OUGrad05 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Eh KLMN.skewt.20140402.18.gif Significant cap...wind profiles are pretty bleh as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Tornado watch just issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 TOR watch out right in the same place as the MD box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Eh KLMN.skewt.20140402.18.gif That's quite an iron-clad cap there, and I'm not sure it's going anywhere today due to the lack of upper lift or mid-level height falls. That has been one of the reasons why I've been a little more bearish for today's event (although I'm not sure I've mentioned that here). If we're relying almost completely on low level forcing, we'd have to get temps up around 30*C/86*F, which is doable, but also begins jacking up the LCL heights as well. Dewpoints are going to be higher further south and east and the cap probably won't be quite as strong in those areas, but temps aren't going to warm as much and there aren't really any boundaries to get stuff going either. It's also worth noting that low levels aren't backing there, leaving a very blah wind profile, but once again I think locations further to the south and east at least will show a hint of backing (i.e. not straight up SW), unlike at LMN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinbente Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 As an avid severe weather forecaster and rookie, I'm loving all of the information that is posted here in regards to the upcoming severe weather outbreaks for today and tomorrow. So, I must say, thanks! And a tornado watch has already been issued. Quite unexpected it would come out so early but I guess they see the true severity of these supercells, if one can develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Significant cap...wind profiles are pretty bleh as well. LMN's low-level winds are being influenced by the mesolow E of Wichita...I wouldn't expect the profile to stay that would...an Enid sounding right now would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Should add that the thermodynamic profile at Lamont may also be influenced by subsidence behind that mesolow, which means that the observed capping may erode more efficiently than some here have alluded to and/or the cap is significantly weaker farther removed from the mesolow's influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 LMN's low-level winds are being influenced by the mesolow E of Wichita...I wouldn't expect the profile to stay that would...an Enid sounding right now would be interesting. Agreed, Enid is looking good right now. Also, extreme SW KS. OK Mesonet in Copan, OK is 83/64 with due S winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 18Z NAM has some early-morning convective signals for tomorrow across AR and MO, continuing into the mid afternoon. Right on the nose of the better Theta-E advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Getting a nice line of towering cumulus in the SPC watch box now along the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Sitting on the NW side of Enid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Getting a nice line of towering cumulus in the SPC watch box now along the warm front. The dryline is farther west than you have depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 The dryline is farther west than you have depicted. Hah, yeah it is. Next time I'll use actual surface obs instead of the mesoanalysis page. Rookie mistake *EDIT: original post should now have an updated image better depicting the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Dryline/warm front intersection continues to look like the best spot for CI within the next few hours. Convergence is increasing (red line countours) in NW OK and supercell composite also continues to increase eastward along the warm front as sfc winds continue to slowly back in the warm sector east of the dryline as pressures continue to fall over the TX Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Sitting on the NW side of Enid... On our way there, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Best looking tower thus far going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Best looking tower thus far going up. Should go once those higher level clouds impinge on that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Best looking tower thus far going up. Looks like they may be forming preferentially on some boundary layer rolls intersecting the warm front. You can kind of see them on the VNX radar and the ensuing Cu on visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Best looking tower thus far going up.Failed fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 New attempt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Chicago Storm, on 02 Apr 2014 - 5:44 PM, said:New attempt... What's your approx. location right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 What's your approx. location right now?NW of Enid... Near Route 64, just south of Nash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 We should be up to the temperatures where we begin uncapping now. If thunderstorms are going up, they'll probably do so soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 One going NE of Wakita, OK went from nothing to around ~40kft in one scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Lighting ramping up very fast, tops to 40,000 just NE of Wakita. Here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Yikers on the 18Z FireWx Nest for SW Missouri tomorrow http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 From Tim Marshall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Wouldn't be surprised to see these buggers start dropping severe hail early in their life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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