wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Lol you also said it probably would not get above freezing for weeks, and it did about 5-6 days later In this case, might be warranted. Taking a blend of the GFS and Euro, we would be looking at a couple of inches of snow, followed by a crippling ice storm (.75+" accretion), with temps not going above freezing again for anyone until after we have a MECS/HECS 3 days later. That would, indeed, paralyze 40N for at least a week and paralyze the MA for several days as well. Feb 94 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 In this case, might be warranted. Taking a blend of the GFS and Euro, we would be looking at a couple of inches of snow, followed by a crippling ice storm (.75+" accretion), with temps not going above freezing again for anyone until after we have a MECS/HECS 3 days later. That would, indeed, paralyze 40N for at least a week and paralyze the MA for several days as well. Feb 94 redux. The Euro ensembles were ok, keeps the Primary weaker and starts dying in WV at 156 while a secondary comes off the Delmarva Surface temps at 156 are close to 0 around NYC but 850`s are plus 2 . So i think WAA could still yield up to 4 inches or so from CNJ on N and then the ice signature really does look bad .Once N of 80 and 287 its close to being all snow , The DAY 10 snowmap is a wide spread crippling snowstorm Euro maps are around 15 inches or so . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The Euro ensembles were ok, keeps the Primary weaker and starts dying in WV at 156 while a secondary comes off the Delmarva Surface temps at 156 are close to 0 around NYC but 850`s are plus 2 . So i think WAA could still yield up to 4 inches or so from CNJ on N and then the ice signature really does look bad .Once N of 80 and 287 its close to being all snow , The DAY 10 snowmap is a wide spread crippling snowstorm Euro maps are around 15 inches or so . The GOOD news from the above is that a weaker primary dying over WVA and transferring to the Delmarva is more likely to bring us snow in future runs, if that is the final track. 30" of snow in 3 days would be so much better than 4" snow, severe icing, and then 20" on top of that. Either way you slice it, wow. The next 2 weeks are shaping up to be memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The GOOD news from the above is that a weaker primary dying over WVA and transferring to the Delmarva is more likely to bring us snow in future runs, if that is the final track. 30" of snow in 3 days would be so much better than 4" snow, severe icing, and then 20" on top of that. Either way you slice it, wow. The next 2 weeks are shaping up to be memorable. Next weekends storm looks to be upper NESIS 4 atleast if it verifies. It will LOADED with moisture and be paralyzing from DC-BOSTON. Mid week storm i cringe at with the icing potential. Would much rather have heavy rain. Im on the following weekends storm train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 18Z GFS has 3-5" of snow, followed by a few hours of ice, then Very Heavy Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The gfs should be showing a transfer, but instead it focuses on the primary low. Transfer should begin hr 132 as noted by the kinks in the isobars near the Carolinas though perhaps the highs up north are too weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Strong signals on the overnight models that the primary will be weaker and the transfer will occur sooner. Even the Navgem transfers off the Delmarva, but uncharacteristically floods the coastal plan with warmth. These are red flags in my opinion. If the PV does not split and phase with the southern stream, and instead hangs back to the east, we are in for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Strong signals on the overnight models that the primary will be weaker and the transfer will occur sooner. Even the Navgem transfers off the Delmarva, but uncharacteristically floods the coastal plan with warmth. These are red flags in my opinion. If the PV does not split and phase with the southern stream, and instead hangs back to the east, we are in for it. Yup. Also, we are getting closer to the energy being sampled, which will happen by 00ZFEB032014. We should start seeing true consistency by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Strong signals on the overnight models that the primary will be weaker and the transfer will occur sooner. Even the Navgem transfers off the Delmarva, but uncharacteristically floods the coastal plan with warmth. These are red flags in my opinion. If the PV does not split and phase with the southern stream, and instead hangs back to the east, we are in for it. Agreed. 6z GFS looks better than 18z last night as well. Trends were good. Off topic. If you're awake, check out the Southwest sky. That dazzling bright star is the planet Venus. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Agreed. 