be a one hit wonder like 1983 or 2006

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There is a reason all the great fantasy storms are staying 7-10 days away, this winter is a disjointed bad pattern mess with no blocking support. Every now and then we get a tease run showing good times ahead. -NAO is failing us this month and the -AO spike is transient and goes back positive later in the month. Worse case scenario of a January almost as cold as last year but little snow is gaining momentum. We need to depend on clippers for our snow and that is not a good situation. Best hope continues to be a one hit wonder like 1983 or 2006

You pretty much nailed it right on the point man. It's just always 7-10 days away. It's like a mirage in the desert. As you get closer to it, it just starts disappearing. 

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12Z euro shows a low tracking from off the Georgia coast at 192hr to the benchmark at 216. Anyone got any better details. I realize it is unlikely to verify but still curious.

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the only reason you see good storms in the long range is becuase they show some time of -ao and or -noa. but as we get close none of that blocking is true. going to be a long and painful winter


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the only reason you see good storms in the long range is becuase they show some time of -ao and or -noa. but as we get close none of that blocking is true. going to be a long and painful winter

 

 

I'm liking the trends lately as far as having a pattern conducive for snow. No way of knowing if it will lead to actual snow, or how much, but things are looking better over the next 2 weeks at least.

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This weekend is sneaking up as more favorable getting the low up the coast. 12z models were closer. If it ejects to fast across south it goes out to sea, to slow and. It comes up coast and then get shoved east. Monday Tuesday chance next week as well.

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