wxtrackercody Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Regardless of 97L, I'm more interested in the stalled front across the Gulf of Mexico. Most global models suggest an area of low pressure will try to get going as it heads towards the Texas coastline. With an upper-level low backing southwest out of the Bay of Campeche, we should see an anticyclone balloon across the region. Sneaky storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Regardless of 97L, I'm more interested in the stalled front across the Gulf of Mexico. Most global models suggest an area of low pressure will try to get going as it heads towards the Texas coastline. With an upper-level low backing southwest out of the Bay of Campeche, we should see an anticyclone balloon across the region. Sneaky storm? Agree. The WSI RPM model actually forms a small circulation with TS winds near the TX coast in about 72 hours. Bears at least keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 12z GFS makes things interesting for 97L. Keep in mind it does keep the LP weak and it takes a while to get going but we shouldn't pay attention to intensity this far out. Path OTS is blocked by potent storm that exits western African coast. A lot can (and will) change, but still something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 While the ongoing convection in the northern Gulf has little model support the latest ASCAT reveals a nearly closed circulation with 30kt+ winds on the east side. The 12z ECMWF has this area drifting SW and eventually bringing rains to the TX and LA coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 12z GFS makes things interesting for 97L. Keep in mind it does keep the LP weak and it takes a while to get going but we shouldn't pay attention to intensity this far out. Path OTS is blocked by potent storm that exits western African coast. A lot can (and will) change, but still something to keep in mind. The Euro doesn't do much with 97L (it's the vorticity near the Florida Keys), but it shows a separate entity developing from the Caribbean moving into the Gulf and affecting Texas sometime next week. Just another place to keep an eye on, although the Caribbean has been very hostile this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 The Euro doesn't do much with 97L (it's the vorticity near the Florida Keys), but it shows a separate entity developing from the Caribbean moving into the Gulf and affecting Texas sometime next week. Just another place to keep an eye on, although the Caribbean has been very hostile this year. Surprised it took people that long to post it. The GGEM and EURO show a storm. The GEFS wait until day 10 to try to spin up a weak storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 18z GEFS are more enthusiastic about 97L, this system's future is possibly a question of when rather than if. Looks like a East Coast storm if it is able to manifest in the next 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 18z GEFS are more enthusiastic about 97L, this system's future is possibly a question of when rather than if. Looks like a East Coast storm if it is able to manifest in the next 6 days. care to share some images... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 care to share some images... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 . A tropical wave is forecast to move from western Africa into the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean by early this weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for some development thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 We've already beat 2013 in terms of number of hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 I always hate when the NHC uses the term 'western Africa'. That covers a large amount of territory. I wish they would use country names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 I"ll pass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 I"ll pass! Delayed developement could set it on a collision course with Miami. Euro has been showing that. It's way out in the long-range, details can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 0Z GFS GA landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 CMC has it in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Delayed developement could set it on a collision course with Miami. Euro has been showing that. It's way out in the long-range, details can change. I think all he wanted to hear was "collision course with Miami" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 CMC has it in NC. And paralleling the coast into New Englad judging animation 240 hours out. But...it is the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 And paralleling the coast into New Englad judging animation 240 hours out. But...it is the CMC Post above has GFS land fall going into GA. So it's not just the CMC. Still way out. But, looks like a good upper level setup to keep storms moving more westerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 0Z GFS GA landfall. (and yes, I know, 10+ days out...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 A quick look at the next 6 to 14 days is suggesting lowering pressures across the SW Caribbean into the Western Gulf as Hurricane Cristobal exits to the NE into the N Atlantic and the Bermuda Ridge builds back into the East Coast and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The longer range ensemble guidance is already suggesting the potential for tropical mischief developing in the SW Caribbean Sea and moving generally NW into the Western Gulf in the first 10 days or so of September. These waters are virtually untouched with plenty of warm water with little to no shear and favorable instability. Nothing is forming at this time, but something to monitor as we begin the month of September and reach the peak of tropical development potential in the Atlantic Basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 NHC lowered the chances of formation for 97L. A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antillescontinues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable forsignificant development during the next couple of days, but couldbecome more conducive by the end of the week or this weekend whilethe system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. NHC is very bullish on the wave about to emerge from Africa. Looks like a fish from the get go, but could pose a problem to the Azores if it recurves faster than anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Early morning I km Rapid Scan Visible imagery and buoy day offshore of Louisiana suggest a weak surface low may be developing SSE of Morgan City, LA. Surface winds are light out of the SE to SSE E of Houma and further W in Morgan City to Vermillion Bay, NE surface winds are observed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Very good model support now for 97L developing in about 5 days (GFS, NAVGEM, CMC). A lot of dry air ahead of it until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Very good model support now for 97L developing in about 5 days (GFS, NAVGEM, CMC). A lot of dry air ahead of it until then. Until the Euro comes on board, I'm not to gung ho about development. NAVGEM and CMC are just eye candy when it comes to the tropics...wouldn't trust them farther than I can throw them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 26, 2014 Author Share Posted August 26, 2014 according to the models and looking at 97L dry air is the problem for the next 4 to 5 days but after that is when things improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Until the Euro comes on board, I'm not to gung ho about development. NAVGEM and CMC are just eye candy when it comes to the tropics...wouldn't trust them farther than I can throw them. You better hope it does not develop, the 500mb setup and analogs for this 97L scream landfalling TC. Looks like the GFS begins developing this wave around the Lesser Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 You better hope it does not develop, the 500mb setup and analogs for this 97L scream landfalling TC. Looks like the GFS begins developing this wave around the Lesser Antilles. gfs_mslp_pcpn_atltropics_18.png Looks like it deals with less than ideal conditions and shear from a ULL. The GFS shows a relatively weak system and dissipation by day 7. The pattern may be one for landfalling systems, but if the systems can't organize, then it's a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Looks like it deals with less than ideal conditions and shear from a ULL. The GFS shows a relatively weak system and dissipation by day 7. The pattern may be one for landfalling systems, but if the systems can't organize, then it's a moot point. Yes, however. It would be unwise to take the position of a ULL from 126 hours out with anything greater than a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Besides the monster tropical wave poised to move off the coast of Africa, the next place we need to look for development, in my opinion, is the western Caribbean and Western Gulf. Models have been lowering pressures down there for the past few runs and systems have traditionally be able to ramp up quickly in the Western Caribbean/Bay of Campeche. Should be interesting since the MJO should be favorable during that time frame. GFS and Euro have been consistent showing something down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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