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March 28-29 snow potential

ilstormchaser

By ilstormchaser,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Why would they groan a "front", especially one with no cold air and will warm up by Sunday(and really Monday)?

 

Must have been just the sight of white again that upset them. Believe me there was people in a crabby mood Tuesday because of it! Especially since most roads were not salted in the morning.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Should see some snow here, but we're gonna be on the northwest side of things/far enough removed from the best forcing...so not expecting much. Places like IND and MIE may be a bit more interesting, but it's pretty marginal at the surface...so rates will have to be pretty good.

 

Just for reference, but here's where Indianapolis stands in the season snowfall rankings. I guess if everything goes perfectly, 2nd place is possible...doubtful though. 

 

1) 58.2" in 1981-82

2) 57.9" in 1977-78

3) 55.4" in 2013-14

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

12z NAM and GFS still show a decent storm for Ohio. Should be some good discussions this afternoon. I wouldn't be surprised to see the trigger pulled for an advisory for a narrow stripe along the highest elevations.

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

Check out this SREF max 12 hour precipitation. If that turns to snow, and even gets close to the maximum as indicated, it will send Toledo and Ft. Wayne seasonal snow totals into orbit. It will most likely be about 0.2-0.3" of QPF with 2-3" of snow for northern Ohio and possibly sections of Indiana and even into central Ohio.

 

post-1182-0-08601800-1396024853_thumb.gi

 

 

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Yeah. Definitely some wild springtime scenarios on the models today. One of the SREF plumes actually has 17.5" for CLE tomorrow.

I think somebody in Ohio sees 6" tomorrow, but where is TBD.

 

12z euro jackpots Dayton with 6" and CMH with 3"     12zggem has lesser amounts (1-3") mostly confined to nw OH.    Miserable Saturday no matter how you slice it.

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

You can tell it's spring when snow threat threads can barely crack 2 pages ...

NWS CLE has a stripe of 2-5" snows across Ohio. It will be fun to watch this unfold tomorrow. I'm not holding my breath for anything significant but I'd love to see a few places in the higher terrain get 6".

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

You can tell it's spring when snow threat threads can barely crack 2 pages ...

NWS CLE has a stripe of 2-5" snows across Ohio. It will be fun to watch this unfold tomorrow. I'm not holding my breath for anything significant but I'd love to see a few places in the higher terrain get 6".

 

I think there will be a narrow swath of fairly heavy wet snow.....my guess is an axis from Dayton to Sandusky.   This would have been one hell of an Ohio snowstorm if it was a few weeks earlier.  A slow juicy system tracking from KY thru WV....sigh...oh well.  

 

nam drops 1.3"qpf with temps between 31 and 32.5 lol

 

If 'ifs' and 'buts' were candy and nuts.......

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

SREF plumes are up to 4.5" at CLE, with 7 members dropping over 6". 18z NAM has a nice swath of 6"+ for all of Northeast Ohio from Mansfield points north and east.

 

CLE holding off on headlines for now, but highlights the potential:

 

AT THIS TIME GOING MORE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
WHICH IS SLOWER IN SWITCHING THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW. IF THE NAM MODEL
WAS CORRECT IT HAS THE COLDER AIR COMING IN QUICKER AND THAT WOULD
MEAN AN ADVISORY OR WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME NO

HEADLINES FOR WINTRY WEATHER BUT THE AREAS NEAR MARION AND
MANSFIELD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THAT POTENTIAL.

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

This is such a pain in the butt for Ohio. The storm track is great for Dayton to Columbus to Cleveland and also up the eastern lakeshore, however temperature issues remain, which isn't shocking given the time of year. At least for Cleveland, most models actually have sfc-850mb temps above freezing at the onset of the precipitation, however show dry air in that layer that allows evaporational cooling to take the whole column below freezing rather quickly. If the decent precip rates verify, with the 850mb low tracking from near CVG to Wheeling, WV, evaporational cooling should be enough to change everything over so snow over much of NW and a good chunk of NE Ohio for the "main show."

The models show nice 850-700mb theta-e advection over Ohio tomorrow late morning and afternoon, with the nose of that tracking north of the 700mb low track (which most models take near or just south of YNG). This supports decent precip rates. Ohio will be between two upper level jet streaks, with good upper level divergence/large scale lift in place most of the day. Also, decent 500mb height falls and PVA also occur over much of Ohio during the afternoon/early evening. SO, I can buy the local 1" QPF amounts the models are trying to sell.

With all this said..."I think there will be the QPF and I think there will be the cold for snow, somewhere," questions still remain as to where. The Euro appears to focus a narrow corridor of heavy snow from near Dayton to inland NE Ohio...probably 4-8" in that swath. The UK appears weaker than most other models and doesn't show much potential for over 3" in Ohio...the Canadian (with support from the RGEM) appears to support a 3-6" (maybe locally a bit more) type swath from just north of Dayton to near Ashtabula, with Cleveland near the rain/snow line during the heaviest precip. The GFS and NAM are both very solid hits for northern Ohio, with some SREF support as well.

