BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ayuud you got the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 OSU whats your take on the next system early next week? Any changes with the latest runs. Euro shows a big hit for this area for several consecutive runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 OSU whats your take on the next system early next week? Any changes with the latest runs. Euro shows a big hit for this area for several consecutive runs. I see no reason to change what I said before. Models will oscillation north and south over the next few days...but the general theme is the same...strong system with a lot of moisture running into cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT STORM ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHTAND WEDNESDAY AS THIS LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA. EC AND GFS ARE INGENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPS ALOFT...GFS ISA LITTLE WARMER AND IMPLIES A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERNTIER ON WEDNESDAY...EC IS NOW COLDER WITH ALL SNOW. BOTH MODELSPLACE A STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREAWITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ALONG THIS DEFORMATION ZONE...ANDWITH THE SO-CALLED "WRAP AROUND" SNOW PATTERN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGEOF THE SURFACE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINSWILL EXTEND EASTWARD AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL ADRYING AND EVENTUAL CLEARING TREND TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY ANDFRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT STORM ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THIS LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA. EC AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPS ALOFT...GFS IS A LITTLE WARMER AND IMPLIES A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER ON WEDNESDAY...EC IS NOW COLDER WITH ALL SNOW. BOTH MODELS PLACE A STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ALONG THIS DEFORMATION ZONE...AND WITH THE SO-CALLED "WRAP AROUND" SNOW PATTERN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND EASTWARD AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL A DRYING AND EVENTUAL CLEARING TREND TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Solid hit, there is another system following this one which goes on a similar path. Definitely shaping up to be a better period synoptically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Solid hit, there is another system following this one which goes on a similar path. Definitely shaping up to be a better period synoptically. Indeed! that midweek storm has the potential for heavy snow across WNY/CNY if the track on euro verifies lets hope we don't get screwed by the dreaded NW trend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Actually, the trend with tonight's 0z suite was towards a weaker primary, an earlier transfer, and an all-snow solution for upstate NY. The concern I have now is that if the primary gets any weaker or the transfer happens sooner, then our QPF and snow totals will dry up. The ECM already had KITH struggling to get above .7" QPF, with the heaviest snows near the mix line in the lower Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nearly every model is coming into consensus of WSW criteria snowfall with Tuesday night-Weds system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nearly every model is coming into consensus of WWA criteria snowfall with Tuesday night-Weds system. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SN just changed over to RN/PL here north of SYR. Coating of snow. It held on longer than I thought it would. Temp 33-34F. Tues-Wed looks somewhat promising but hard to trust these complex Miller B's. Maybe its my misperception but it seems we've been screwed more often than not. Maybe we are due for some over-performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY WHILELOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS NORTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT AN ENERGETIC WARM ADVECTION PATTERN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW WITH THE GREATER QPF ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PASSES FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO COASTAL MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...GFS MAINTAINS STRENGTH IN THE ORIGINAL LOW CENTER WHEREAS ECMWF WEAKENS THE LOW OVER WESTERN PA IN SACRIFICE TO THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW AND THUS KEEPS WEST TO EAST ORIENTED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NEW YORK STATE AND PROLONGS THE PRESENCE OF STEADY SNOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. QPF FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE UNDER WARNING RANGE BUT WILL BE ATTENDED TO CLOSELY IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. COLD AIR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL BE COLD ENOUGH...-14C TO -16C ON ECMWF AND -14C TO -18C ON GFS...TO PRODUCE A LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE AND WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAND WOULD SET UP A CONVERGENCE REGION AND AN AREA OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO INLAND CENTRAL NY. GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH WITH THE COLD AIR...ECMWF IS MORE RIDGED WITH ONLY A HINT OF A TROUGH. WILL GO WITH LOW LIKELY POPS WANING TO CHANCE POPS LATE WED NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Has changed over to rain here also. Just a little coating of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 How's the weather in the Buffalo area? We are holding on to snow up here in Toronto. Looking forward to the next system when we can all share in the snow! Hoping for one last blast of cross polar air too to get this month's mean temperature down so we can have every winter month finish out below normal temperature wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Fixed. I'll stick with my WSW call. If I have to eat crow, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 How's the weather in the Buffalo area? We are holding on to snow up here in Toronto. Looking forward to the next system when we can all share in the snow! Hoping for one last blast of cross polar air too to get this month's mean temperature down so we can have every winter month finish out below normal temperature wise. Light rain last few hours, should continue all night. Maybe a changeover to snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Latest Euro for Tues. Night-Weds. system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Latest Euro for Tues. Night-Weds. system: Looks good. The GGEM is quite dry and progressive with this system, which goes against it's biases. Hopefully the last minute north/wet trend we've seen on systems this year holds true once more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Latest Euro for Tues. Night-Weds. system: Hmm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hmm.. Photo doesn't show up lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Photo doesn't show up lol? It is showing up on my end but here it is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 It is showing up on my end but here it is.. I see it now, wow that's weird. If you go to weatherunderground's Euro my totals are correct. Might be some initialization problems on weatherbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I see it now, wow that's weird. If you go to weatherunderground's Euro my totals are correct. Might be some initialization problems on weatherbell. Yea there is definitely something wrong with their maps, i just checked wunderground too.. good thing i'm not paying for their bs subscription lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yea there is definitely something wrong with their maps, i just checked wunderground too.. good thing i'm not paying for their bs subscription lol haha! Euro shows nearly 1 inch qpf just southeast of here. Definitely warning criteria snows all over WNY. Still lots of model watching to do but it looks promising. The NAM is so far northwest, it still makes me worry with mixing issues. But that is the outlier with this. GFS has a 6-8 inch snowfall similar to the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 haha! Euro shows nearly 1 inch qpf just southeast of here. Definitely warning criteria snows all over WNY. Still lots of model watching to do but it looks promising. The NAM is so far northwest, it still makes me worry with mixing issues. But that is the outlier with this. GFS has a 6-8 inch snowfall similar to the GGEM. I don't think this is the first time WxBell maps have been off this winter. Nice to see the Euro with such a good solution. I definitely wouldn't worry about the NAM at this range, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 wunderground maps occasionally "double add" qpf. 3 hr precip becomes 6 h precip on some of the hourly plots. I'd bet the 84 hr plot is 6 hr precip not 3 hr precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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