ayuud11 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Mine as well throw this one in here for the lolz... Is that a total snowfall accumalation up to that point? we barely get into action with that midweek storm per the canadian.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 -13 here this morning brrrrrrr. So tired of these really cold days. Was suppose to be around 0 for a low wrong haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This is why they closed the skyway earlier, absolutely brutal out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Very active time coming up synoptically the next 5-10 days. Nice discussion by the NWS this afternoon. ON FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT AS IT PASSES OVER OURREGION. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY REAL SYNOPTIC FORCING IN THE VCNTY OFTHE SFC BOUNDARY...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BACKING OFF ON POPSFROM CONTINUITY BY GOING WITH LOW CHC VALUES. AGAIN...SOME SUBTLEENHANCMENT EAST/NE OF BOTH LAKES WILL WARRANT A BIT HIGHER POPS.MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALLOVER THE LENGTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ESTABLISH AN INVERTED TROUGH.THIS SFC PRESSURE WEAKNESS WILL LATER SERVE AS A PATHWAY FOR WAVESTHAT WILL PLAY MORE MEANINGFUL ROLES IN OUR WEEKEND WEATHER. MAXTMEPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OFFREEEZING.A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY EVENING...THEN WILL START TO SHEAR OUT AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY A +100KT H25JET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL END UP SENDING SEVERAL SFCWAVES UP THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE OHIOVALLEY. TIMING THESE INITIAL WAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT...BUT EACHONE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF ENHANCED PCPN. THESERIPPLES SHOULD NOT PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THOUGH UNTILSATURDAY...SO GIVEN A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT OVER WESTERN NEW YORKDURING THE BULK OF THE NIGHT...WILL CUT BACK ON POPS AND ONLY USELIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN TIER.A SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURINGTHE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE THE H925-H7THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...WITH A STRONG BAROLCLINIC ZONEBECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE MID WESTERN STATES TO THE LOWER GREATLAKES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE A 1000 MILE LONGSWATH OF FAIRLY STEADY WINTRY PCPN...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE MIXEDWITH RAIN AND/OR SLEET ON ITS SOUTHERN EDGE. THE GFS PLACES THE AXISOF THE STEADY PCPN NEARLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WHILE THE OFTENMORE DEPENDABLE ECMWF HAS THE AXIS SOME 100 MILES FURTHER WEST. THEMAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE P-TYPE. THE IAG FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRYHAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR JUST SNOW...WITH AN INCREASING CHC FORRAIN OR SLEET TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TREND OF THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TOBRING THE MIXED PCPN FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...SO WILL USE ACOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR PLACEMENT OF THE MIX. QPFWILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO TENTHS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTSBEING FOUND OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES (CLOSER TO LK ERIE AND SRNONTARIO).THE AXIS OF THE STEADY PCPN WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS OUR FORECASTAREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MIXED PCPN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THENIGHT CHANGING TO JUST SNOW. QPF IS FORECAST TO AVERAGE ANOTHERQUARTER INCH OR SO...WHICH WOULD MAKE THIS A SOLID ADVISORY CRITERIAEVENT. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...DO NOT SEE ENOUGH QPF OR IMPACT(WEEKEND) TO WARRANT A WATCH. WILL COVER THIS SCENARIO IN THE HWOPRODUCT. THE NEXT BUNDLE OF ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM WILL EJECT OUT OF OLDMEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CORRESPONDING SFC LOW OVER SRN TEXAS ANDTHE FAR WESTERN GULF WILL THEN CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN AS IT WILLLIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ANDWEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WELL DEVELOPED 1000MB LOW WILLBE CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SCENARIOWILL RESULT IN A LARGE SHIELD OF STEADY SNOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSSTHE OHIO VALLEY AND MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 This is why they closed the skyway earlier, absolutely brutal out there today. Yeah I have been checking the cams and it looks like 40+ mph wind gusts are causing the snow on the lake to blow onto Route 5 and the sky-way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 KBuf seems to be on the action as well with the lake effect, albeit on the southern end of it. Visibilities there under a mile for 3 straight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah I have been checking the cams and it looks like 40+ mph wind gusts are causing the snow on the lake to blow onto Route 5 and the sky-way. It's crazy man, wasn't even expecting this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Latest snowfall totals in WNY so far this year. Perrysburg should break 300 by the end of this winter. That has to be close to a record. =0 BATAVIA: 52.0"BUFFALO NWS: 80.6"COLDEN: 173.5"FRANKLINVILLE: 63.0"JAMESTOWN: 69.0"LYNDONVILLE: 49.5"NIAGARA FALLS: 48.8"NORTH TONAWANDA: 42.3"OLEAN: 36.5"PERRYSBURG: 219.0"PORTAGEVILLE: 37.0"PORTLAND: 74.5"SILVER SPRINGS: 85.4"WALES: 123.1"WARSAW: 147.1"WELLSVILLE : 26.8"YOUNGSTOWN: 53.