6z GFS looks better than 18z last night as well. Trends were good. Off topic. If you're awake, check out the Southwest sky. That dazzling bright star is the planet Venus. Incredible. Yeah, I'm a huge astronomy guru actually. Know all about it. One of these days I need to make it out to Cherry Springs Dark Sky Park in PA. Have an awesome digital Celestron telescope too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah, I'm a huge astronomy guru actually. Know all about it. One of these days I need to make it out to Cherry Springs Dark Sky Park in PA. Have an awesome digital Celestron telescope too. I guess it's okay to be OT while most sleep, but the progression of planets in the dawn/evening/night sky is awesome right now. Jupiter/Mercury/Venus, etc. Venus was/still is spectacular this AM. On topic, happy to see the consensus of a straiht cutter waned over night on GFS/GGEM/Euro. The big hope is if the PV doesn't split and nudges the transfer a bit further South so we can all cash in...and then hopefully cash in the next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Strong signals on the overnight models that the primary will be weaker and the transfer will occur sooner. Even the Navgem transfers off the Delmarva, but uncharacteristically floods the coastal plan with warmth. These are red flags in my opinion. If the PV does not split and phase with the southern stream, and instead hangs back to the east, we are in for it.Im starting to think that starting monday ( barring another all around model failure ) that we're all going to experience a 7-10 stretch of snowstorms we'll never forget. Me personally the one on the weekend has the best shot to give our top running NESIS storms a run for their money on the EC. Boatload of southern stream moisture from a Miller A and cold dome of air over the EC cant get much more bigger than that for EPIC snowsIn short next weekend is the most excited ive been this winter because of the potential historical ramifications wolf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Im starting to think that starting monday ( barring another all around model failure ) that we're all going to experience a 7-10 stretch of snowstorms we'll never forget. Me personally the one on the weekend has the best shot to give our top running NESIS storms a run for their money on the EC. Boatload of southern stream moisture from a Miller A and cold dome of air over the EC cant get much more bigger than that for EPIC snows In short next weekend is the most excited ive been this winter because of the potential historical ramifications wolf While nothing can be written in stone (not even close yet), Potential is certainly there, as I said on the last page. Cutter idea is still on the table for mid week, but that weekend system is a very nice MECS setup regardless. In 1994, I was in South Jersey and was off from school for 9 days as a result of the one-two mid-February punch. It was mostly an ice situation down there though. My best guess at this time, though, is that the mid week system does cut and we get a few inches followed by slop/rain. Weekend storm would be a MECS+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 While nothing can be written in stone (not even close yet), Potential is certainly there, as I said on the last page. Cutter idea is still on the table for mid week, but that weekend system is a very nice MECS setup regardless. In 1994, I was in South Jersey and was off from school for 9 days as a result of the one-two mid-February punch. It was mostly an ice situation down there though. My best guess at this time, though, is that the mid week system does cut and we get a few inches followed by slop/rain. Weekend storm would be a MECS+. They're is still nothing in certain at all even when we get to SB sunday. However i think your right the mid week storm will be an inland snow maker, the weekend storm will be the one to deliver the goods and if all goes well in a historic way. That weekend storm will have at this time most of the ingredients we need to challenge the top of the NESIS minus good blocking which does have me concerned "some" at this time. Let the sleepless nights begin sunday my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Agreed. 6z GFS looks better than 18z last night as well. Trends were good. Off topic. If you're awake, check out the Southwest sky. That dazzling bright star is the planet Venus. Incredible. You mean southeast? Unless that's another planet. It's funny you mention this because when I looked out the window this morning my eyes were immediately drawn to that bright star. I kept staring at it thinking it was a plane or something it's so bright. Beautiful though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I hate to be "that" guy, but could any1 comment on the EURO last night down in SE PA? 850 temps warm up, but wondering if the city & burbs get an ice storm like the 6z GFS is portraying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You mean southeast? Unless that's another planet. It's funny you mention this because when I looked out the window this morning my eyes were immediately drawn to that bright star. I kept staring at it thinking it was a plane or something it's so bright. Beautiful though. Yes, Southeast. My bad. Coffee... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I hate to be "that" guy, but could any1 comment on the EURO last night down in SE PA? 850 temps warm up, but wondering if the city & burbs get an ice storm like the 6z GFS is portraying Looks like some snow (a couple of inches) to ice and then rain. The burbs would hold on longer (Bucks, Berks and Northern Montco) to frozen, but a flip to rain would happen (as modeled of course!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yes, Southeast. My bad. Coffee... Haha cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looks like some snow (a couple of inches) to ice and then rain. The burbs would hold on longer (Bucks, Berks and Northern Montco) to frozen, but a flip to rain would happen (as modeled of course!). Thank you, back to my forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thank you, back to my forum It's all good. I moved from Delco 15 months ago, so I know what it's like to be up early, surf the different forums for info --- and I happen to know that area... Good luck w/ the storm and let's hope it trends further South for us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 6 z GFS is further S with the heavier snow than at 0z . By 150 after this has fallen whatever is left is a little rain on the coast ans ZRP just away from it . The Lowest pressure the GFS sees is 1002 with the primary and transfers it to the Delmarva by 144 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 There is a lot of plain rain from I78 S on the 0z Euro , at 156 850 s are Plus 7 with the surface around 34 into CNJ .So it is furthest N with its R/S line.However from I 78 N It never gets above 0 C and somewhere in here a Nasty ICE storm is on its way . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 There is a lot of plain rain from I78 S on the 0z Euro , at 156 850 s are Plus 7 with the surface around 34 into CNJ .So it is furthest N with its R/S line.However from I 78 N It never gets above 0 C and somewhere in here a Nasty ICE storm is on its way .Really could do without that. Hoping for a South shift. This look continues and I'm going generator shopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Really could do without that. Hoping for a South shift. This look continues and I'm going generator shopping. Ensembles look a little colder, transfer maybe a tad earlier . at 6 days I am really going with the ensembles . The R/S lines get captured in my opinion inside 72 hours and sometimes closer in that that . I Just wanted to post the GFS and Euro OP back to back . But the risk is there really is so much cold air around just to our N and the CAD signal is strong , if you are ever going get ICE , this is the setup . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ensembles look a little colder, transfer maybe a tad earlier . at 6 days I am really going with the ensembles . The R/S lines get captured in my opinion inside 72 hours and sometimes closer in that that . I Just wanted to post the GFS and Euro OP back to back . But the risk is there really is so much cold air around just to our N and the CAD signal is strong , if you are ever going get ICE , this is the setup . Yup. And I'm at 900' in Sussex County, so am even bigger threat --- so my hope is for more white than ice. Is the consensus timing late Tues to late Wed? (big client meeting on Thurs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yup. And I'm at 900' in Sussex County, so am even bigger threat --- so my hope is for more white than ice. Is the consensus timing late Tues to late Wed? (big client meeting on Thurs) Looks like Wed to me , Not sure on exact timing . At 900 ' you`re in a good ( or bad ) spot depending on how you look at it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Care to elaborate on the bolded part? I would think with less of a confluent flow north of us, the amped up solution seems to make more sense. On the 18z gfs it would appear there is less of a confluent zone to the north of us therefore making the flow more supportive of amplification. I would have presumed with strong confluence to our north, most likely in association with a better situated pv, that amplification of the s/w would be less likely as the speed divergence would promote a faster more progressive flow allowing the s/w to slip under our region. What I meant is that there is not nearly enough confluence to our north for there to be an amplified solution aloft and us see our area benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Not great trends on the models. The strong upper support moves through the MS valley on Tue, allowing for heavy snow from N MO through IL and IN. Thereafter, the s/w dampens out as a piece of the PV retrogrades west and then drops into the LW trof. That leaves us with a relatively flat trof, a far west trof axis, and a big slug of moisture. As modeled, this is all front side with minimal upper support and weak surface deepening. This still looks potentially decent, but for a 6 day threat it does not peg the excitement meter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Anybody along the coast should not be expecting more than a few inches of snow before rain in this setup. PV retrograding to the west will only mean warmer for the coastal plain/east of I-95 The storm is 6 days away...anything could happen at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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