BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wow KART cashed in big time, what a winter for them! Wow incredible totals! The band was very transient for awhile there but once the evening came in stopped moving and was producing 1-2 inches per hour which result in these near 2 foot amounts, quite incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z nam Looks good for BUF northward. Looks good, but the NAM is the outlier...Most have the heaviest snow from Detriot up towards northwest of Toronto. Will be interesting to see what the next few runs of models do with this. Right now I am suspecting 1-3 inches of snow, then a turnover to mix/rain, than another 1-3 on the backside of the system. The real system to watch is Wednesdays system. That looks to make this one look like child's play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Why haven't you two moved to the Tug Hill yet? I'm not getting hyped on the midweek storm for WNY. The current track most models suggest up the Appalachians never happens. We're either slopped or missed/fringed to the east on these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Why haven't you two moved to the Tug Hill yet? I'm not getting hyped on the midweek storm for WNY. The current track most models suggest up the Appalachians never happens. We're either slopped or missed/fringed to the east on these. There is nothing in the Tug except snowmobilers and an army base in Watertown. Where do you work? I get excited tracking all storms, don't really care if we get hit or not since this season has been epic enough already. But somewhere next week is going to get hit with a monster storm, all elements are coming together with the phasing. We really need a perfect phase to get a synoptic storm with the trajectory of the Wednesday system but it has worked out many times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Saturday-Sunday looks like a minor event if anything. Trace to 2" then a changeover to rain. There's no blocking nor mid-level confluence to hold low-level cold air as the low tracks to our west. Tuesday-Wednesday looks like the real deal. It's a nice strong shortwave running into an arctic airmass. Track looks reasonable, a primary coming up through Ohio/PA transferring to a secondary somewhere near NJ. Details to worked out, but should be a nice juicy storm as there is Gulf of Mexico moisture getting thrown up over the arctic dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Why haven't you two moved to the Tug Hill yet? I'm not getting hyped on the midweek storm for WNY. The current track most models suggest up the Appalachians never happens. We're either slopped or missed/fringed to the east on these. But it's transferring to the coast. That track is typical. It's not a strong primary running along the spine of the Apps. If the models did show that, I would agree, it's rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Saturday-Sunday looks like a minor event if anything. Trace to 2" then a changeover to rain. There's no blocking nor mid-level confluence to hold low-level cold air as the low tracks to our west. Tuesday-Wednesday looks like the real deal. It's a nice strong shortwave running into an arctic airmass. Track looks reasonable, a primary coming up through Ohio/PA transferring to a secondary somewhere near NJ. Details to worked out, but should be a nice juicy storm as there is Gulf of Mexico moisture getting thrown up over the arctic dome. I asked the NWS about snowfall records for WNY. They gave me this website. It still doesn't allow me to see the record snowfall for Perrysburgh though. They do average 220 inches a year which I thought was incredible. National Weather Service Climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I asked the NWS about snowfall records for WNY. They gave me this website. It still doesn't allow me to see the record snowfall for Perrysburgh though. They do average 220 inches a year which I thought was incredible. National Weather Service Climate That record that was mentioned before was incorrect btw...hooker had 476" not 376" in 1976-1977. That is the record for east of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I would think Perrysburg's record is over 300". Perhaps as high as 350". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 That record that was mentioned before was incorrect btw...hooker had 476" not 376" in 1976-1977. That is the record for east of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I should mention...and it is highlighted in the 12z euro...that the Tuesday-Wednesday system does have some potential to changover to freezing rain, sleet, and even rain. I would think the 12z euro is about the northern most solution I'd expect. There is no blocking on the Atlantic side and there really hasn't been all winter, but the continued negative EPO (Alaska/Siberian ridge bridge) allows arctic air to flood Canada and hold the storm track further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 I should mention...and it is highlighted in the 12z euro...that the Tuesday-Wednesday system does have some potential to changover to freezing rain, sleet, and even rain. I would think the 12z euro is about the northern most solution I'd expect. There is no blocking on the Atlantic side and there really hasn't been all winter, but the continued negative EPO (Alaska/Siberian ridge bridge) allows arctic air to flood Canada and hold the storm track further south. It seems that system early next week does not have much cold air to work with. All the models seem to have a very thin area of snow on the northern fringes of the system. Any reason to this with how much cold air we still have untapped just to the north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It seems that system early next week does not have much cold air to work with. All the models seem to have a very thin area of snow on the northern fringes of the system. Any reason to this with how much cold air we still have untapped just to the north of us. Which one...the Tuesday/Wednesday one or the one this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Which one...the Tuesday/Wednesday one or the one this weekend? Tuesday/Weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 12z NAM actually had decent snow with Saturdays system for Buffalo North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Tuesday/Weds. It has a lot of low-level cold to work with...not a lot of mid-level cold. The 500mb shortwave riding into the lakes and the SE ridge allows it to warm in the 