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3/17-3/18 Storm Threat Discussion

Zelocita Weather

By Zelocita Weather,
in New York City Metro

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tdp146

tdp146

Posted
Posted

Check out the hydrology section. They mention significant QPF mostly in the form of snow.

I really like tracking march storms because wild swings in sensible weather are so common. Give me very cold air lurking around this time period, give me the CMC and euro showing a favorable track at or near the BM, the GFS maybe even trending toward the benchmark and I'm intrigued enough to stick around to see what happens. It's day 5 of course, but its about as interesting as you could hope for this time of year.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

The 06z DGEX has the first shortwave ejecting northeast at the perfect time for us. Just one of many potential solutions. We won't know exactly how this will shake down for a few days.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f126.gif

 

Especially when the euro changes the details of the PV orientation and energy cutting underneath just about every run.

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

Especially when the euro changes the details of the PV orientation and energy cutting underneath just about every run.

Im amazed at how inconsistent the EURO has been this winter both in long and medium range. This system has a good amount more potential to deliver measurable snow all the way to the coast monday but like john said still ALOT of scenarios being depicted on the model runs to rule out anything

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted 




EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

209 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014


VALID 12Z SAT MAR 15 2014 - 12Z WED MAR 19 2014


...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...


SPLIT RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND PERSISTENT TROUGHING

OVER EASTERN PORTIONS WILL YIELD A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE

NEXT WEEK. NO FEWER THAN FOUR MAIN SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE

CONUS... TWO IN THE EAST AND TWO IN THE WEST... AND THE MODELS

HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE WITH ALL BUT THE FIRST ONE.


THE FORECAST STARTS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH

THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST SAT/D3 AND THE GUIDANCE ARE

IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN FOR A FEW DAYS. THAT

FRONT SHOULD JUMP INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SINK SOUTHWARD SUN/D4. IN

THE PAC NW... THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE HAD TROUBLE RESOLVING

ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WITH

THE GFS RUNS NEARER TO THE GEFS MEAN AND THE ECMWF/UKMET RUNS

NEARER TO THE ECENS MEAN. THE ECMWF-LED CLUSTER OFFERED MARGINALLY

BETTER CONTINUITY SO OPTED FOR THAT BLEND EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

DOWNSTREAM... MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD

THROUGH CO/NM AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO CALIFORNIA... AIDING A SPLIT

NE-SW BY SUN/D4 THOUGH THERE IS NOT A CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVOLUTION

YET. THE NORTHERN PORTION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND SUPPORT

CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE CAROLINA

COAST BY MON/D5 AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION GETS LEFT BEHIND OVER OLD

MEXICO OR THE BAJA... AT A RATHER LOW LATITUDE. ECMWF HAS

DRUNKENLY TRENDED TOWARD A WEAKER SOUTHEAST SHORTWAVE IN FAVOR OF

A STRONGER MEXICAN CUTOFF LOW... BUT GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY OF THE

TRACK/INTENSITY TO THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS WITHIN THE UPPER

PATTERN... DUE TO ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL

PACIFIC... AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IN ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL. AS

SUCH... THE EC MEAN HAS SERVED WELL AT FOCUSING ON LOW PRESSURE

OFF THE GA/SC/NC COAST AROUND MON/D5 FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE

GEFS MEAN HAS WOBBLED EAST... THEN NEAR... NOW NORTHEAST OF

THERE... SO OPTED TO RELY SOLELY ON THE 12Z/11 EC MEAN AS THE LOW

OR LOWS HEAD NORTHEASTWARD TUE/D6. IN-HOUSE GEFS/ECENS CLUSTERING

ALGORITHM SHOW A SPLIT BETWEEN A DEEPER MEXICAN VS SOUTHEAST UPPER

LOW OR SHARP TROUGH... SO ALL SCENARIOS REMAIN IN PLAY.


