Polar Vortex 2014 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah, we've seen next to nothing in Bethel so far. I've seen a coating on the grass a couple of times and that's about it. Very slow start to the season. What a disaster this month has turned out to be. Hasn't gone below 25 at PIT, and isn't forecast to do so for at least the next seven days, and the normal low for this time of the year is 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Weather channel saying a big chance for a white Xmas .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Weather channel saying a big chance for a white Xmas .. Maybe we have a shot if the moisture from next week's storm can stick around just long enough to give us something after the front goes through. It's usually very little from systems like this, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 Well at this point I am hoping this thing trends stronger and cuts as far west as possible. I hate cold rain and thats what it is looking like. We can't go through a snow drought the whole season can we? Eventually we have to get even a freaking over performing clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Right now the forecast is about just as bad as it can get for Christmas time. 50/60s and rain is not what, I think, most of us look for this season. This isn't Florida. I just want a white Christmas, even if it's an inch and nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 Right now the forecast is about just as bad as it can get for Christmas time. 50/60s and rain is not what, I think, most of us look for this season. This isn't Florida. I just want a white Christmas, even if it's an inch and nothing more. well at this point Id take that over cold rain. Then hopefully when the storm passes we get a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Right now the forecast is about just as bad as it can get for Christmas time. 50/60s and rain is not what, I think, most of us look for this season. This isn't Florida. I just want a white Christmas, even if it's an inch and nothing more. well at this point Id take that over cold rain. Then hopefully when the storm passes we get a pattern change. This is basically my Holiday Inn Express weather knowledge input. The GFS over the past few days has at times hinted at a wave of LP developing along the cold front, in the MA area. If the primary midwest LP is far enough west, mabey it weakens a bit, and the MA low can strengthen quicker. In theory I guess, the cold front slows down, and the developing low enhances any post frontal precip in our area. As always though, we'll see. I also have to agree that, 33 and rain, is the same as 53 and rain. So if it's gonna rain, it might as well be warm. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 This is basically my Holiday Inn Express weather knowledge input. The GFS over the past few days has at times hinted at a wave of LP developing along the cold front, in the MA area. If the primary midwest LP is far enough west, mabey it weakens a bit, and the MA low can strengthen quicker. In theory I guess, the cold front slows down, and the developing low enhances any post frontal precip in our area. As always though, we'll see. I also have to agree that, 33 and rain, is the same as 53 and rain. So if it's gonna rain, it might as well be warm. Lol Honestly I think we see the typical lake cutter set up. The storm travels above us and once the precip is about to end we see a rapid freeze up. So maybe we could squeeze a coating if we get a strong enough snow shower but its looking bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I'll consider it a victory if we can manage .2 of an inch on the ground and some flakes in the air Christmas day. (That would double our seasonal snowfall lol) Honestly I think we see the typical lake cutter set up. The storm travels above us and once the precip is about to end we see a rapid freeze up. So maybe we could squeeze a coating if we get a strong enough snow shower but its looking bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Just when I bail out on any chances of snow for Christmas the 0Z NAM sucks me in with a secondary low. It looks like it is on it's own but something to follow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Just when I thought I was out...they pull me back…: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The NAM wants to dig the the closed H5 further south, than the GFS. We'll see if any GFS runs tomorrow bring the H5 further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Just when I bail out on any chances of snow for Christmas the 0Z NAM sucks me in with a secondary low. It looks like it is on it's own but something to follow tomorrow. Looks like that potential lasted a whole 3 hrs...6z NAM says no go for WPa... Looking at the long range GFS, no sustained cold, and nothing to get excited about storm wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Honestly, the models have been pretty bad in the long-term this past month or so. It's almost as though we have to wait until three or four days out to really bother giving them any attention. Even the long-term overall pattern changes haven't panned out much. There were a couple warmups that never happened, and it looks as though the coming cool-down won't be as extended as originally prognosticated. It just seems like a crapshoot, even moreso than usual long-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Well I figured I would post this seeing as how it will most likely fringe us and we can talk about how 5 days ago it showed a nice snowstorm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 PIT could bust into the 60s on Wednesday afternoon. 