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Wow dude! That is an incredible video, I really should of taken the time to go up there today and filmed a 5-10 minute clip of that. Hopefully we get another opportunity with additional snow+wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Latest snowfall totals in WNY so far this year. Perrysburg should break 300 by the end of this winter. That has to be close to a record. =0 BATAVIA: 52.0" BUFFALO NWS: 80.6" COLDEN: 173.5" FRANKLINVILLE: 63.0" JAMESTOWN: 69.0" LYNDONVILLE: 49.5" NIAGARA FALLS: 48.8" NORTH TONAWANDA: 42.3" OLEAN: 36.5" PERRYSBURG: 219.0" PORTAGEVILLE: 37.0" PORTLAND: 74.5" SILVER SPRINGS: 85.4" WALES: 123.1" WARSAW: 147.1" WELLSVILLE : 26.8" YOUNGSTOWN: 53.7" FWIW record for most snow in a season is 379.5 which was set back in 1979 in Hooker NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Wow dude! That is an incredible video, I really should of taken the time to go up there today and filmed a 5-10 minute clip of that. Hopefully we get another opportunity with additional snow+wind. you'll get stuck lol, 3ft drifts everywhere in the park, caught me by surprise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 FWIW record for most snow in a season is 379.5 which was set back in 1979 in Hooker NY. That doesn't count for us in WNY. Of course the tug gets insane totals. What's the WNY record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 you'll get stuck lol, 3ft drifts everywhere in the park, caught me by surprise.. No way dude, i have 4 snows and all wheel drive. I never get stuck. I am an expert driving in the snow. BTW how much snow did you get today out of the Lake Effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 No way dude, i have 4 snows and all wheel drive. I never get stuck. I am an expert driving in the snow. BTW how much snow did you get today out of the Lake Effect? Hard to tell but i'd say close to an inch or so, btw unless you got it lifted you will have a hard time navigating thru, trust me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 That doesn't count for us in WNY. Of course the tug gets insane totals. What's the WNY record? I meant NY state, not sure about WNY, i think perrysburg might set a record this year if they keep it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRLady Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Watertown ,Black River is smoking right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Watertown ,Black River is smoking right now! I'm jealous! we could be like that too over here if this lake wasn't frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm jealous! we could be like that too over here if this lake wasn't frozen. Yeah just upgraded to LES Warning. Bet Buffalo would have received 6-10 inches today if lake wasn't frozen. Solid SW wind for 6+ hours today. * LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON COUNTY.* TIMING...THROUGH TONIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 7 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Watertown ,Black River is smoking right now! Nice, enjoy! Decent band up there, tenacious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I left BUF airport this afternoon for Houston in a ground blizzard. The airfield looked like a scene straight out of Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If Erie wasn't frozen, the city would have got at least a foot these last 3 days. Conditions were great. Oh well. Goodbye, ridiculous cold. Now to hope this weekend storm isn't too much rain/mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thank God for Cuse basketball to keep me entertained during this frigid and dry winter. Seriously IDK how the heck we have over 60" this season. I don't remember one big lake effect or synoptic event to hit us. Those flurries must really add up over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The midweek storm looks interesting for CNY. Could see a big snowstorm if the transfer is timed correctly. Otherwise it might just be a really nasty ice storm with major CAD across the region. Anything is better than the frigid and dry spell we appear to be finally leaving. Edit: Tonight's ECM was very nice for all of upstate with the exception for the far northern areas. 12-16" everywhere within 50-75 miles of a Jamestown-Albany axis. Obviously things will change but this has the potential to be the region's best widespread synoptic storm since February 2011. The biggest concern would be this thing cutting west and producing a snow-ice-rain mess, but the GFS, GGEM, and ECM have all been consistent with a big storm of some kind in this timeframe for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The midweek storm looks interesting for CNY. Could see a big snowstorm if the transfer is timed correctly. Otherwise it might just be a really nasty ice storm with major CAD across the region. Anything is better than the frigid and dry spell we appear to be finally leaving. Edit: Tonight's ECM was very nice for all of upstate with the exception for the far northern areas. 12-16" everywhere within 50-75 miles of a Jamestown-Albany axis. Obviously things will change but this has the potential to be the region's best widespread synoptic storm since February 2011. The biggest concern would be this thing cutting west and producing a snow-ice-rain mess, but the GFS, GGEM, and ECM have all been consistent with a big storm of some kind in this timeframe for days now. Indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Indeed! Awesome hit for this entire forum. Hopefully it comes to fruition. Most of the other models show something very similar. I will gladly take the snow/ice/rain/snow mixture from the first storm to get a chance at a hit from the much larger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z nam Looks good for BUF northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wow KART cashed in big time, what a winter for them! Public Information Statement Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text 000 NOUS41 KBUF 301555 PNSBUF NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-310355- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1055 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014 **********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL********************** LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT NEW YORK ...ERIE COUNTY... 5 NNE AMHERST 1.0 800 AM 1/30 COCORAHS 1 NW WILLIAMSVILLE 0.5 800 AM 1/30 COCORAHS 1 NW KENMORE 0.5 600 AM 1/30 COCORAHS BUFFALO 0.3 700 AM 1/30 NWS OFFICE 3 NE CHEEKTOWAGA 0.3 700 AM 1/30 COCORAHS ESE KENMORE 0.2 750 AM 1/30 COCORAHS ...JEFFERSON COUNTY... WATERTOWN 26.7 700 AM 1/30 SOCIAL MEDIA 3 S THERESA 7.0 700 AM 1/30 COCORAHS ...LEWIS COUNTY... BEAVER FALLS 10.0 730 AM 1/30 SOCIAL MEDIA 6 N CROGHAN 8.0 700 AM 1/30 COCORAHS 5 SSW HARRISVILLE 3.0 530 AM 1/30 COCORAHS HIGHMARKET 2.2 331 AM 1/30 CO-OP OBSERVER LOWVILLE 1.5 800 AM 1/30 SOCIAL MEDIA 1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE 1.0 500 AM 1/30 COCORAHS ...NIAGARA COUNTY... 1 NE LOCKPORT 0.7 700 AM 1/30 COCORAHS 1 NNE NORTH TONAWAND 0.5 700 AM 1/30 COCORAHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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