850-700mb area. With the confluence and the high to the north, you should notice a pretty large area of sleet and freezing rain being depicted on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I really think the NAM is crap on Saturday. When your last hope is the NAM and the GFS and Euro don't have much snow...you know it's almost time to give up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 I really think the NAM is crap on Saturday. When your last hope is the NAM and the GFS and Euro don't have much snow...you know it's almost time to give up lol. I agree, its the outlier haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 It has a lot of low-level cold to work with...not a lot of mid-level cold. The 500mb shortwave riding into the lakes and the SE ridge allows it to warm in the 850-700mb area. With the confluence and the high to the north, you should notice a pretty large area of sleet and freezing rain being depicted on the models. So even if we get all snow, the dendrites are going to be crappy. Boo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So even if we get all snow, the dendrites are going to be crappy. Boo!! That's possible, depends on the lift and moisture too. It's not just a function of temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 I really think the NAM is crap on Saturday. When your last hope is the NAM and the GFS and Euro don't have much snow...you know it's almost time to give up lol. By the way, what is making nearly every system this year trend more NW as we get closer to the event? Nearly every synoptic systems jackpot for snow has been in Illonois, Indiana, and Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 By the way, what is making nearly every system this year trend more NW as we get closer to the event? Nearly every synoptic systems jackpot for snow has been in Illonois, Indiana, and Michigan. Combination of things...it's a relatively normal trend just about every year anyway. Especially with the lack of blocking on the Atlantic side, models will occasionally underdo the amount of convection on the downstream side of the trough axis...decreasing the half-length and causing a positive feedback...the storm to strengthen further and come northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Combination of things...it's a relatively normal trend just about every year anyway. Especially with the lack of blocking on the Atlantic side, models will occasionally underdo the amount of convection on the downstream side of the trough axis...decreasing the half-length and causing a positive feedback...the storm to strengthen further and come northwest. It can't be completely normal though because after these two storms nearly every reporting agency in those 3 states are going to be all time yearly snowfall records. I guess the persistency of this pattern led to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 But it's transferring to the coast. That track is typical. It's not a strong primary running along the spine of the Apps. If the models did show that, I would agree, it's rare. Maybe I'm missing something, but the 12Z GFS and Euro show a single low w/ a track from roughly B'ville TX to Memphis to near BUF? I'm not seeing secondary development. Maybe I'm missing something or its a new twist introduced by 12Z runs. That track, if it materialized, is another disappointment for most of us...a SN->RN w/ embedded ZR in the usually prone locations. I'd rather take my chances w/ the potential disappointment of a secondary low transfer than the certitude of mostly RN w/ that 12Z scenario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Maybe I'm missing something, but the 12Z GFS and Euro show a single low w/ a track from roughly B'ville TX to Memphis to near BUF? I'm not seeing secondary development. Maybe I'm missing something or its a new twist introduced by 12Z runs. That track, if it materialized, is another disappointment for most of us...a SN->RN w/ embedded ZR in the usually prone locations. I'd rather take my chances w/ the potential disappointment of a secondary low transfer than the certitude of mostly RN w/ that 12Z scenario... There's secondary development on the 12z gfs and the 18z gfs that I can see...you can see the bagginess in the isobars south of Long Island. It's not a strong secondary development because it's what SNE would call a "Southwest flow event" where the mid-level trough doesn't cut underneath us...it tracks through the Great Lakes but the cold air causes a weak secondary to form near the SNE/Mid-Atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 There's secondary development on the 12z gfs and the 18z gfs that I can see...you can see the bagginess in the isobars south of Long Island. It's not a strong secondary development because it's what SNE would call a "Southwest flow event" where the mid-level trough doesn't cut underneath us...it tracks through the Great Lakes but the cold air causes a weak secondary to form near the SNE/Mid-Atlantic coast. Got it. Thanks. We'll see how this materializes. Obviously rooting for 00Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRLady Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1079777 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Got it. Thanks. We'll see how this materializes. Obviously rooting for 00Z Euro. yep...still like 6 days out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It can't be completely normal though because after these two storms nearly every reporting agency in those 3 states are going to be all time yearly snowfall records. I guess the persistency of this pattern led to that. Well yeah, obviously the general storm track has been very favorable for the midwest this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 KBuf seems to be on the action as well with the lake effect, albeit on the southern end of it. Visibilities there under a mile for 3 straight hours. It's crazy man, wasn't even expecting this.. No kidding. I just got back from a two day trip to Buffalo and Niagara Falls (sightseeing, not for shopping) and totally wasn't expecting to run into snow! The winds were something else. as was the drifting snow on Highway 62 between Niagara Falls and Tonawanda. We had lunch at Ted's Hotdogs on Niagara Falls Blvd. near Amherst and it was like a blizzard outside! By the way, the semi-frozen falls are amazing. Went to Goat Island, and it was like walking through a snow hurricane on Wednesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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