850 hPa temps look warm, and steady precip looks to move out prior to the afternoon. Recall that PIT got to 72F on Dec. 22 last year... so warmth is nothing new this time of year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Honestly, the models have been pretty bad in the long-term this past month or so. It's almost as though we have to wait until three or four days out to really bother giving them any attention. Even the long-term overall pattern changes haven't panned out much. There were a couple warmups that never happened, and it looks as though the coming cool-down won't be as extended as originally prognosticated. It just seems like a crapshoot, even moreso than usual long-term. I started getting worried when it kept getting pushed back, first it was Dec 15th, then 18th then 21st then after Christmas, now the change looks to just be more transient before we move back into the fast pacific flow. I'm still not 100% sold on everything going into the crapper. I'd say give it a couple of more days to see how things play out. Seems like the pattern has been following the MJO pretty well and we've been stuck in the bad phases for awhile. Some disagreement on where we head next but hoping we can get a 7-8-1. If that happens look to see the LR look more favorable in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I guess if its not going to snow, might as well be warm right? I hate that statement on one hand because it can't snow if its that warm, but on the other hand if it wasn't going to snow either way might as well take the warmth. We've essentially punted the entire first month of winter weather which sucks given we really only have 3 solid months to begin with. PIT could bust into the 60s on Wednesday afternoon. 850 hPa temps look warm, and steady precip looks to move out prior to the afternoon. Recall that PIT got to 72F on Dec. 22 last year... so warmth is nothing new this time of year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Well I figured I would post this seeing as how it will most likely fringe us and we can talk about how 5 days ago it showed a nice snowstorm for us. Of course, the GFS looks to nose the warm tongue of death into SW Pennsylvania with an additional rain storm right in the midst of what was supposed to be a big arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Honestly, the models have been pretty bad in the long-term this past month or so. It's almost as though we have to wait until three or four days out to really bother giving them any attention. Even the long-term overall pattern changes haven't panned out much. There were a couple warmups that never happened, and it looks as though the coming cool-down won't be as extended as originally prognosticated. It just seems like a crapshoot, even moreso than usual long-term. I think that's the wise thing to do. How often have we seen our area in the bulls eye 5 days or a week out and end up with nothing, or rain/slop? Not worth getting your hopes up for something a week out when a lot of these models have been bad just a few days out. Even the almighty Euro hasn't been that great long term lately, even though that DT guy swears by it no matter what, even when it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I liked bernies video.....haven't seen any henry M stuff yet...maybe I'll go watch him too....I need some hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 I liked bernies video.....haven't seen any henry M stuff yet...maybe I'll go watch him too....I need some hope bernie is saying maybe a coating if temps fall fast enough. Lets focus on the next storm. That is all we can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Sunday monday period is looking interesting but we have seen this before so its hard to get excited. Almost every model has a decent hit for us but this could easily cut north and slam Youngstown and NE Ohio which is not unusual. Also if the cold is too much it could be suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Looks like SPC added a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms tomorrow (Christmas Eve) for everybody in this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 18z GFS has a really nice hit for the area with the Sunday into Monday system. I'm going to need some consistency before I get too excited (or even a little excited). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 18z GFS has a really nice hit for the area with the Sunday into Monday system. I'm going to need some consistency before I get too excited (or even a little excited).Exactly. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 100 times, shame on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 18z GFS has a really nice hit for the area with the Sunday into Monday system. I'm going to need some consistency before I get too excited (or even a little excited). Agreed. In the meantime, I'm still impressed by the potential for high temperatures tomorrow. Models show fairly dry conditions in the afternoon (perhaps a shower or two). Given an 850 hPa southerly wind at 50 kt in the afternoon, we could mix down warmth (850 hPa temperature of ~12C) to get to the 64-70F range at the surface. We had a similar event last year, on Dec. 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Thunderhead, while you're reading, what are the winds looking like tomorrow evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Thunderhead, while you're reading, what are the winds looking like tomorrow evening? As the cold front passes to the east, surface winds should pick up to about 10 kt sustained by 7 p.m. Wed. in W and C PA, then expand into E PA shortly thereafter and remain elevated until lessening toward sunrise. 12z EC shows gusts to 40 kt for far W PA at 7 p.m. ... 20 kt C/E PA. Gusts should peak at 35-40 kt over much of PA around 1 a.m. (highest gusts near Lake Erie). Gusts still near 30-35 kt over E PA and higher terrain of W-C PA at 7 a.m. 12/25, but should drop off as the day goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 I could post the 0z Euro snowmap but I won't because it will change ten times in the next few days. What I will post is the para and the ridiculous amount of snow it has in all of texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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