THE LAST COUPLE OF SYSTEMS SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE WEST AS THE

RIDGE RETREATS FROM CALIFORNIA. ENERGY ALONG 140W MAY SPLIT

NE-SW... AS WAS THE CASE OVER MEXICO/TX... BUT THE

MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING HOW MUCH

ENERGY GOES WHERE. DEJA VU? GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON BRINGING THE

SOUTHERN PORTION INTO CALIFORNIA BUT HAS MOSTLY BACKED OFF ON ITS

STRONGER SOLUTIONS FROM SEVERAL RUNS AGO. ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE

INCONSISTENT RECENTLY AS WELL... WHICH LEFT THE EC MEAN AS A BEST

BET AS IN THE EASTERN CONUS. ONGOING PREFERENCE HAS BEEN FOR THE

NORTHERN PORTION TO SLIDE INTO THE PAC NW WHILE A MUCH WEAKER

SOUTHERN PORTION STUMBLES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OR SOUTHERN

OREGON. THIS SHOULD CARRY A FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TUE/D6

THEN ONTO THE PLAINS WED/D7. FINALLY... AND WITH CONTINUED LOW

CONFIDENCE... A LAST SYSTEM MAY DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF

OF ALASKA INTO WA/OR WED/D7. ENSEMBLES DO SUPPORT BUILDING RIDGING

TOWARD 150W SOUTH OF ALASKA BUT THERE IS MUCH TO BE SORTED OUT

BEFOREHAND.



...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...


IN THE EAST... TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO AS A

COLDER SHOT OF AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LEAD COLD FRONT THIS

WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK... THREAT REMAINS FOR THE POSSIBLE

COASTAL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST... WITH WIDESPREAD

MODEST TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

TRANSITION TO SNOW IS LIKELY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PRECIP

SHIELD BUT THAT IS DEPENDENT ON DETAILS WHICH ARE STILL FAR FROM

KNOWN. FROPA THROUGH FLORIDA SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER

AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK TO THE SUNSHINE STATE.


MOST OF THE WEST SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY DURING THE PERIOD... WITH

SOME AREAS 10-15F ABOVE CLIMO. MORE PRECIP SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE

PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEK AS

ENERGY MOVES INLAND. S CA/NV AND AZ SHOULD STAY DRY.



FRACASSO




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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Im amazed at how inconsistent the EURO has been this winter both in long and medium range. This system has a good amount more potential to deliver measurable snow all the way to the coast monday but like john said still ALOT of scenarios being depicted on the model runs to rule out anything

 

It's still better than all the other models which speaks to the complexity of the pattern. So it just doesn't

pay to get invested in a specific outcome beyond 120 hrs.

 

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

It's still better than all the other models which speaks to the complexity of the pattern.

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

Wow that really is something right there, i do agree that this pattern and pretty much the pattern(s) we've been in this winter as a whole has pretty much gave the models collectively a hard time to pin down a certain forecast more than 96 hours out, hell even that might be too generous

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

I don't agree with the GFS here. Hanging back that energy over New Mexico/Texas just doesn't make sense to me. I'm thinking this caves very shortly to a Euro/GGEM type solution. 

Some southern energy hangs back SW, on all the models, because a new Pacific system starts to flatten the +PNA ridge.  At this range, it's hard to tell which model solution will be correct, on the extent of it. Although, the GFS/GEFS does tend to have stronger bias with it. We had a similar issue with the this week's threat. The big difference here that the PV is much further south and east and we'll have much more confluence. So whatever southern energy comes out, it will likely be forced further south. Then it will come down to how much interaction there is with the northern stream. The Euro op and it's ensemble mean, builds more heights into Davis Strait/Northern Canada region and elongates the PV from NE to SW. The GFS/GEFS doesn't do that as much. IMO, we would have a better chance, at some northern stream interaction, with the pattern shown on the Euro solutions.

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

12z yesterday had 4 inches of snow, while the 0z last night had 3.5 inches. Not really that much of a difference.

Not much of a variation as far as snowfall totals go. Statistically, getting more than 10" in march has only happened a few times in NYC in more than 50 years, the confidence for this to produce more than a few inches IMO is very low at this time but guess we will see in the next few days
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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

Many more GEFS members are enthused about the development of the storm system at some point over the next 7 days. Encouraging sign.

John my above statement was not meant to talk down the possibilities of this storm producing a good amount of snow for our entire area. This is still far out but we are going to start seeing the effects of the sun angle more and precip. Intensity and longevity of it may be a determining factor as well in final accumulations. This is all if it does become a big deal for us

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

It's going to have to thread an increasingly narrowing needle given no blocking and climo. I suppose it's possible we get snow from this but I would hedge against it for now.

I would honestly be shocked if we got out of March without at least a little more snow, but like you said, with each day that passes, the chances diminish.

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