snowfiend420 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 So what's the call as of now for PHL? 1-3" or can we maybe get a 2-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 So what's the call as of now for PHL? 1-3" or can we maybe get a 2-4"? Sure, PHL could get 2-4, but impossible to make a call that specific at this point. I think right now anything from C-4" is a perfectly reasonable forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm actually rather surprised at the lack of discussion, the GFS still shows like 3-6" around the city and seems to be slowly creeping northward I checked the state of the models earlier, still the same situation (on the average, model wise), we're on the fence. I'd love to see significant snow (4" or more), at this point I'd be happy with 2". All hope is not lost, I have not tossed in the towel, more model runs to go, keeping weenie hope alive, but it's 60F outside and I'm enjoying the day cleaning up branches, broken bamboo, etc., from this awesome winter . Getting ready for that smooth new blanket of snow too (maybe!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What would be fantastic would be for this to come far enough north for Philly to be in the jackpot, and for significant snow to get at least to the Lehigh Valley. Sure doesn't look like that's going to happen, but it would be great, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 New Euro crept slightly north from 0Z but still pretty NAM-like. I'll go Coating-2 inches for the Trenton area. Model range there is nothing to about 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 New Euro crept slightly north from 0Z but still pretty NAM-like. I'll go Coating-2 inches for the Trenton area. Model range there is nothing to about 3 inches. Thanks for the update Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Troll if you like it's fine but the 6z GFS does show South Jrz up to 8" and Philly several. 0.5" does not equate to 8" of snow. Please show me a print out of a station in SNJ that has 0.8" of QPF......thought so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The only good news is most falls overnight, but the low rates during daylight hours will mean very little accumulations during the day. Edit: and this is for the GFS. NAM has trended way south to the point PHL gets zip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NWS just posted Winter storm watches for some of southern NJ and Deleware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ302 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-017-021>024-160915-/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0009.140317T0000Z-140317T1600Z/NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY302 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...ALL OF DELAWARE, THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND GLOUCESTER, SALEM, CUMBERLAND, ATLANTIC AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY.* TIMING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING AND MAY START AS RAIN. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD START TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING AND THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND IS LIKELY TO GREATLY AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STARTING ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE IT SNOWS, SO ICING OF UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS IS LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES FALL AND THE SNOW STARTS ACCUMULATING.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WHILE ITS SNOWING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATESTFORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Maybe we can get a shift north with this system? There has been some indications albeit slight of a jog northward in some models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 0.5" does not equate to 8" of snow. Please show me a print out of a station in SNJ that has 0.8" of QPF......thought so Snow map.. For the record my point about the gfs post when I made it early this morning is it was more north than two previous runs. Not exact totals. I said that because of several "game over" type posts that I thought were premature. And they were...or watches wouldn't have been posted. And "thought so" really?? What are you 12??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm 10 mins from the delaware border ... just across the river from jersey ... I still like my chances of seeing 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm not good at reading models but it looks like the nam has 3-4" for atleast my area in southern delco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yes the 18Z NAM crept north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yes the 18Z NAM crept north. Looks a bit more than a creep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Snow map.. For the record my point about the gfs post when I made it early this morning is it was more north than two previous runs. Not exact totals. I said that because of several "game over" type posts that I thought were premature. And they were...or watches wouldn't have been posted. And "thought so" really?? What are you 12??? Snow maps are terrible. You said "8" over a large part of SNJ". You were/are wrong with that statement. That is all I said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Looks a bit more than a creep... Its only 30 or 40 miles. The gradient makes that a big difference, but in model scales, its not that big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yes the 18Z NAM crept north. Come on now NAM crept north.... it showed 0 at 6z almost nothing at 12z thats a shift there on 18z north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemCountyNJ Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Looks like 3 to 4" with the slight north jog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 At this point id be happy with an inch.... people certainly get crazy about the snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Its only 30 or 40 miles. The gradient makes that a big difference, but in model scales, its not that big. True. But like you said, for our area, it is a HUGE difference in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Its only 30 or 40 miles. The gradient makes that a big difference, but in model scales, its not that big. okay I stand corrected do the slight creep north at 30-40 miles again at 0z then well Delaware County here would be in line for a snowstorm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Snow maps are terrible. You said "8" over a large part of SNJ". You were/are wrong with that statement. That is all I said Fair enough...18 z NAM is at least 8" for Cape May Co though. Lol...qpf alone anyway. Yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 18Z NAM - 12"+ from W. Virgina through N. VA, almost all of DE and through Salem, Cape May and Atlantic Counties on snowfall map on instantweathermaps...16"+ in Central MD Not sure what their algorithm is, if 10:1 probably overdone, but...YOU'VE BEEN NAM'D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Is the nam snowier in general then the previous run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM is probably overdone for southern areas, but it did tick north. Wouldn't take much to get the Philly area into moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 Remember, ratios will not be 10:1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 The one thing I'll say is I think unlike the previous storm, we could see some banding on the north side of the precip shield, wherever that sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What will ratios be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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