OSUmetstud Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 So if u add i that way...u get a precip totat of approximately 0.6" in BUF...which lines up with that snowfall map using a 10:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Also...growing support of a major storm next weekend. The Tuesday-Wednesday event is not a Miller B nor a nor'easter really. It's shortwave from the southwest US interacting with the cold dome over the northeast. There is no closure of mid-level low centers...no development of anomalous easterlies north of the low centers. The top end of these things is really 10-12" of snow. They are limited by duration and that nearly all the precip that falls is from WAA/isentropic lift. The only reason there is limited secondary development is that primary cannot force itself through the low-level cold air situated over new england aided by mid-level confluence over Quebec. I more proper example of a Miller B nor'easter would be what the 06z gfs is showing next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Also...growing support of a major storm next weekend. The Tuesday-Wednesday event is not a Miller B nor a nor'easter really. It's shortwave from the southwest US interacting with the cold dome over the northeast. There is no closure of mid-level low centers...no development of anomalous easterlies north of the low centers. The top end of these things is really 10-12" of snow. They are limited by duration and that nearly all the precip that falls is from WAA/isentropic lift. The only reason there is limited secondary development is that primary cannot force itself through the low-level cold air situated over new england aided by mid-level confluence over Quebec. I more proper example of a Miller B nor'easter would be what the 06z gfs is showing next weekend. Yeah I was figuring a 6-10 inch event which would still be in WSW criteria, I'm sticking with my gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Latest NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Latest GEM looks much stronger and hits this region quite nicely. It keeps the primary low stronger for a longer duration of time compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 For once i'd like to trust the nam lol, it gives us 12-16" region-wide with jackpot between roc and syr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm thinking 6-10" is reasonable at this juncture....can always adjust as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wowww. 18z GFS just hammered the entire region with 16-24 inches for next weekend's storm. It's the exact same setup as today, except the primary cuts further west and the system is wetter and slower. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020218&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wowww. 18z GFS just hammered the entire region with 16-24 inches for next weekend's storm. It's the exact same setup as today, except the primary cuts further west and the system is wetter and slower. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020218&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=204 I would love to see that, but with the exception of December 13, 1944 and January 22-23, 1966 Toronto just doesn't see storms like that. I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wowww. 18z GFS just hammered the entire region with 16-24 inches for next weekend's storm. It's the exact same setup as today, except the primary cuts further west and the system is wetter and slower. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020218&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=204 It's not even close to the exact same set-up as today lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's not even close to the exact same set-up as today lol. Do you think a storm like that is plausible? I ask this not as a weather weenie, but simply for interest's sake. I mean, Toronto and Buffalo have seen 16" synoptic events, but they are exceedingly rare. My fellow Torontonians in the lakes sub-forum think not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's not even close to the exact same set-up as today lol. I meant that in the sense that it's a primary running into eastern Ohio that transfers to a secondary south of NYC/LI and heads east. The exact same areas get snow as will get it on Wednesday, just more of it. I haven't looked at the upper air charts yet. Edit: Just saw the 0z run and the Miller A. Hopefully it can come back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...ERIE...GENESEE...WYOMING...LIVINGSTON...ONTARIO COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. * TIMING...LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING GREATER THAN 6 INCHES. * VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS ROADS BECOME SNOW COVERED...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. THERE REMAINS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRACK COULD ALTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 I haven't seen this from HPC in our area in quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 GGEM looks like a huge hit. Anyone have total snowfall numbers from this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 0z Model Summary for the Wednesday storm(for CNY and WNY) NAM: 10-16, highest amounts in the Finger Lakes GFS: 6-10, highest amounts in the southern tier GGEM: 6-12, highest amounts in the southern tier ECM: 8-14, highest amounts in the southern tier UKMET: 4-8 with some snow left to fall, highest amounts in southern tier SREF Means: 8-10 with members from 5-15, amounts consistent across region UKMET is the furthest south but jumped north from its 12z run, while NAM is the furthest north and edged south from its 18z run. A late NW trend like we've seen with many storms this year would increase everyone's totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GGEM looks like a huge hit. Anyone have total snowfall numbers from this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 THE LATEST NAM HAS NOW COME INTO MUCH CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFSAND ECMWF REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL MOVE TO WESTERN PA BY 12Z TUESDAY...WHILE A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. ALOFT...OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX THAT WILL BE ARCING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE SHALLOWLY SLANTED WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE COLD AIR MASS THAT ALREADY WILL BE IN PLACE. THESE FAVORABLE SOURCES OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CAUSE SNOW TO SPREAD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN PA LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW AS IT HEADS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROJECTED PATH OF THE STORM WILL PLACE MOST OF OUR AREA IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE INITIAL PENNSYLVANIA LOW. AS A RESULT...STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL TREND WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL TOTALS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOUT 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. IF THERE IS A GREATER CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO...OR IF ANY MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOW...SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD BE HIGHER. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS A COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z GFS continues edging SE. KBUF and KBGM have the same 6-10 winter watch, I think it's a lot more likely Bingo gets that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The Tue night / Wed storm, and potentially the upcoming Sun / Mon storm are classic examples of how the NY lake-effect zones can really cash in on synoptic systems under the right setup. There's been a relative derth of storms in which both Rochester and Albany do well the last 5-10 years, but this pattern is sure trying to make up for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The Tue night / Wed storm, and potentially the upcoming Sun / Mon storm are classic examples of how the NY lake-effect zones can really cash in on synoptic systems under the right setup. There's been a relative derth of storms in which both Rochester and Albany do well the last 5-10 years, but this pattern is sure trying to make up for that! Cautiously optimistic here in BUF for at least the Tue night/Wed storm. As a general rule, it seems like these synoptic systems from the south/southwest tend to under-produce on the Niagara Frontier - poor snow growth, downsloping, warm air intrusion, etc. On the other hand, any synoptic systems from the west/northwest tend to over-produce with added enhancement from lakes Erie and Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 lol That map is out to lunch lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 That map is out to lunch lmao. Yeah, that was last Euro run. This one is much further southeast with the 2nd low which makes these totals so insane. Someone along the northeast coast is going to get hit with a huge nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah, that was last Euro run. This one is much further southeast with the 2nd low which makes these totals so insane. Someone along the northeast coast is going to get hit with a huge nor'easter. Did you see the 6z gfs run? it clobbers the whole region! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Did you see the 6z gfs run? it clobbers the whole region! SREFs look amazing for this next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Did you see the 6z gfs run? it clobbers the whole region! No not yet....OMG... lols Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Nearly every model is coming into consensus of WSW criteria snowfall with Tuesday night-Weds system. Fixed. I'll stick with my WSW call. If I have to eat crow, so be it. Yeah I was figuring a 6-10 inch event which would still be in WSW criteria, I'm sticking with my gut. ..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM ESTWEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO4 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER INEFFECT.* LOCATIONS...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES.* TIMING...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...A STORM TOTAL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE.* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES AND WORST TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 No not yet....OMG... lols btw BUF just upgraded the winter storm watches, Northern Erie and Niagara are left out though.. i'm thinking 4-6" for BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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