Most models appear to show the shortwave over the Plains attempting to phase with some energy currently over Texas phasing well to our west tonight, show a SE ridge and no real strong confluence over the Northeast...so I'd actually tend to favor a NAM/GFS type solution, which may be interesting for the Cleveland metro. Even still, the shot of snow will be relatively quick hitting, and will occur near or just past peak heating at the end of March. Snow can definitely still stick, especially if you're getting 1"+ per hour rates, but if this was happening a few weeks earlier the bust potential would be less.

Here's the map that's about to hit the Facebook page I forecast for. There could be 6"+ amounts somewhere, however considering the fickle nature of events like this I didn't want to put it on a map that the public will be looking at. If a GFS/NAM/GGEM type solution plays out the axis of the heaviest snow will be located pretty well, although if the Euro/UK play out things would shift south and 6"+ amounts would probably be less likely. We'll see...I'm not confident in amounts, I think there's bust potential either way.

post-525-0-59934300-1396040992_thumb.png

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

Good write up as usual, OHweather.

 

At this time of year, this is just "bonus" snow. It's a shame to waste this type of set-up at this time of year, but it won't be too disappointing to bust towards no snow at the end of March, than to bust towards no snow in the heart of winter.

 

Just tallied up my IMBY snow totals for the season, I'm currently at 94.1" ... so this could be just enough to crack me over 100" for the year. 

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

Good write up as usual, OHweather.

 

At this time of year, this is just "bonus" snow. It's a shame to waste this type of set-up at this time of year, but it won't be too disappointing to bust towards no snow at the end of March, than to bust towards no snow in the heart of winter.

 

Just tallied up my IMBY snow totals for the season, I'm currently at 94.1" ... so this could be just enough to crack me over 100" for the year. 

Thanks. Funny enough, I was planning on coming home this weekend until it was announced OU's meteorology symposium was tomorrow. So this symposium better be pretty good if this ends up panning out for Cleveland! :P

 

With temperatures on Monday possibly pushing 60, any snow that accumulates won't last long. The winter fan in me can never say no to the potential for heavy snow though, so if I would've been at home this weekend I would've been rooting on one more accumulating snowfall. 94.1" has to be pretty impressive for northwestern Cuyahoga County, and if you could hit 100" there I'd have to imagine that's getting into top 10 snowiest winter territory from there. It's amazing that CLE is so much less, they're farther inland and usually do the same or slightly better than the lakeshore west of Cleveland. I guess part of it may be the LES bands that hugged the lakeshore and didn't quite get down to CLE.

 

Anyways, 0z NAM is starting to run, let's see if it holds.

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Thanks. Funny enough, I was planning on coming home this weekend until it was announced OU's meteorology symposium was tomorrow. So this symposium better be pretty good if this ends up panning out for Cleveland! :P

 

With temperatures on Monday possibly pushing 60, any snow that accumulates won't last long. The winter fan in me can never say no to the potential for heavy snow though, so if I would've been at home this weekend I would've been rooting on one more accumulating snowfall. 94.1" has to be pretty impressive for northwestern Cuyahoga County, and if you could hit 100" there I'd have to imagine that's getting into top 10 snowiest winter territory from there. It's amazing that CLE is so much less, they're farther inland and usually do the same or slightly better than the lakeshore west of Cleveland. I guess part of it may be the LES bands that hugged the lakeshore and didn't quite get down to CLE.

 

Anyways, 0z NAM is starting to run, let's see if it holds.

 

It did. Really thin band of 6". Trent is more in line for it though.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032900&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=033

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

CLE pulled the trigger on a warning for some of the higher elevation counties with advisories for the rest (3-7"). This should be one of those nice plastering snowfalls.

 

SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE HAD BEEN
DRIFTING THE TRACK OF THE LOW A BIT FARTHER SOUTH BUT IT STILL SEEMS
AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH QPF FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT
ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE DEEPENING TROUGH
ALOFT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TONIGHT...IS ALWAYS A RED FLAG
TO ME THAT THE SYSTEM CAN BE STRONGER THAN WHAT ONE MIGHT EXPECT

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

It's amazing that CLE is so much less, they're farther inland and usually do the same or slightly better than the lakeshore west of Cleveland. I guess part of it may be the LES bands that hugged the lakeshore and didn't quite get down to CLE.

Part of that difference is from 4 events 1) the October lake effect snowstorm, which completely missed CLE 2) The Christmas Eve lake effect storm that pretty much missed CLE 3) The February 2nd Sunday morning rain to snow event where lakeshore areas hovered around freezing 4) The February 18th storm that was jackpot for lakeshore areas.

 

Combine that with the CLE's propensity to under measure snowfall, particularly considering this winter's storms were all extremely wind driven, it's not surprising they are lagging behind by that much. 

 

As for today's storm, the hype has begun. Not surprising, but Channel 19 was calling for up to a foot. I don't know how they can forecast that with a straight face.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Measured 1.0" on the nose at my place. Looks like the south and east side of LAF did best around here, which the radar certainly indicated.

 

IND still 33º and rain. Gross.

 

Might be the last one of the season here, so here's a pic to commemorate it. :D

 

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