TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Dry air is really putting up a fight against Cristina, allowing for only gradual intensification. The eyewall has closed off again...for the time being...based on the latest microwave pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 There is still a hint of northerly shear on satellite imagery as well... which is probably helping to advect a little of that dry air into the inner core. Still though, its not preventing development as TropicalAnalystwx13 discussed, merely just preventing rapid intensification. That could still change, and its clear the Christina is doing a better job maintaining colder cloud tops today in comparison to the last 48 hours. The storm has also significantly contracted in size, which is characteristic of a TC embedded in a low shear, dry air environment as the deepest moisture becomes focused closer to the core rather than in the outer rainbands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 I love the way the hot tower wraps around the COC towards the end of the loop. Cristina should be a hurricane in no time, if not already. Excellent loop. Its the best one of the Epac this year. Hurricane Rick in 2009 had a similar way to this when it was forming into a hurricane where 2 "hot towers" or deep convection bands were tightly wrapping around the COC. Adv birngs it up to 55 knts. Lots of lighting noted, which is a strong indicator of RI. I think this could be a hurricane tomorrow morning. In order for RI to happen, dry air needs to decrease and CDO needs to become better organized. If that happens it could bomb out IMO. Dry air enter the E side now. CDO looks weird, but it's Cristina's way of keeping it out. Cristina has looked strange for most of her life. In terms of appearance, she has been entertaining. I thought it was unusual for the NHC the mention a little fact bit in a discussion instead of merely just stating frequent lightning was detected in the outer rainbands. It does look like the eye and inner core will finally become stable with much deeper convection near the center today. What hasn't changed from yesterday is Cristina looking better on visible than IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 11, 2014 Author Share Posted June 11, 2014 Cristina has been interesting indeed. Why is dry air such an issue when it's not for most EPAC storms? El Nino (leads to below average rainfall across MX)? Lack of MJO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Given the appearance of a small inner core and the consolidation of a CDO (implying that the dry air has been mixed out), I'd say that all systems are on "go" for RI. Given the faster-than-expected strengthening, with at least two more days of favorable conditions and warm SSTs, I believe that Cristina is well on its way to becoming a major hurricane. A strong hot tower is now developing near the center. Given the tight inner core and the tendency of the models to underdo RI once it occurs, I'm estimating a peak intensity of 125 kt by tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Man that eye is just, so, close, to clearing out. Wonder if all the EPAC storms are going to overperform like this this year. I guess overperform is a relative term compared to your expectations but this looks well on its way to being a solid Cat 2 or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 The 8 PM advisory has Cristina as a Cat 2. Forecast does not take it to major status but I think it will get there. Looking very impressive now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 The 8 PM advisory has Cristina as a Cat 2. Forecast does not take it to major status but I think it will get there. Looking very impressive now. Agree... Only a 10 knot increase in intensity seems on the low side given the pinhole eye that has become obseved surrounded by -70 deg C cloud tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 12, 2014 Author Share Posted June 12, 2014 Agree... Only a 10 knot increase in intensity seems on the low side given the pinhole eye that has become obseved surrounded by -70 deg C cloud tops. Given it's RI'ing, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 I suspect Hurricane Cristina is likely a Category 3 hurricane now and has winds around 105-115 kts based on the impressive small eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 History made again in the Epac: HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014200 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014Cristina is the earliest second major hurricane formation in theeastern Pacific since reliable records began in 1971, eclipsing theformer record of Darby (2010) by 13 days.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 12/0900Z 16.2N 106.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH120H 17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW$$Forecaster Blake It now looks like 115 knots. I think we all knew this was going to RI at some point, just had that touch of it from the start. Deep convection around the symmetrical eye is impressive. I didn't remember that 2010 had the earliest 2nd forming major hurricane and thought it was some record from the early days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 12, 2014 Author Share Posted June 12, 2014 You guys are behind ZCZC MIATCUEP3 ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMHURRICANE CRISTINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014500 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CRISTINA HAS CONTINUEDTO INTENSIFY...AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/H...CATEGORY 4 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ASPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 530 AM PDT...1230 UTC...TO UPDATETHE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR CRISTINA.SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION--------------------------------------------------LOCATION...16.4N 106.8WABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES$$FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG and 000WTPZ43 KNHC 121219TCDEP3HURRICANE CRISTINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014530 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014Cristina has continued to rapidly intensify overnight. Itswell-defined eye is now completely surrounded by cloud tops as coldas -80C, and the current intensity is estimated to be around 125 ktbased mainly on objective ADT guidance. This makes Cristina thesecond category 4 hurricane of the eastern North Pacific season.This special advisory is being issued to update the initialintensity and the intensity forecast during the first 24 hours.The remainder of the forecast remains unchanged from the 0900 UTCadvisory.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 12/1230Z 16.4N 106.