psunate1977 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Good discussion over in the CPA thread. State College put this out this morning and right now it looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Good discussion over in the CPA thread. State College put this out this morning and right now it looks pretty good. ImageUploadedByTapatalk1416935457.148224.jpg That's before the latest runs of the American models that showed a greatly expanded precip field to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 You sir are a bigger weenie than I am. I am usually all for the little shifts but I just don't see us getting more than inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You sir are a bigger weenie than I am. I am usually all for the little shifts but I just don't see us getting more than inch. We will see. Gfs had the .25 line through agc, and hires nam also. 1-3 is my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't know the accuracy or bias but it has us 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't know the accuracy or bias but it has us 1-2.[/quote Like I said, some decent trends our way right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Per the other forums, euro is throwing precip back further into pa with moderate precip pushing all the way back to western pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Euro show about .1 to .3 qpf in agc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Last post before gym and work but ok I am listening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Let's see what euro says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I could see 1 from the city east increasing to 2 as you get close to the ridges if the further NW expansion of the precip shield is accurate. Pretty high bust potential though both in terms of temps and amount of precip that makes its way back here. We will see. Gfs had the .25 line through agc, and hires nam also.1-3 is my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I could see 1 from the city east increasing to 2 as you get close to the ridges if the further NW expansion of the precip shield is accurate. Pretty high bust potential though both in terms of temps and amount of precip that makes its way back here. I actually think westmoreland should be under a wwa, and that the ridges should be in a warning. I think the laurels see 4-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Models show a nice 500 hPa shortwave approaching SW PA Wed. morning. This approach should provide some upward vertical motion to first saturate a good chunk of the column and then produce some snowfall. At this point I think 2" or less for the PIT metro (think of it more as 1" +/- 1"). Clearly, the better lifting mechanisms should be to the east, with some 700 hPa frontogenesis showing up for Cambria, Somerset Cos. and on east. Still, the mid-level positive vorticity advection/divergence with weak temperature advection (thus not much of a help nor hindrance) should produce a little snow around the metro Wed. AM. Snow from this system should be done by 1 p.m. Wed. at KPIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 PAZ023-073-075-WVZ021-022-260330-/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0021.141126T0900Z-141126T2300Z/INDIANA-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-MARION-MONONGALIA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDIANA...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...UNIONTOWN...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN230 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM ESTWEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PMEST WEDNESDAY.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.* SNOW BEGINNING...AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...WEDNESDAY MORNING.* SNOW ENDING...LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOWCOVERED ROADS.* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT SNOWFALL WILL CAUSETRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS ANDLIMITED VISIBILITY. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWSPITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 PAZ023-073-075-WVZ021-022-260330- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0021.141126T0900Z-141126T2300Z/ INDIANA-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-MARION-MONONGALIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDIANA...GREENSBURG...LATROBE... UNIONTOWN...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN 230 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES. * SNOW BEGINNING...AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. * PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...WEDNESDAY MORNING. * SNOW ENDING...LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT SNOWFALL WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. Called that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This has a huge bust potential. I'm in the 5-7 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This has a huge bust potential. I'm in the 5-7 range.Yep. Any kind of shift east could do it or the models overdoing the precip making it this far west could do it. The 18z and 0z runs should be interesting. After that, nowcasting as they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah... that 18z NAM run was juicy. Would love to see something similar from the GFS, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Reduced: 88% of original size [ 800 x 600 ] - Click to view full image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Really tight gradient around PHL. I remember similar gradients back in 2010. I also remember the NAM being overdone with moisture to the point of hilarity. I'm not sure how it has performed in those terms the last couple years, but previously it was always too wet. Regardless, it seems like this is mostly a wet snow that won't stick well to the warmer asphalt. 1-3" down here seems reasonable if not optimistic. Hopefully this winter won't be completely full of Miller B/Nor'easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 26, 2014 Author Share Posted November 26, 2014 Im still thinking we will be lucky in the metro to receive an inch. We shall see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I thought I'd see snow by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I thought I'd see snow by now. It's on the doorstep. This is just another fringe job for us so we'll see the northwestern edge of the precip for a little while before moving east. Very little accumulation around Pittsburgh it looks like. Just enough to whiten things up I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 It's on the doorstep. This is just another fringe job for us so we'll see the northwestern edge of the precip for a little while before moving east. Very little accumulation around Pittsburgh it looks like. Just enough to whiten things up I guess. Us in Bethel Park will finally do better than the city and north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Good AFD from the NWS on what's going on with this storm. Notably, the lack of a closed H5 low upstream, to steer moisture our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Us in Bethel Park will finally do better than the city and north!Yeah, I guess you and I can look at it that way. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Looking at cams. You got to go up to near Scranton to see any real snow. I know they were in the bullseye, but even places out east aren't even seeing snow. I'm on the 4-7" edge and I haven't seen a flake yet. Looks like warm ground temps could be a issue too. I'm not giving up, but this seriously has a HUGE bust potential for most of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Looking at cams. You got to go up to near Scranton to see any real snow. I know they were in the bullseye, but even places out east aren't even seeing snow. I'm on the 4-7" edge and I haven't seen a flake yet. Looks like warm ground temps could be a issue too. I'm not giving up, but this seriously has a HUGE bust potential for most of the state.the storm has barely started yet rants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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