phil882 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 This could be one of those situations where the ECMWF is behind on the convective organization of TD-2E and the more developed GFS solution appears to be more valid. The GFS is suggesting landfall in about 36 hours, which is much faster than the NHC forecast. While there is a mid-level ridge well to the north in Mexico, its displaced too far north of TD-2E to really feel the effects. The system is being steered more by the monsoon-trough which has developed over the Gulf of Mexico and EPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 2E is getting there, but west convection still not ideal IMO. I'd expect landfall tomorrow if not Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 BULLETINTROPICAL STORM BORIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP0220141100 AM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014 ...BORIS POISES A SERIOUS FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE RISK FORMEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...14.7N 94.1WABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* SALINA CRUZ MEXICO TO MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTOA TROPICAL STORM. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST. BORIS ISMOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THISGENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THEFORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BORIS SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST OFMEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTEDBEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. PUERTO CHIAPAS MEXICO HAS ALREADY REPORTED 3.78 INCHES OF RAIN FROMBORIS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE REACHING THE COAST WITHIN THEWARNING AREA NOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL...BORIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 INCHESOF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY...WITHISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 30 INCHES LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUSTERRAIN OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS. BORIS IS ALSOEXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES INGUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENINGFLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY-------------NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$FORECASTER BLAKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 Boris is nearing land as we speak, but it's worth noting that the center is still a bit offshore per the ATCF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 Boris onshore as a TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 The southwestern coastline of Mexico might need to stay on alert, with both the 12z HWRF and ECMWF indicating the development of a hurricane from what appears to be a preexisting area of low pressure within the monsoon trough (which is forecast on the 18z surface analysis to detach). The GFS isn't as optimistic, but shows a well-defined area of vorticity passing just offshore nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 It was in the GFS run as a TS a few days ago, but it dropped it. Still, lots of uncertainty; ECMWF develops it much further on than the HWRF. CFS has showed this off and on in the super long range for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 The system I mentioned above is now a lemon for the 48hr period and a mandarin for the 120hr period. The NHC just designated it as Invest 94E. The GFS isn't too optimistic, showing a midgrade tropical storm. However, the ECMWF and HWRF make this a 973mb and 970mb hurricane, respectively. TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL500 AM PDT SAT JUN 7 2014For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles southof Acapulco, Mexico. Although shower and thunderstorm activity ispoorly organized at this time, slow development of this system ispossible during the next several days as the lowdrifts northwestward.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.$$Forecaster Kimberlain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 7, 2014 Author Share Posted June 7, 2014 I would not dismiss the HWRF after Amanda so quickly. I think we could see a hurricane out of this as shear is suppose to decrease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 8, 2014 Author Share Posted June 8, 2014 Now a mandarin, at 40/80. Could be declared Monday or tomorrow if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 UKMO/GFS TCGEN consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 8, 2014 Author Share Posted June 8, 2014 Yesterday, models were much more aggressive, with the HWRF, GFS, and Euro all showing fairly intense systems. Euro and GFS show weak TS's, but the CMC is a little more aggressive now showing a borderline hurricane. This probably should form; shear looks okay, SST's are fairly warm, and dry air, while a little is getting ingested, does not become a major issue until we hit the subtropical jet north of 20N. I hate to say this, but ill bring up 2013. Sometimes the models have an equatorword bias (paralytically the Euro), and they bust. This is what IMO happened in 2013, and the same reason why almost all the storm were weak; they were moving too quickly and due to a northern ITCZ, heading NW rather than W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 9, 2014 Author Share Posted June 9, 2014 Looking much better now. Convection more concentrated towards the center. Looks less like an oval now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 As Mike Ventrice pointed out on Twitter, the passage of a strong CCKW might aid in formation/rapid intensification of the system. I don't buy into these recent model runs which keep the system very weak. I also second what Yellow Evan said about the system looking better organized this evening. It's still being affected by some northerly shear from the anticyclone to its northwest, but convection is more concise--suggesting a more concise center of circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 9, 2014 Author Share Posted June 9, 2014 Now a cherry. 60/90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Might be time to pull the plug: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 NHC gave it a 90% Cherry. If this was in the Atlantic, people would be aflame on twitter pulling out pics of similar 50 mph Tropical Storms. Which IMO, this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 With TAFB at T2.5/35kt and SAB at T1.5/25kt, NHC will probably start off at 30kt, but I agree that it's probably already a tropical storm, possibly on its way to hurricane intensity at peak. Outflow looks good in all directions but the northwest, where there's still some light to moderate shear being inflicted. That spiral band to the west is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 9, 2014 Author Share Posted June 9, 2014 It's almost certainly going to be upgraded. May even go straight to TS status. Appears that it will have a chance at becoming a weak hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Although the cloud structure of the depression has improved markedlyin visible imagery since this morning, several microwave images indicate that the low-level and mid-level circulations are not yet juxtaposed. Furthermore, ASCAT wind data suggest that the low-level circulation is slightly elongated east-west, and a pronounced dry slot coming off of the mountains of Mexico is also evident in visible and microwave satellite data in the western semicircle. As a result, only gradual rather than rapid strengthening is forecast for the next 24-48 hours while the cyclone remains over warm water and in a low environmental wind shear. By 96 hours, cooler SSTs less than 26C, increasing southwesterly shear, and drier mid-level air are expected to produce steady weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the intensity consensus model ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 BULLETINTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 2NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014800 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...15.5N 102.2WABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES As an aside, why did the discussion indicate that the 35-kt intensity was based only on a DVORAK classifcation, rather than a blend of satellite estimates? Normally the NHC looks at all data, not just a single data point, when analyzing TC intensities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Cristina is one of those situations that if an inner core becomes established, like what appears to be occuring today, it could rapidly intensify. The storm has become vertically stacked and all that it needs to do now is mix out the dry air that got into the circulation last night. The dry air surrounding the storm shouldn't be an issue as long as the shear remains low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Christina has shaken off the northerly shear that developed when storms formed inland last night. There may be some potential for RI and I would not be surprised to see a hurricane within the next 12 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 10, 2014 Author Share Posted June 10, 2014 Hmm, they went with 45 knt. At first, I thought it was unreasonable, but now it makes sense to me. I'd still think 50 knts is a better estimate though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 I love the way the hot tower wraps around the COC towards the end of the loop. Cristina should be a hurricane in no time, if not already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 11, 2014 Author Share Posted June 11, 2014 ATCF brings it to 55 knts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 I love the way the hot tower wraps around the COC towards the end of the loop. Cristina should be a hurricane in no time, if not already. Great animation. The IR presentation got better in a hurry during the heat of the day. Seems like that dry slot is basically gone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 11, 2014 Author Share Posted June 11, 2014 Cristina has an eyewall, though it is open to the E. Still, Cristina still looks pretty good for a 55 knt system. Some dry air oh of MX is hurting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 11, 2014 Author Share Posted June 11, 2014 Adv birngs it up to 55 knts. Lots of lighting noted, which is a strong indicator of RI. I think this could be a hurricane tomorrow morning. In order for RI to happen, dry air needs to decrease and CDO needs to become better organized. If that happens it could bomb out IMO. Dry air enter the E side now. CDO looks weird, but it's Cristina's way of keeping it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 BULLETINHURRICANE CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 7NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014200 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 ...CRISTINA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...15.2N 104.1WABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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