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH120H 17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW$$Forecaster Berg NHC nowcasting. HOLY CRAP!!!! 2 EI;ing storms and it's mid-June. Wow. Incredible. The EPAC does it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 This is the first time since reliable records began in 1971 that the EPAC has produced two category 4+ hurricanes before July -- let alone before June 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 I expect a sweet calamity loop before the day is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Given the appearance of a small inner core and the consolidation of a CDO (implying that the dry air has been mixed out), I'd say that all systems are on "go" for RI. Given the faster-than-expected strengthening, with at least two more days of favorable conditions and warm SSTs, I believe that Cristina is well on its way to becoming a major hurricane. A strong hot tower is now developing near the center. Given the tight inner core and the tendency of the models to underdo RI once it occurs, I'm estimating a peak intensity of 125 kt by tomorrow evening. Nice job! *Pats himself on the back* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 12, 2014 Author Share Posted June 12, 2014 ATCF update for 12z keeps it at 125 knts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 The Hurricane expert on the weather channel yesterday around 4 pm showed max winds with Christina being 85 MPH. How can you be that far off within an 15 hour period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 12, 2014 Author Share Posted June 12, 2014 The Hurricane expert on the weather channel yesterday around 4 pm showed max winds with Christina being 85 MPH. How can you be that far off within an 15 hour period? It EI'd overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 We have a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 We have a long way to go. Someone (a meteorologist) once said that any model with such large short-term errors should be dumped and rebuilt from scratch. In this case (as in many previous RI cases) human experience with RI cases trumped the models. I forecasted 125 kt last night based on the intensity trends…not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 I think we've pretty much got the environment required for rapid intensification down. What remains the issue is the degree to which a storm is going to rapidly intensify. Some only barely meet the criteria, intensifying 30kt in 24hr, while some go above and beyond. Amanda and Cristina are examples of that, intensifying 70kt and 65kt in 24 hr, respectively. And I don't know if we'll ever be able to get the degree of RI down in a forecast several days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 FWIW Kerry Emanuel's CHIPS ensembles were almost all forecasting substantial intensification above any of the guidance. They can sometimes be a little overzealous, but probably shouldn't be discounted in cases where RI appears to be a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 I think we've pretty much got the environment required for rapid intensification down. What remains the issue is the degree to which a storm is going to rapidly intensify. Some only barely meet the criteria, intensifying 30kt in 24hr, while some go above and beyond. Amanda and Cristina are examples of that, intensifying 70kt and 65kt in 24 hr, respectively. And I don't know if we'll ever be able to get the degree of RI down in a forecast several days out. What I don't understand is if we have the RI env down, what about this storm surprised forecasters and models alike? Even 24-48 hr beforehand everyone would've scoffed if you said this would peak at near-Cat 5 status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 13, 2014 Author Share Posted June 13, 2014 What I don't understand is if we have the RI env down, what about this storm surprised forecasters and models alike? Even 24-48 hr beforehand everyone would've scoffed if you said this would peak at near-Cat 5 status. I think we all knew it could RI. The question was how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 I think we all knew it could RI. The question was how much. Okay sure, but sometimes the environment seems conducive for RI and it just doesn't happen. Other times it looks marginal for RI and yet it happens. I can't remember how many times I've seen "light shear and warm water" in the past several years. And yet only a handful of storms undergo RI. A lot of it has to do with the internal structure of the cyclone and how quickly an inner core can consolidate and take advantage of the environment. Some basins in some years just have the "it" factor in this regard. Other years it just isn't there. Maybe it's the instability in the basin that tips the scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 What I don't understand is if we have the RI env down, what about this storm surprised forecasters and models alike? Even 24-48 hr beforehand everyone would've scoffed if you said this would peak at near-Cat 5 status. That's exactly what I'm talking about. Most of us knew -- like with Amanda -- that there would be a chance for rapid intensification once the storm developed a solid inner core. Phil even pointed it out several days ago. But at what point would that inner core develop so that RI could begin, and to what degree would the RI occur (25kt? 30kt? 65kt?). That's what we don't know. And I'm not sure we'll ever be able to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 That's exactly what I'm talking about. Most of us knew -- like with Amanda -- that there would be a chance for rapid intensification once the storm developed a solid inner core. Phil even pointed it out several days ago. But at what point would that inner core develop so that RI could begin, and to what degree would the RI occur (25kt? 30kt? 65kt?). That's what we don't know. And I'm not sure we'll ever be able to figure it out. I think it depends on the storm. I remember back in 2008, I was talking to Jack Bevin at the 2008 Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference and he told me that had Hurricane Humberto had another 12 hours over water, it would have likely been a major hurricane landfall near High Island, TX but then would have quickly been sheared heavily. Humberto went from nothing to a 90 mph hurricane in 12-18 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 I wonder when Yellow Even will change the subtitle in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 13, 2014 Author Share Posted June 13, 2014 I wonder when Yellow Even will change the subtitle in this thread Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 13, 2014 Author Share Posted June 13, 2014 Looks like we'll get our next system in next week. We have two waves, that will kinda merge and should be in a very favorable environment. Shear is low, waters are warmer, and we have a Kelvin Wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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